Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our floor definitely rises a lot if we avoid the AK death vortex. Our latitude will do enough heavy lifting in most patterns absent the death vortex...only if we got some insane exotic blocking would it become a liability...and even then, not sure that would happen in a La Nina or even weak Nino (see exotic blocking episodes of Feb '69 and huge blocking of December 1995 and March 2001)...I typically only start worrying about exotic blocking when it's a southern stream dominated regime and we don't normally see that until El Nino becomes moderate...and of course, we're not considering El Nino at all this winter.

Will, that is a great point....I had never though of that.

Tough to find blocking attributable screwgies around here during a la nina.

Weak nino we have, but its rare.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Some good ones in the weak/mod years for La Nina

 

Yea, I posted a composite weak-mod la nina H5, D-M map on my blog last night...very pronounced negative EPO and modest, but very discernible negative NAO.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I posted a composite weak-mod la nina H5, D-M map on my blog last night...very pronounced negative EPO and modest, but very discernible negative NAO.

I think most would take there chances with that H5 depiction, Some blocking would help further south if it actually develops.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I haven't seen any evidence of a strong la nina.

Chuck has been all over this event, and has been rightfully the most aggressive, and even he has not mentioned strong.

He feels moderate is a decent possibility and weak is a lock.

Personally, as soon as it became apparent that we would not have an el nino, I was rooting for a weak la nina.....I'd take my chances with a weak ENSO, as opposed to neutral.

[CT Rain]

Where should we put the over/under for Mount Tolland snowfall this season? I say 35" (this also includes the exaggeration for slant sticking)

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Where should we put the over/under for Mount Tolland snowfall this season? I say 35" (this also includes the exaggeration for slant sticking)

60".

[tamarack]

44 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Sign me up for 70-71. Great winter here. Even had a monster blizzard on Christmas eve/Christmas day. If that repeated it would go a long way to rinse that bitter taste of the last several festive torches out of my mouth.

185cms for the month of Dec.  We take...lol

So would I. 
That would be a record for any month for almost every site in Maine.  A couple places in the western Mts had more in Feb. 1969 and the Eastport-Machias area got more in Feb. 2015, but top months elsewhere tend to fall 15-30 cm short of that.

[OSUmetstud]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

So would I. 
That would be a record for any month for almost every site in Maine.  A couple places in the western Mts had more in Feb. 1969 and the Eastport-Machias area got more in Feb. 2015, but top months elsewhere tend to fall 15-30 cm short of that.

Thats snowier than any st. Johns month.  Our snowiest is dec. 2000 with 173 cm. 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Where should we put the over/under for Mount Tolland snowfall this season? I say 35" (this also includes the exaggeration for slant sticking)

Ryan.. I know you guys are on board for a rat kind of winter.. are you basing it on the strong Nina or other factors as well?

[OSUmetstud]

I have noticed that Nina's tend to have the same front heavy flavor that they do in the northeast...with December often being the snowiest month.  I'd rather have weak than moderate.  We managed 181" in last winter's weak Nina.  

[Hazey]

38 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Thats snowier than any st. Johns month.  Our snowiest is dec. 2000 with 173 cm. 

Wow really? I would've thought YYT would have a higher total month. I just skimmed the historical data for YHZ and I believe 70-71 was their snowiest winter. 474.8cms.

Here are the December stats. Nearly 80cms between 24-27 helped pad the stats.

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1961-01-01|2012-09-13&dlyRange=1953-01-01|2012-09-13&mlyRange=1953-01-01|2012-09-01&StationID=6358&Prov=NS&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=8&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=Halifax&timeframe=2&Month=12&Day=28&Year=1970

[Hazey]

38 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I have noticed that Nina's tend to have the same front heavy flavor that they do in the northeast...with December often being the snowiest month.  I'd rather have weak than moderate.  We managed 181" in last winter's weak Nina.  

Yeah we did alright here with 403cms but snow retention was a biotch. Made it feel like hardly anything fell.

[CT Rain]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan.. I know you guys are on board for a rat kind of winter.. are you basing it on the strong Nina or other factors as well?

I honestly have no idea. Haven't looked at a thing. I'll be invested once I see a snowstorm show up on a D7 prog. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

I think most would take there chances with that H5 depiction, Some blocking would help further south if it actually develops.

Maybe it is because I’m the furthest sw you can get or maybe it is because I’ve “busted” on recent big events that had zero blocking.....but I need it more than anyone else. Even king ween in cape cod doesnt need it like I do. 

I finally got a tucky system in March, but no block and the goods sailed above me. 

block and tuck, block and tuck. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

47 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I honestly have no idea. Haven't looked at a thing. I'll be invested once I see a snowstorm show up on a D7 prog. 

We look forward to your CT winter outlook on Dec 1st then. 

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Maybe it is because I’m the furthest sw you can get or maybe it is because I’ve “busted” on recent big events that had zero blocking.....but I need it more than anyone else. Even king ween in cape cod doesnt need it like I do. 

I finally got a tucky system in March, but no block and the goods sailed above me. 

block and tuck, block and tuck. 

The folks in the Mid atlantic would also agree with you................

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Some good ones in the weak/mod years for La Nina

 

Since I like fiddling with numbers, especially those dealing with forests or weather, I looked at Farmington snowfall for these winters - also for the 22 that are missing (and presumed ENSO-neutral.) 

For reference, Farmington's average snowfall 1893 on is 89.49".  For the 67 winters 50-51 on, it's 90.05".  Top winter is 164" in 1968-69 (weak Nino); bottom is 43" in 1980-81 (Neutral, and just 1.0" more than the weak-Nino 79-80.)

Going from warm PAC to cold, and using 60" and 120" as thresholds for ratters and bumpers:

ENSO   Strength  N     Snow   #<60" #120"+

El Nino   V,Strg    3     57.6       2        0

El Nino   Strong   3    103.5      0        0

El Nino    Mod      6     74.0      0        0   (4 of 6 fell 62.4" to 70.5".  Lots of semi-rats.)

El Nino   Weak    12    94.3       2       3

Neutral   N/A      22    91.0       2       2

La Nina   Weak    12   93.0       2       4

La Nina    Mod      6   102.9      0       2

La Nina   Strong    3    77.9       1       0

For Farmington's 124 winters, 9.7% were beneath the ratter line, 12.9% above the bumper.  The 67 winters above had somewhat more extremes, 13.4% ratter, 16.4% bumper.

As folks with far more knowledge than me have said, weak Nino to Moderate Nina looks like the places to be, and perhaps it's only fitting that the neutral winters averaged closer to the overall average than any other group.  I think the strong Nino average is the oddball, though SSS.  All 3 winters were AN, and 57-58, though well AN for temps, had 118.6".  Sometimes things line up to buck the odds.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Since I like fiddling with numbers, especially those dealing with forests or weather, I looked at Farmington snowfall for these winters - also for the 22 that are missing (and presumed ENSO-neutral.) 

For reference, Farmington's average snowfall 1893 on is 89.49".  For the 67 winters 50-51 on, it's 90.05".  Top winter is 164" in 1968-69 (weak Nino); bottom is 43" in 1980-81 (Neutral, and just 1.0" more than the weak-Nino 79-80.)

Going from warm PAC to cold, and using 60" and 120" as thresholds for ratters and bumpers:

ENSO   Strength  N     Snow   #<60" #120"+

El Nino   V,Strg    3     57.6       2        0

El Nino   Strong   3    103.5      0        0

El Nino    Mod      6     74.0      0        0   (4 of 6 fell 62.4" to 70.5".  Lots of semi-rats.)

El Nino   Weak    12    94.3       2       3

Neutral   N/A      22    91.0       2       2

La Nina   Weak    12   93.0       2       4

La Nina    Mod      6   102.9      0       2

La Nina   Strong    3    77.9       1       0

For Farmington's 124 winters, 9.7% were beneath the ratter line, 12.9% above the bumper.  The 67 winters above had somewhat more extremes, 13.4% ratter, 16.4% bumper.

As folks with far more knowledge than me have said, weak Nino to Moderate Nina looks like the places to be, and perhaps it's only fitting that the neutral winters averaged closer to the overall average than any other group.  I think the strong Nino average is the oddball, though SSS.  All 3 winters were AN, and 57-58, though well AN for temps, had 118.6".  Sometimes things line up to buck the odds.

I was kind of surprised when i looked back at those years for PWM in the weak/mod La nina seasons, There were a lot of subpar years but that would lead me to believe it was all relative to there location on the coast as the CAR numbers were quite favorable on the avg being inland.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Always appreciate a good tamarack post informing of us of each day that it snowed at East Moose Sack, ME during the week of Feb 3, 1966, and how that compares to the snow at his place the week of March 9, 1971.

[mreaves]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Always appreciate a good tamarack post informing of us of each day that it snowed at East Moose Sack, ME during the week of Feb 3, 1966, and how that compares to the snow at his place the week of March 9, 1971.

Easy there Tip, errr I mean Ray.

[klw]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Always appreciate a good tamarack post informing of us of each day that it snowed at East Moose Sack, ME during the week of Feb 3, 1966, and how that compares to the snow at his place the week of March 9, 1971.

If you ever make it to  East Moose Sack, Maine and eat at the Red Bud Diner, skip the Moose Fries and stay with pancakes.

[tamarack]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Always appreciate a good tamarack post informing of us of each day that it snowed at East Moose Sack, ME during the week of Feb 3, 1966, and how that compares to the snow at his place the week of March 9, 1971.

In your honor, I'm going to inflict the board with even more. 

Looking to portray the "Length and Breadth of Maine" (title of an old book with more Maine numerical trivia than most folks could comprehend), I took data for CAR and PWM along with Farmington.  The repeat table shows percent of the 50-51 thru 16-17 average for each ENSO condition.

ENSO   Strength  N     CAR     PWM    Farmington
(Average snowfall   116.55"    70.95"   90.05")

El Nino   V,Strg    3   87.8%   71.2%   63.9%

El Nino   Strong   3  123.7%  113.7%  114.9%

El Nino    Mod      6   80.7%   89.3%   82.1%

El Nino   Weak    12 101.1%   96.7%  105.3%

Neutral   N/A      22   92.6%  104.5% 101.0%

La Nina   Weak   12  100.6%  99.3%  103.3%

La Nina    Mod     6  108.4%  126.0%  114.3%

La Nina   Strong   3    95.2%   68.7%   86.5%

If you ever make it to  East Moose Sack, Maine and eat at the Red Bud Diner, skip the Moose Fries and stay with pancakes.

It's the breaded moose nuggets you want to avoid.  You'd be surprised at where on a moose those things originated.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

In your honor, I'm going to inflict the board with even more. 

Looking to portray the "Length and Breadth of Maine" (title of an old book with more Maine numerical trivia than most folks could comprehend), I took data for CAR and PWM along with Farmington.  The repeat table shows percent of the 50-51 thru 16-17 average for each ENSO condition.

ENSO   Strength  N     CAR     PWM    Farmington
(Average snowfall   116.55"    70.95"   90.05")

El Nino   V,Strg    3   87.8%   71.2%   63.9%

El Nino   Strong   3  123.7%  113.7%  114.9%

El Nino    Mod      6   80.7%   89.3%   82.1%

El Nino   Weak    12 101.1%   96.7%  105.3%

Neutral   N/A      22   92.6%  104.5% 101.0%

La Nina   Weak   12  100.6%  99.3%  103.3%

La Nina    Mod     6  108.4%  126.0%  114.3%

La Nina   Strong   3    95.2%   68.7%   86.5%

If you ever make it to  East Moose Sack, Maine and eat at the Red Bud Diner, skip the Moose Fries and stay with pancakes.

It's the breaded moose nuggets you want to avoid.  You'd be surprised at where on a moose those things originated.

[klw]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

If you ever make it to  East Moose Sack, Maine and eat at the Red Bud Diner, skip the Moose Fries and stay with pancakes.

It's the breaded moose nuggets you want to avoid.  You'd be surprised at where on a moose those things originated.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

 

If you ever make it to  East Moose Sack, Maine and eat at the Red Bud Diner, skip the Moose Fries and stay with pancakes.

It's the breaded moose nuggets you want to avoid.  You'd be surprised at where on a moose those things originated.

Everyone deserves a little moose knuckle now and then.

[uncle W]

Boston snowfall and average winter temperature for la nina winters or weak negative...oni for DJF tri monthly period...average monthly ao for Dec thru March...2011-12 is the worst one on the list...1995-96 is the best...70-71 was the coldest...17 winters had above normal temperatures...13 winters had less than 40"...11 had over 50"...6 were in the 40's...on average it looks like Boston gets its share of snow but temperatures can be somewhat above normal...a negative ao can help during stronger events but not as much for weaker events...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T.....snowfall...

1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........33.5.......36.9"

1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........32.6.......15.5"

1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........33.0.......24.4"

1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........32.5.......46.6"

2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........32.8.......51.2"

1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........33.7.......32.0"

1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........34.1.......36.4"

1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........27.6.......57.3"

2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........30.3.......81.0"

1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........30.9.....107.6"

1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........29.8.......60.9"

1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........32.2.......26.6"

1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084........34.7.......29.7"

1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342........28.6.......44.8"

2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406........30.3.......45.9"

2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008........33.3.......39.9"

1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164........33.0.......47.5"

2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224........31.3.......65.9"

2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750........37.2.........9.3"

1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930........31.6.......25.1"

1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070........28.6.......50.4"

1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400........32.1.......43.0"

1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624........34.6.......27.6"

1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201........34.8.......51.9"

2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439........29.8.......58.9"

1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255........28.5.......30.9"

1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293........32.0.......60.1"

1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872........30.5.......18.1"

2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838........33.7.......63.4"

2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108........35.6.......47.6"

[phoenixny]

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

Boston snowfall and average winter temperature for la nina winters or weak negative...oni for DJF tri monthly period...average monthly ao for Dec thru March...2011-12 is the worst one on the list...1995-96 is the best...70-71 was the coldest...17 winters had above normal temperatures...13 winters had less than 40"...11 had over 50"...6 were in the 40's...on average it looks like Boston gets its share of snow but temperatures can be somewhat above normal...a negative ao can help during stronger events but not as much for weaker events...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T.....snowfall...

1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........33.5.......36.9"

1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........32.6.......15.5"

1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........33.0.......24.4"

1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........32.5.......46.6"

2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........32.8.......51.2"

1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........33.7.......32.0"

1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........34.1.......36.4"

1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........27.6.......57.3"

2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........30.3.......81.0"

1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........30.9.....107.6"

1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........29.8.......60.9"

1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........32.2.......26.6"

1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084........34.7.......29.7"

1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342........28.6.......44.8"

2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406........30.3.......45.9"

2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008........33.3.......39.9"

1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164........33.0.......47.5"

2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224........31.3.......65.9"

2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750........37.2.........9.3"

1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930........31.6.......25.1"

1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070........28.6.......50.4"

1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400........32.1.......43.0"

1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624........34.6.......27.6"

1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201........34.8.......51.9"

2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439........29.8.......58.9"

1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255........28.5.......30.9"

1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293........32.0.......60.1"

1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872........30.5.......18.1"

2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838........33.7.......63.4"

2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108........35.6.......47.6"

Love the Benny Hill picture!

[J Paul Gordon]

Its comforting to see that Kevin is already proclaiming 017-018 a dead ratter. It can only get better from there. Low expectations are easily disappointed (if that's the right term) with better results.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like it's only strengthening still in the subsurface plots....and the models are finally starting to catch up...the dynamic average is now La Nina instead of neutral:

 

 

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah ecmwf sips has Nina too.