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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread


eyewall

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55 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I managed two in one storm in late Feb. 2010.  First was while trying to move 8" of white cement (10" of 4:1 glop followed by 1"+ of 34F RA, LE nearly 3") with a snow scoop, while knowing that NYC was in a mid-20s snowicane.  2nd one came later when I checked cocorahs and saw the observer from Temple - 10 miles west and perhaps 250' higher - had reported 26.4".  We were only 3-5F from a repeat of what had hit the area exactly 41 years earlier, which only intensified the feeling.  Having gone flake-free from 3 KUs already that winter did not help.

That was my worst melt ever. Absolutely awful. Like Burlington was raining and NYC was pounding snow. And all we got was a light coating of slush when the storm occluded. Effing miserable, especially coming on the heels of watching the mid-Atlantic cash in twice in short succession. I was just stalking about whispering "red rum, red rum" for days after that one.

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

February 2011 you mean...lol.

Jan 12, 2011 you were obsessing over the temp rise...you were convinced it was a 12/30/00 repeat...we had to keep reassuring you that it you would eventually stabilize near 31-32F once the storm got cranking...think you ended up with a 16" paste bomb. Quite picturesque that storm was in Boston...it was 20"+ powder to the west, but probably the same impact.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 12, 2011 you were obsessing over the temp rise...you were convinced it was a 12/30/00 repeat...we had to keep reassuring you that it you would eventually stabilize near 31-32F once the storm got cranking...think you ended up with a 16" paste bomb. Quite picturesque that storm was in Boston...it was 20"+ powder to the west, but probably the same impact.

During my meltdown I threatened to move to FL if we got 3" of slop...was doing 3 hour sleep nights during the active period-no way could I still do that.

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weathafella

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UH OH! BOS UP TO 35! F U C K!!!

weathafella

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If this pulls a 12/30/00 I'm moving to Florida.

 

weathafella

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30.1 CF heading to Ray.

weathafella

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Jesus...30.2 Rocketing...

weathafella

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  On 1/12/2011 at 1:19 AM, BostonWX said:

Temp isnt budging here

 

Good luck. I'm worried and you should be too.

weathafella

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Stay...just fkg stay thermometer....

 

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We (on the coast) are so screwed. Oh well...should have known...

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  On 1/12/2011 at 1:25 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're fine...you just won't jackpot and will have to make due with a 33* snow-bomb for awhile....those rock....keep the sugar.

 

I'm ok if I don't change. I have the bile of 12/30/00 in my belly

 

weathafella

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Can you imagine the outrage of canceling everything for 3 inches of slop?

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  On 1/12/2011 at 1:29 AM, BostonWX said:

You're overreacting.. Roadways already covered here. Heavy snow right now

 

I am over reacting but I didn't expect things to unravel this quickly. And there are signs it's not transient. This low may come up our fannies.

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  On 1/12/2011 at 1:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Deep breaths, bro.....You are losing it like I usually do; never seen you like this. lol

 

Yeah this has touched my deepest meteorological traumas. 12/30/00 is right up there

weathafella

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31.7. Bleeding has slowed...drifting back down. I'm drifting into dreamland as I've been threatening to do for the past 2 hours...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jan_12_2011_Snow_Anal_box.png

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11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, and then Ginx talking about how it's ok going on a toboggan run with 1" of snow on the ground prior to 1/24. That almost put me over the edge. 

That might be the best back and forth...just hilarious.  

"Winter's great, out with the grandkids, pushing around 1-2" on top of semi-frozen mud, with a toboggan."

"Worst winter ever."

Then all hell breaks loose and it snows.  A lot.

 

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Just now, powderfreak said:

That might be the best back and forth...just hilarious.  

"Winter's great, out with the grandkids, pushing around 1-2", on top of semi-frozen mud, with a toboggan."

"Worst winter ever."

Then all hell breaks loose.

 

LOL, well we all saw the better look of the pattern heading into Feb, but I remember seeing that beautiful s/w coming out of the Midwest and all I wanted to do, was kick that little POS storm out to sea. Ironically that little storm sort of over-achieved here.

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13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Your kids learned all the swear words that day...just like when Scooter's kid learned them before the Jan 2015 blizzard....he completely trashed his basement because the Jan 24th storm was going to ruin the chance at the big one. Thankfully, James Nichols knocked some sense into him letting him know the gulf stream would save us.

Bryce asking daddy to tuck him in only to hear, "not happening, James!"

 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That might be the best back and forth...just hilarious.  

"Winter's great, out with the grandkids, pushing around 1-2" on top of semi-frozen mud, with a toboggan."

"Worst winter ever."

Then all hell breaks loose and it snows.  A lot.

 

A week earlier you could just see how that 4 wave hemispheric look was going to set up. Every teleconnection was in place and all we needed was some transient blocking to slow the flow. We went big leading up knowing that was the type of pattern that typically produced a big dog. In fact Jan 25 05 was leading analog for 2 weeks prior 

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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

A week earlier you could just see how that 4 wave hemispheric look was going to set up. Every teleconnection was in place and all we needed was some transient blocking to slow the flow. We went big leading up knowing that was the type of pattern that typically produced a big dog. In fact Jan 25 05 was leading analog for 2 weeks prior 

I had forgotten, but the EC ensembles actually showed the storm potential pretty good at around D10....this post was from Jan 16, 2015 that winter...

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/45226-january-2015-pattern-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=3260757

 

 

jan2015post.jpg

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15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I had forgotten, but the EC ensembles actually showed the storm potential pretty good at around D10....this post was from Jan 16, 2015 that winter...

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/45226-january-2015-pattern-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=3260757

 

 

jan2015post.jpg

2005 analog showed up 11 times in a 5 day period for the Jan storm 6-14 days out.

compday.t2hz_ILH0q_B.gif

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

2005 analog showed up 11 times in a 5 day period for the Jan storm 6-14 days out.

compday.t2hz_ILH0q_B.gif

Western ridge location was a huge match...though it was very close to being too far east in Jan 2015...we initially thought it might be, but that southern stream really phased nicely offshore and backed that sucker in. The Iceland block in 2005 was one big difference.

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8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Jan 2015 makes me vomit. So does Jan 2016 but to a lesser extent because it never was coming north of coastal CT. But Jan 2015 was the worst. 

Jan 2011 on the other hand...now thats an old school system - rain for the cape, slop for se ma, and a fanny pounding for the left.

2015 was a tough pill to swallow from HFD on west. Probably how I felt here in 2001. Juuust a bit outside. 

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28 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Is there a thread on here that talks about the Winter of 2017-2018? 

There was a lot of talk last week on the Nina...but we're just kind of waiting now to see what October brings. Fast start for snow cover in central Siberia...but that seems to be par for the course the past 4-5 years.

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17 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894

accuweather seems to also think it will be a cold and snowy winter in the northeast nevertheless. I’ve kinda been on that boat for a few months now given so many signals pointing to a colder/blocky winter

"Some chilly winter weather is in store for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, with January threatening to bring the coldest air of the season. Although however cold, low temperatures will pale in comparison to those in the northern Plains where the mercury is set to dip to minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit at times.

Meanwhile, the southern Plains, Southwest and California can expect a milder and drier winter than last season."

That opening to the article just makes me shake my head. For a company that espouses 90 day deterministic forecasts, they sure don't go too far out on the limb for winter. 

It'll get cold with winter weather in the Northeast? January might be the coldest month of the year? It'll be cold, but not nearly as cold as North Dakota? Well that just described just about every winter on record.

I am truly shocked that after a record breaking, drought busting winter last year that California can expect less precip this year.

:gun_bandana:

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these threads are amusing... 

a page or two of substantive analysis, borrowing from random and more conventional prognostic concepts/sources of technology, to synthesize novice yet still cogently intoned perspectives on the ensuing winters.. 

then, it somehow, some way, morphs into ten pages of watery-eyed sojourns through the nostalgic chapters of novel storms of yesteryear... Graphs and charts, and theoretical geophysics -- > 'wow, that was awesome' 

hahaha... it's great.  

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12 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

"Some chilly winter weather is in store for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, with January threatening to bring the coldest air of the season. Although however cold, low temperatures will pale in comparison to those in the northern Plains where the mercury is set to dip to minus 30 degrees Fahrenheit at times.

Meanwhile, the southern Plains, Southwest and California can expect a milder and drier winter than last season."

That opening to the article just makes me shake my head. For a company that espouses 90 day deterministic forecasts, they sure don't go too far out on the limb for winter. 

It'll get cold with winter weather in the Northeast? January might be the coldest month of the year? It'll be cold, but not nearly as cold as North Dakota? Well that just described just about every winter on record.

I am truly shocked that after a record breaking, drought busting winter last year that California can expect less precip this year.

:gun_bandana:

 

Yeah that was basically summing up climo. Northern plains might see a few -30F temps at times? There's a shocker. Even in torch winters, you'll prob get some nights near that in N MN and ND.

 

I'll stick my neck out there too:

-This February vacation week will probably be colder than last winter

-This March will probably be warmer than last winter

-There will be a cold/stormy stretch sometime in Dec/Jan

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah that was basically summing up climo. Northern plains might see a few -30F temps at times? There's a shocker. Even in torch winters, you'll prob get some nights near that in N MN and ND.

 

I'll stick my neck out there too:

-This February vacation week will probably be colder than last winter

-This March will probably be warmer than last winter

-There will be a cold/stormy stretch sometime in Dec/Jan

Don't forget to give an 8 day window of when there may be a snowstorm somewhere east of the MS river...and then consider it a win if it occurs 3 days before or after. I love those ones. 

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13 hours ago, Powderboy413 said:

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894

accuweather seems to also think it will be a cold and snowy winter in the northeast nevertheless. I’ve kinda been on that boat for a few months now given so many signals pointing to a colder/blocky winter

Lots of green for Tolland on that one.

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