Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[ORH_wxman]

31 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah ecmwf sips has Nina too.  

Yeah I think the only question now is whether its weak or moderate. I don't think the difference is that huge in New England between the two...though a moderate would introduce higher variance in the snowfall I think. If we have any cold air to the north, moderate tends to be really good, but if it's a warmish pattern in Canada, then we're usually 100% boned.

[nzucker]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like it's only strengthening still in the subsurface plots....and the models are finally starting to catch up...the dynamic average is now La Nina instead of neutral:

 

 

It looks as if some much colder water is appearing about 100-200 miles west of the Peruvian Coast...some shades of purple (-3C anomalies) beginning to show up. I wouldn't be shocked if we ended up with a moderate Nina. Could have a significant effect on global temperatures and the cryosphere, too, if the volcanic activity also pans out with this strong of a -ENSO event.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, nzucker said:

It looks as if some much colder water is appearing about 100-200 miles west of the Peruvian Coast...some shades of purple (-3C anomalies) beginning to show up. I wouldn't be shocked if we ended up with a moderate Nina. Could have a significant effect on global temperatures and the cryosphere, too, if the volcanic activity also pans out with this strong of a -ENSO event.

 

That area to the north of the equator is still a little bit above normal...but much cooler than it was...we'll see if we go more full blown Nina look in the next 2 months. We can see the waters of Baja cooling now (they were previous roasting the past few years)...and if it spreads southward to meet up with the ENSO region, then we'll have a more full blown Nina look.

[nzucker]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That area to the north of the equator is still a little bit above normal...but much cooler than it was...we'll see if we go more full blown Nina look in the next 2 months. We can see the waters of Baja cooling now (they were previous roasting the past few years)...and if it spreads southward to meet up with the ENSO region, then we'll have a more full blown Nina look.

The immediate area around Baja has gone below normal in the 9/28 update, but there is still lots of warm water to the southwest, extending all the way to Asia. However, I see small areas of blue showing up in the Central Pacific and Indian Ocean, a sign that the La Nina is beginning to have an effect on overall global SSTs. I definitely notice a very "classic" La Nina/-PDO look developing with a cold Antarctic/Humboldt Current, a cold pool near Baja, and warming near Kamchatka and Japan.

Do you think global SSTs can get as low as 2008? If we see a robust La Nina and a volcanic eruption, could that bring us back to the SSTs of 10 years ago? Obviously there is increased anthropogenic forcing to contend with, as well as the fact that 2008 was an unusual low point for global temperatures/SSTs in the last 20 years. However, I see some similarity with the 2007-2009 period...a multi-year La Nina following a fairly strong El Nino, a -PDO signature, and cold outbreaks in the western US with a warmer East. Interestingly, 2008-2009 (along with 13-14/14-15) was one of the last winters to see a fairly strong PV in North America...January 2009 had some very impressive cold, with Maine setting its all time record low of -50F at Black River. A lot of the intervening years like 09-10 and 15-16 have had the PV over Siberia/Russia for the majority of the cold season. The cold has been limited to Eurasia so far this fall, but it's very early. Could it change?

Thoughts?

[nzucker]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think the only question now is whether its weak or moderate. I don't think the difference is that huge in New England between the two...though a moderate would introduce higher variance in the snowfall I think. If we have any cold air to the north, moderate tends to be really good, but if it's a warmish pattern in Canada, then we're usually 100% boned.

Do you think the fact that the La Nina is east-based can help us? 07-08, 10-11, and 11-12 were largely west-based -ENSO events. Is it possible that our La Nina is just young and will eventually start migrating towards the west, or is this a fundamentally different SST signature that will intensify but not shift direction?

If a west-based El Nino is good for snowfall and cold weather in the East, it would follow that an east-based La Nina would be advantageous. I wonder if this is really true. And I wonder how east-based an event can remain as it strengthens. Just as El Ninos tend to get more east-based as they strengthen with warm water piling up against Peru, do La Ninas tend to get more west-based as they strengthen? Can one have a strong, east-based La Nina? Any analogs featuring that SST pattern, or are the only east-based La Ninas weak?

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, nzucker said:

The immediate area around Baja has gone below normal in the 9/28 update, but there is still lots of warm water to the southwest, extending all the way to Asia. However, I see small areas of blue showing up in the Central Pacific and Indian Ocean, a sign that the La Nina is beginning to have an effect on overall global SSTs. I definitely notice a very "classic" La Nina/-PDO look developing with a cold Antarctic/Humboldt Current, a cold pool near Baja, and warming near Kamchatka and Japan.

Do you think global SSTs can get as low as 2008? If we see a robust La Nina and a volcanic eruption, could that bring us back to the SSTs of 10 years ago? Obviously there is increased anthropogenic forcing to contend with, as well as the fact that 2008 was an unusual low point for global temperatures/SSTs in the last 20 years. However, I see some similarity with the 2007-2009 period...a multi-year La Nina following a fairly strong El Nino, a -PDO signature, and cold outbreaks in the western US with a warmer East. Interestingly, 2008-2009 (along with 13-14/14-15) was one of the last winters to see a fairly strong PV in North America...January 2009 had some very impressive cold, with Maine setting its all time record low of -50F at Black River. A lot of the intervening years like 09-10 and 15-16 have had the PV over Siberia/Russia for the majority of the cold season. The cold has been limited to Eurasia so far this fall, but it's very early. Could it change?

Thoughts?

 

If Agung is as strong as the 1963 eruption, then we would have a good chance of seeing global temps go back a decade. Pinatubo put up an anomaly of around +0.2C in 1992...that was fighting a pretty potent El Nino too. That was a similar anomaly to 1977 during a weak El Nino. Only a couple post-Chicon years during La Nina in the mid '80s were colder.

 

Agung was helped by the fact we were already heading into a La Nina...so it put up a global temp anomaly of -0.20C...you had to go back to 1935 to beat that...though some datasets have the 1956 La Nina as a little colder. But that was a pretty strong Nina.

 

Hard to say how strong Agung will be...it might just be a lot of talk and not much impact if it ends up as a VEI 4 or lower. But who knows...if it ends up like 1963 or even stronger, then it could have a huge effect. It prob wouldn't really effect our winter that much...if anything, it might tend to give us a +AO which could mean warmer. The following winter after that though would probably have a brutally cold cyosphere...and we could get some good outbreaks. (we saw this in 1993 and 1994 after Pinatubo)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

The immediate area around Baja has gone below normal in the 9/28 update, but there is still lots of warm water to the southwest, extending all the way to Asia. However, I see small areas of blue showing up in the Central Pacific and Indian Ocean, a sign that the La Nina is beginning to have an effect on overall global SSTs. I definitely notice a very "classic" La Nina/-PDO look developing with a cold Antarctic/Humboldt Current, a cold pool near Baja, and warming near Kamchatka and Japan.

Do you think global SSTs can get as low as 2008? If we see a robust La Nina and a volcanic eruption, could that bring us back to the SSTs of 10 years ago? Obviously there is increased anthropogenic forcing to contend with, as well as the fact that 2008 was an unusual low point for global temperatures/SSTs in the last 20 years. However, I see some similarity with the 2007-2009 period...a multi-year La Nina following a fairly strong El Nino, a -PDO signature, and cold outbreaks in the western US with a warmer East. Interestingly, 2008-2009 (along with 13-14/14-15) was one of the last winters to see a fairly strong PV in North America...January 2009 had some very impressive cold, with Maine setting its all time record low of -50F at Black River. A lot of the intervening years like 09-10 and 15-16 have had the PV over Siberia/Russia for the majority of the cold season. The cold has been limited to Eurasia so far this fall, but it's very early. Could it change?

Thoughts?

The 07 Nino was nothing like the 2016 event intensitywise.

[CoastalWx]

 I have zero feeling for this winter. I suppose if anything getting ridging into the polar regions may be easier than previous years, but then again..we have had a locally active solar period lately. I have some doubts currently with Greenland ridging. I'm still focused on the Pacific and there isn't a clear sign to me yet out there.

[EasternLI]

17 hours ago, nzucker said:

Do you think the fact that the La Nina is east-based can help us? 07-08, 10-11, and 11-12 were largely west-based -ENSO events. Is it possible that our La Nina is just young and will eventually start migrating towards the west, or is this a fundamentally different SST signature that will intensify but not shift direction?

If a west-based El Nino is good for snowfall and cold weather in the East, it would follow that an east-based La Nina would be advantageous. I wonder if this is really true. And I wonder how east-based an event can remain as it strengthens. Just as El Ninos tend to get more east-based as they strengthen with warm water piling up against Peru, do La Ninas tend to get more west-based as they strengthen? Can one have a strong, east-based La Nina? Any analogs featuring that SST pattern, or are the only east-based La Ninas weak?

 

There's a paper out there on this. Better chance of neg. NAO?

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

Quote

Although the two types of La Niña can produce a similar response in the atmosphere over the north Pacific, distinctly different teleconnection patterns are found over the NA–WE sector. For the EP La Niña, the NA–WE region experiences the climate anomalies resembling a negative NAO pattern accompanied by a weakening Atlantic jet.

 

[nzucker]

On 9/29/2017 at 4:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The 07 Nino was nothing like the 2016 event intensitywise.

This is true, but it's a similar progression ENSO wise. A moderate or strong El Nino followed by a multi year La Nina with concomitant drops in the PDO. We also had very low solar activity in 2008-2009, and we may be headed there again. Looking at analogs, you can never find exact matches, but you must search for similarities. Something like a 08-09 Winter with a colder Dec/Jan and warmer Feb, a well as higher snowfall to the north, and the coldest weather in the Lakes/MW, wouldn't totally surprise me. Considering that 15-16 was a stronger Nino, imparting more warmth to the globe, and the 10 extra years of anthropogenic warming, a slightly milder version of the 08-09 winter wouldn't surprise me. 

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 I have zero feeling for this winter. I suppose if anything getting ridging into the polar regions may be easier than previous years, but then again..we have had a locally active solar period lately. I have some doubts currently with Greenland ridging. I'm still focused on the Pacific and there isn't a clear sign to me yet out there.

I think it's still early. Usually indices like fall snow cover and the October -NAO are important in our forecast, and we don't have any data on those yet.

Also, when ENSO is weak, the forecast is always tougher. Strong ENSO winters like 15-16 make for easy predictions: warm in the North, cooler and wetter in the Southeast. Whereas weak ENSO winters have a lot of variation..there was a huge difference in sensible weather between the weak La Nina in 08-09 and the weak La Nina in 11-12. Overall, a weak Nina with a -QBO would seem to imply a colder regime for the East, but the polar indices will play a big role and those are usually variable when ENSO is not the dominant factor.

[weathafella]

2008-09 is one of the underrated winters of recent decades at least in New England.  Speaking for Boston, well above normal snow with solid pack.  

I think we end up more 2007-08 vs 2008-09.  Jmho

[nzucker]

46 minutes ago, weathafella said:

2008-09 is one of the underrated winters of recent decades at least in New England.  Speaking for Boston, well above normal snow with solid pack.  

I think we end up more 2007-08 vs 2008-09.  Jmho

I think the gradient may be a little sharper than 08-09 due to the La Nina appearing more moderate than weak. However, the 07-08 La Nina had a very cold Pacific and a very -PDO. I think we're going to end up somewhere in between the two as I don't expect the cooling to be that deep and widespread. You can see January 2008 had a deep GoA cold pool and a La Nina that stretched all the way from the coast of Peru to nearly Indonesia. 

[weathafella]

38 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I think the gradient may be a little sharper than 08-09 due to the La Nina appearing more moderate than weak. However, the 07-08 La Nina had a very cold Pacific and a very -PDO. I think we're going to end up somewhere in between the two as I don't expect the cooling to be that deep and widespread. You can see January 2008 had a deep GoA cold pool and a La Nina that stretched all the way from the coast of Peru to nearly Indonesia. 

Sure is a different look today vs same date in 2007.

 

.

[weathafella]

What I mean is we may end up in the same place but the effect may well not be as similar given today's look and in general the 3-4 month sensible wx lag.

[nzucker]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What I mean is we may end up in the same place but the effect may well not be as similar given today's look and in general the 3-4 month sensible wx lag.

I think the Nina looks very east based and that could have effects down the line even if we do evolve to a more dominant west-based Nina in a few months. I wouldn't be surprised if the picture is somewhere in between 07-08/08-09/70-71. Big wild card will be the NAO/AO. If ENSO stays very weak, we may see a pretty variable pattern this winter rather than one thing being dominant. 

[Damage In Tolland]

We are in big trouble in SNE

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, nzucker said:

This is true, but it's a similar progression ENSO wise. A moderate or strong El Nino followed by a multi year La Nina with concomitant drops in the PDO. We also had very low solar activity in 2008-2009, and we may be headed there again. Looking at analogs, you can never find exact matches, but you must search for similarities. Something like a 08-09 Winter with a colder Dec/Jan and warmer Feb, a well as higher snowfall to the north, and the coldest weather in the Lakes/MW, wouldn't totally surprise me. Considering that 15-16 was a stronger Nino, imparting more warmth to the globe, and the 10 extra years of anthropogenic warming, a slightly milder version of the 08-09 winter wouldn't surprise me. 

I think it's still early. Usually indices like fall snow cover and the October -NAO are important in our forecast, and we don't have any data on those yet.

Also, when ENSO is weak, the forecast is always tougher. Strong ENSO winters like 15-16 make for easy predictions: warm in the North, cooler and wetter in the Southeast. Whereas weak ENSO winters have a lot of variation..there was a huge difference in sensible weather between the weak La Nina in 08-09 and the weak La Nina in 11-12. Overall, a weak Nina with a -QBO would seem to imply a colder regime for the East, but the polar indices will play a big role and those are usually variable when ENSO is not the dominant factor.

Can't wait for the weenies to track daily voodoo advancement of Siberian snowpack.

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are in big trouble in SNE

Feel bad for CT.

[CoastalWx]

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

2008-09 is one of the underrated winters of recent decades at least in New England.  Speaking for Boston, well above normal snow with solid pack.  

I think we end up more 2007-08 vs 2008-09.  Jmho

I always say the same thing. Probably won't have that, but boy...that was a great winter here locally. That was a top 10 here snowfall wise...very sneaky good winter.

[Baroclinic Zone]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't wait for the weenies to track daily voodoo advancement of Siberian snowpack.

Like this?

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50278-and-we-begin/

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Like this?

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50278-and-we-begin/

Nah that's the thread Jerry always starts. I mean when weenies start to build statues of Judah Cohen.

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah that's the thread Jerry always starts. I mean when weenies start to build statues of Judah Cohen.

Although there may be something to the Siberian snowfall in October,  he sure as he!! has NOT figured out how to use it as a reliable forecasting tool no matter how he tries to spin it or claim otherwise.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Although there may be something to the Siberian snowfall in October,  he sure as he!! has NOT figured out how to use it as a reliable forecasting tool no matter how he tries to spin it or claim otherwise.

Look I am all for finding new tools...and there is a physical reasoning behind it. However, there are signals that simply overpower it as we have seen lately. I'm also not a fan of trying to claim you're right when it's all for the wrong reasons. When money is thrown at you for research such as Judah's case...I understand you need to sell the sizzle, but you're a bad scientist when you do that. So in the coming weeks...we track it like everything else...but it's important to respect all the the nuances in the atmosphere that govern the winter pattern.

[EasternLI]

Since you guys brought it up, I've read some recent work on the subject suggesting Nov being of more importance than Oct. At least in a NAO sense.

Go to the PDF in the below link to see the whole thing:

http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/handle/2445/105794

Quote

Abstract: Many recent studies reveal that sea ice concentration (SIC) in the eastern Arctic and snow cover extent (SCE) over central Eurasia in late autumn are potential predictors of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We used maximum covariance analysis (MCA) to investigate the links between autumn SIC in the Barents-Kara Seas (BK) and SCE over Eurasia (EUR) with winter (DJF) sea level pressure in the North-Atlantic-European region over 1979-2015. The most significant covariability mode for SIC/BK appears in November. The MCA modes for SCE/EUR are not statistically significant, but November shows higher correlation and some statistically significant anomalies preceding the winter NAO. Changes in temperature, specific humidity, SIC/BK and SCE/EUR in November are modulated by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the Ural-Siberian region that appears to be a precursor of the winter NAO.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Since you guys brought it up, I've read some recent work on the subject suggesting Nov being of more importance than Oct. At least in a NAO sense.

Go to the PDF in the below link to see the whole thing:

http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/handle/2445/105794

 

I do wonder if ENSO and tropical forcing simply dictate all these patterns that these papers are based off of. If you have some sort of background signal of tropical forcing somewhere between the IO and eastern Pacific...it will have an affect on the Rossy Wave pattern. Favorable patterns for the SCE probably tie into the base state of ENSO somehow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, nzucker said:

I think the Nina looks very east based and that could have effects down the line even if we do evolve to a more dominant west-based Nina in a few months. I wouldn't be surprised if the picture is somewhere in between 07-08/08-09/70-71. Big wild card will be the NAO/AO. If ENSO stays very weak, we may see a pretty variable pattern this winter rather than one thing being dominant. 

The la nina looks weaker and more modoki (east based) like to me relative to 2007.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are in big trouble in SNE

I don't feel that way at all.

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't feel that way at all.

Yeah I don't really see anything glaring to me that says to cancel winter. Just avoid the one eyed weenie in the Bering Sea.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don't really see anything glaring to me that says to cancel winter. Just avoid the one eyed weenie in the Bering Sea.

It’s been there for 2 months. Why should we just expect it to vanish once winter arrives? 

Stout SE ridge and moderate Nina. 

I don’t see any positives currently 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been there for 2 months. Why should we just expect it to vanish once winter arrives? 

Stout SE ridge and moderate Nina. 

I don’t see any positives currently 

 

 

I don't see it.