Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

  So it was all a New Jersey conspiracy?  That's where some towns tried to sue NWS for their blizzard-prep costs.  (Then Scooter brings up NNE's most frustrating "winter" ever (at least in my lifetime.))  As awful as 15-16 was, we only got to miss one KU that season, not 4 like 6 years earlier.

At least it was an ok winter here (locally). I certainly can think of worse......but it was terrible up there. Who would have thought you'd be getting rain while Queens had a blizzard. 

Anyways, I'm still not certain on ENSO. That product posted earlier looked to suggest Nino, but I think Nino is not a guarantee. Ever since the MJO head fake of warm eastern pacific waters occurred back in March, guidance has been cooling  ever since.

 

 

[tamarack]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least it was an ok winter here (locally). I certainly can think of worse......but it was terrible up there. Who would have thought you'd be getting rain while Queens had a blizzard. 

Anyways, I'm still not certain on ENSO. That product posted earlier looked to suggest Nino, but I think Nino is not a guarantee. Ever since the MJO head fake of warm eastern pacific waters occurred back in March, guidance has been cooling  ever since.

 

 

Maybe a la nada year?  
And what made that late Feb storm even weirder was that our rain came on NE winds, same direction as NYC's snowicane.  Usually I like anomalous weirdness - still bragging up the storm in Dec 1973 that made a sudden left turn resulting in our place at BGR having 56F rain while my folks in NNJ were 15 with IP (and the west part of SNE had a major ice storm.)   But NNE is not supposed to get rain in Feb on NE winds. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll bet on winter time neg NAO returning shortly.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet on winter time neg NAO returning shortly.

Blonde squirrel tail forebods Epicosity

[weathafella]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Blonde squirrel tail forebods Epicosity

Speak to me.

[Ginx snewx]

36 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Speak to me.

At work

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

At work

I'll have to start looking.  Haven't seen that here yet but I'm mostly dodging the little bastards this summer so far.

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Blonde squirrel tail forebods Epicosity

So I looked and can't find the correlation-serious? 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So I looked and can't find the correlation-serious? 

lol twas a joke, hows the wrist

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

lol twas a joke, hows the wrist

Hurts!   Using my wife's carpal tunnel brace till I see the hand specialist Monday.

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Hurts!   Using my wife's carpal tunnel brace till I see the hand specialist Monday.

Heal well my friend 

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Heal well my friend 

Thanks Steve-gotta be able to shovel in 5 months.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm sure there's some salient works of both science and art filling the pages of this thread up to this point...

All I can add is that I seriously would like a front end loaded winter for a change.  Christ, it seems ...2007 or 2008 since the last time we had one of those?  ...10 years is long enough, thank you.   I want a legit regional snow/sleet threat on November 9 ... a faux Indian Summer that turned out over-forecast, that still leaves snow piles in protected spots.  Then, cave back to another snow/sleet ..ice storm threat around the 17th that heralds in an unusual winter cold snap, where the headlines speak of air temperatures more like January.  With a fledgling snow pack already in place, boom! we a blizzard ... two days before Thanks Giggedy.   .... Then we get into a weird pattern where we have no sun on the cold side of the ambient polar boundary.  With ice on the ponds and seemingly light snow around all the time, the air is blue tinted  at dawn and dusks.  The models and teleconnector packages they belong to, seem like they are loaded with three or four cold storm threats right out through xmass...  

I've opined if not commiserated this in the past but, I seriously have no use for winter after March 1 or so each year.  I won't lie and say March or April bombs annoying, if perhaps hypocritically so... (hey I'm human) but over the longer haul, my druthers would drive 70s and 80s in here on March 1 every year.  I think over the number of years I've been alive at this approximate latitude and longitude on this planet ( a number that seems to be growing out of control as of late...), I can recall maybe one year out of them where March featured a significant number of days in the 70s - knowing the climate around here doesn't for some reason change my loss interest when I start sensing the sun coming back. 

But after October 15 or so??  that's the stuff -

[tamarack]

That's really front loaded.     I'd go with all of that fantasy, except that my more northerly location allows for a kinder view of March as a winter month.  What I'd especially like is a non-Grinch Christmas with significant snow on the 25th.  In 19 years, that date has accumulated a total of 1.7", the least (by 1") for any date in Dec.  Furthermore, the 23rd and 24th are milder than any date after 12/12, and 5-6F milder than the 20th.  The 19-year cumulative snow depth days, which should ascend almost continuously thru Dec, actually decrease by 14% from the 23rd to the 25th.  Small sample size, but the temp "reversal", at least, will take some serious cold to level out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 6/20/2017 at 7:32 AM, ForestHillWx said:

Curious about any links to information pertaining to the Syrian migrant exodus being due to an AGW influenced drought, as opposed to a vicious civil war between various religious factions and a barbaric caliphate no country was prepared to deal with. 

Not saying it isn't possible, just asking for a friend. 

You are not likely to find much that's heavily vetted ... The "influence" nature is intensely theoretical, and almost if not out right impossible to quantify.

Having said that, climate models have been banging drought, among other calamities, as increasing in frequency as part of all this for year and years of researching the matter. 

There are plenty of articles out there within reach of lay-person searching on the web, that discuss/explain the combination of drought and Governmental abuses of resources and social issues...working together to trigger the mass migration.  They probably fed off one-another in that paradigm... But, the drought there is theoretically related/connected with shifting climate zones that have been taking place over recemt decades - nay sayers would argue that it's not AGW... okay, but it's definitely GW either way.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

That's really front loaded.     I'd go with all of that fantasy, except that my more northerly location allows for a kinder view of March as a winter month.  What I'd especially like is a non-Grinch Christmas with significant snow on the 25th.  In 19 years, that date has accumulated a total of 1.7", the least (by 1") for any date in Dec.  Furthermore, the 23rd and 24th are milder than any date after 12/12, and 5-6F milder than the 20th.  The 19-year cumulative snow depth days, which should ascend almost continuously thru Dec, actually decrease by 14% from the 23rd to the 25th.  Small sample size, but the temp "reversal", at least, will take some serious cold to level out. 

Ha! 

what I described though, those are basically the proportions of 1995 late autumn and winter through about January 15...  At least down this way.  But it was very gradient guided, too. I think CT didn't do as well as the Merrimack Valley area during the November aspect.  But up at UML we had white ground before TG and that turned into like 9 F cold during December with more snow events than I can remember for a Novie Dec combo - ... culminating in us getting clipped by the Megalopolis blizzard.   We also has a good 10" wet snow thump about a week after that bliz, and then the thaw swept in...

[tamarack]

45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha! 

what I described though, those are basically the proportions of 1995 late autumn and winter through about January 15...  At least down this way.  But it was very gradient guided, too. I think CT didn't do as well as the Merrimack Valley area during the November aspect.  But up at UML we had white ground before TG and that turned into like 9 F cold during December with more snow events than I can remember for a Novie Dec combo - ... culminating in us getting clipped by the Megalopolis blizzard.   We also has a good 10" wet snow thump about a week after that bliz, and then the thaw swept in...

The 3 big January rainstorms sort of spoiled that winter for me.  Farmington snowpack just shouldn't drop from 40" to 8" in January!  However, that winter included my largest and 3rd largest snowfalls in my 13 winters in Gardiner, 17.5" on Dec. 20-21 and 15.8" on March 7-8.  (#2 was 16.0" on Jan. 2-3, 1987.)  Pretty sad that we couldn't produce even one 18"+ event in that long a period.

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The 3 big January rainstorms sort of spoiled that winter for me.  Farmington snowpack just shouldn't drop from 40" to 8" in January!  However, that winter included my largest and 3rd largest snowfalls in my 13 winters in Gardiner, 17.5" on Dec. 20-21 and 15.8" on March 7-8.  (#2 was 16.0" on Jan. 2-3, 1987.)  Pretty sad that we couldn't produce even one 18"+ event in that long a period.

I would still take that winter over most in a heartbeat.

Yeah the January thaw was kind of spot on climo, but also extreme.   Similar result down here we went from 30 or 35 inches of pat down all the way to patches in open fields. I remember thinking there's no way we would lose all that but we did pretty much. Winter  rolled back in but it was never quite the same after.  That was an back end that i didn't mind so much because I knew we are breaking records and I wanted to continue to break the records ha.

I've never truly seen a winner go  end to end

[Typhoon Tip]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It would be nice to avoid the grinch this year. We've had some all time stinkers recently around that time of year 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It would be nice to avoid the grinch this year. We've had some all time stinkers recently around that time of year 

In 19 Decembers here, I've had snow-melting warm rains 12 years during the period Dec. 20-28.  Dropping the post-Christmas events still leaves 9, pretty bad for late Dec.  And those do not count 3 years with the requisite warm rains Dec. 20-25 but with the ground already bare - Grinch can't steal Christmas if there are no presents to steal.

Nearest winter to an end-to-ender here was 2007-08, though the shoulder months (Nov/Apr) were poor and the many many snowstorms included none larger than 12.5".  That winter also resulted in the most latitudinally stratified snow map of all that Will has prepared - SNE had average to awful snow, north to south.

[ORH_wxman]

5 hours ago, tamarack said:

In 19 Decembers here, I've had snow-melting warm rains 12 years during the period Dec. 20-28.  Dropping the post-Christmas events still leaves 9, pretty bad for late Dec.  And those do not count 3 years with the requisite warm rains Dec. 20-25 but with the ground already bare - Grinch can't steal Christmas if there are no presents to steal.

Nearest winter to an end-to-ender here was 2007-08, though the shoulder months (Nov/Apr) were poor and the many many snowstorms included none larger than 12.5".  That winter also resulted in the most latitudinally stratified snow map of all that Will has prepared - SNE had average to awful snow, north to south.

I would say northern SNE did better than average in 2007-2008....for example, Ray's area had a bit shy of 80 inches and over to Fitchburg which had just shy of 90 inches...both well above average for those locals (both areas average in the 60-65" range). I had 79.5" on winter hill which was a bit above my longterm 70" average while BOS logan airport had 52.0"...also a bit above average (44" or so). You are correct it got pretty bad quickly once you went south though...the southern half of CT/RI had a dreadful winter. Even Kevin's 'hood in Tolland up in the northern CT failed to reach 55" on my map which would suggest a bit below his average of high 50s. I think some places around BDR failed to reach 15".

I'd post the map, but I am at work, so I don't have it at my fingertips.

 

 

[tamarack]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would say northern SNE did better than average in 2007-2008....for example, Ray's area had a bit shy of 80 inches and over to Fitchburg which had just shy of 90 inches...both well above average for those locals (both areas average in the 60-65" range). I had 79.5" on winter hill which was a bit above my longterm 70" average while BOS logan airport had 52.0"...also a bit above average (44" or so). You are correct it got pretty bad quickly once you went south though...the southern half of CT/RI had a dreadful winter. Even Kevin's 'hood in Tolland up in the northern CT failed to reach 55" on my map which would suggest a bit below his average of high 50s. I think some places around BDR failed to reach 15".

I'd post the map, but I am at work, so I don't have it at my fingertips. 

 

 

I'm sure you're right.  I just remembered all the different colors in narrow stripes on that winter's map.
15" around BDR to 100"+ once in NNE, 140 at dendrite's (and my) yards, just shy of 200 at CAR.  And I don't think anyone in the region had a really big storm, though CAR measured 17.2" on Dec. 16-17.  Probably doesn't crack their top 20, however.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha! 

what I described though, those are basically the proportions of 1995 late autumn and winter through about January 15...  At least down this way.  But it was very gradient guided, too. I think CT didn't do as well as the Merrimack Valley area during the November aspect.  But up at UML we had white ground before TG and that turned into like 9 F cold during December with more snow events than I can remember for a Novie Dec combo - ... culminating in us getting clipped by the Megalopolis blizzard.   We also has a good 10" wet snow thump about a week after that bliz, and then the thaw swept in...

That's what I was about to say....

Cold, snow holiday season starting at halloweenie, right through the new year.

Perfect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would say northern SNE did better than average in 2007-2008....for example, Ray's area had a bit shy of 80 inches and over to Fitchburg which had just shy of 90 inches...both well above average for those locals (both areas average in the 60-65" range). I had 79.5" on winter hill which was a bit above my longterm 70" average while BOS logan airport had 52.0"...also a bit above average (44" or so). You are correct it got pretty bad quickly once you went south though...the southern half of CT/RI had a dreadful winter. Even Kevin's 'hood in Tolland up in the northern CT failed to reach 55" on my map which would suggest a bit below his average of high 50s. I think some places around BDR failed to reach 15".

I'd post the map, but I am at work, so I don't have it at my fingertips.

 

 

I had 73.5"...but but a solid winter, yes.

[ORH_wxman]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had 73.5"...but but a solid winter, yes.

For some reason I thought you had like 77...but you're right now that I'm back home and can reference the map.

 

 

[dmillz25]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For some reason I thought you had like 77...but you're right now that I'm back home and can reference the map.

 

 

Sheesh only had 15" here

[J.Spin]

23 hours ago, tamarack said:

Nearest winter to an end-to-ender here was 2007-08, though the shoulder months (Nov/Apr) were poor and the many many snowstorms included none larger than 12.5".  That winter also resulted in the most latitudinally stratified snow map of all that Will has prepared - SNE had average to awful snow, north to south.

 

17 hours ago, tamarack said:

15" around BDR to 100"+ once in NNE, 140 at dendrite's (and my) yards, just shy of 200 at CAR.  And I don't think anyone in the region had a really big storm, though CAR measured 17.2" on Dec. 16-17.  Probably doesn't crack their top 20, however.

 

I was curious to see how similar things were over here in the Northern Greens, so I checked my data for 2007-2008 and indeed they fit right in with your thoughts.  The largest storm here was only 19.2” from 12/3 – 12/6, and we were similar to CAR for the 12/16-12/17 storm with a 16.5” total.

 

Those were actually the top two storms I have in my data, so there was nothing even approaching two feet.  The top five storms here that season were:

 

1. 19.2” (12/3-12/6)

2. 16.5” (12/16-12/17)

3. 16.4” (2/6-2/8)

4. 10.6” (1/1-1/2)

5. 10.2” (3/19-3/21)

 

So it’s easy to see that things quickly fell below a foot once out of the top three storms.  But regardless, it was definitely a snowy season.  I remember it for having a lot of consistency, right in line with your thoughts as an end-to-ender, and none of the skiers around here would complain in the least if we had another one of those.  I bulleted some of the season’s defining parameters in my data:

 

• Dearth of massive storms (max 19.2”)

• Plentiful number of storms (53)

• Plentiful snowfall to the north (203.2”)

• Good snowpack (2,518 SDD)

• Weak shoulder months/condensed snowfall season (150 days)

 

In my annual summary table you can see where 2007-2008 fits within the past decade – the red numbers show it holds the minima with respect to late snowfall start and length of snowfall season, but maxima with respect to snowfall and SDD.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ... in any case ... "true" end-to-end winters are exceptional -

Will, it may just be my personal climate experience on matters, but I don't really think of Apr as being "fairly" include-able though - even as a shoulder month. 

We have snow from time to time in that month... but so as could be said about May's in general, just "supposedly" much rarer.  We wouldn't count on May as a book-end value.  I think of April as just a throw away month ... really. It's like the climate time forgot; the actual physical universe just gave up, threw hands, and let Satan do as it will with that month because come hell or high water ...it always finds a way to disappoint weather enthusiasts of both hot and cold focus.  

Haha.  Seriously though, I would include March as the ending shoulder... But, you know - our sub-forum includes NNE ...even though we distinguish it inside our realm.  And April is fairly their shoulder month.  Perhaps RUT-CON line is March 15 to April 15, and down here is March.  

The only way to really be scientific is to do some sort of tercile statistical correlation between the three, cold --> misery mist --> hot, with the last dates of frost and average snows being the focus of the study - maybe start there. 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... in any case ... "true" end-to-end winters are exceptional -

Will, it may just be my personal climate experience on matters, but I don't really think of Apr as being "fairly" include-able though - even as a shoulder month. 

We have snow from time to time in that month... but so as could be said about May's in general, just "supposedly" much rarer.  We wouldn't count on May as a book-end value.  I think of April as just a throw away month ... really. It's like the climate time forgot; the actual physical universe just gave up, threw hands, and let Satan do as it will with that month because come hell or high water ...it always finds a way to disappoint weather enthusiasts of both hot and cold focus.  

Haha.  Seriously though, I would include March as the ending shoulder... But, you know - our sub-forum includes NNE ...even though we distinguish it inside our realm.  And April is fairly their shoulder month.  Perhaps RUT-CON line is March 15 to April 15, and down here is March.  

The only way to really be scientific is to do some sort of tercile statistical correlation between the three, cold --> misery mist --> hot, with the last dates of frost and average snows being the focus of the study - maybe start there. 

Yeah I can agree using whole months is kind of imprecise anyway...esp at our latitude. If we include November as a shoulder month, then March looks so much more wintry...March has an average temp 6F colder than November and of course is way snowier (using ORH, 14" vs 3" avg snowfall)...that's a lot of difference in both snow and cold. April OTOH, has an average temperature 5F warmer than November despite similar average snowfall, so it is definitely not its equal. It's almost like the period maybe from  March 8-April 8 or something is probably a bit more accurate for the late season shoulder and for the early season, it's probably more like Nov 8 - Dec 8. Obviously we can get snowstorms before November 8th and after April 8th, but both are pretty rare...usually our snow outside those dates are the nuisance variety versus legit high impact storms.