40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 I think an 07-08 gradient would be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: That will make some cringe on here................lol, But i won't if it comes to fruition. Me either * Not my sled but you get the idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah it's very true. Hopefully the gradient doesn't go 100 miles north, then we are dumbfounded up here lol. Eh, you'd need more like 200 miles to screw you....you are like 150 miles north of moneypitmike and Hippyvalley. They did just fine in '07-'08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 22 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah it's very true. Hopefully the gradient doesn't go 100 miles north, then we are dumbfounded up here lol. Eh, Its not like a BM track that you would be smoking cirrus, Those SWFE spread the wealth if your on the right side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh, you'd need more like 200 miles to screw you....you are like 150 miles north of moneypitmike and Hippyvalley. They did just fine in '07-'08. That's true, I'm really bad with distances, ha. It was more the point of how sharp the gradient was from epic snows to average snows to below average. I think New England's geography though greatly helps in not being screwed in SWFE like south coast and lower. Even if the gradient was further north, maybe it's 3-5" then sleet instead of 6-10". It's still wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That's true, I'm really bad with distances, ha. It was more the point of how sharp the gradient was from epic snows to average snows to below average. I think New England's geography though greatly helps in not being screwed in SWFE like south coast and lower. Even if the gradient was further north, maybe it's 3-5" then sleet instead of 6-10". It's still wintry. This is absolutely true. The geography is a huge reason why SWFE are even a wintry system to begin with in New England. You don't really see them produce much in the Midwest. They don't have the natural CAD mechanism and local enhanced baroclinic zone to their south which produces such tight gradients and increased ageostrophic flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is absolutely true. The geography is a huge reason why SWFE are even a wintry system to begin with in New England. You don't really see them produce much in the Midwest. They don't have the natural CAD mechanism and local enhanced baroclinic zone to their south which produces such tight gradients and increased ageostrophic flow. Yeah at DVN your only hope was a well timed high pressure, but it never developed in situ like it can in New England. Even then, you would rarely see the rain/snow line wash out as it came north since there was no mechanism to keep it in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah at DVN your only hope was a well timed high pressure, but it never developed in situ like it can in New England. Even then, you would rarely see the rain/snow line wash out as it came north since there was no mechanism to keep it in place. Lord giveth; lord taketh away, too ... Come mid late April, that large scale physical circumstance ain't bringing people snow - it's bring only "mist"ery. ...guess ya can't have it both ways. I have actually seen two or even three synoptic translations succeed over the top of "stranded" cold mud season sludge that can tuck in east of the Berk's and west of the Ocean... Province Town can be 70 F while it's 48 at Worcester to Nashua for f sake! Maybe not that weird but jesus.. The average 2,000 els west, and the marine boundary layer east, is really like a cosmic scaled bowl of cat puke in spring. If I had my druthers, I'd load up the life and wife and head outta here like a lucky prom night from April 3 until May 10. I guess folks would never trade their winter event's cheating colder for benefiting off those topographical effects if it ever meant warm April and Mays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 1 hour ago, mreaves said: Me either * Not my sled but you get the idea! Reminds me of breaking trail when I worked in the Allagash-St. John country. Ride until you paunch the sled (but IMMEDIATELY release the throttle so you don't end nose-up-tail-down like this guy), wrestle the machine around - fun in chest-deep snow - then head back down and do a U-turn, wash-rinse-repeat. It was amazing how much sweat could be produced on a subzero day. Eh, Its not like a BM track that you would be smoking cirrus, Those SWFE spread the wealth if your on the right side of the gradient. IIRC, folks well north of the St. Lawrence shared in that winter's bounty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, tamarack said: Reminds me of breaking trail when I worked in the Allagash-St. John country. Ride until you paunch the sled (but IMMEDIATELY release the throttle so you don't end nose-up-tail-down like this guy), wrestle the machine around - fun in chest-deep snow - then head back down and do a U-turn, wash-rinse-repeat. It was amazing how much sweat could be produced on a subzero day. Eh, Its not like a BM track that you would be smoking cirrus, Those SWFE spread the wealth if your on the right side of the gradient. IIRC, folks well north of the St. Lawrence shared in that winter's bounty. We have a lot going in our favor for good snows on these types of events, Being close to the cold air source is quite favorable in this setup, Sometimes not so much on coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lord giveth; lord taketh away, too ... Come mid late April, that large scale physical circumstance ain't bringing people snow - it's bring only "mist"ery. ...guess ya can't have it both ways. I have actually seen two or even three synoptic translations succeed over the top of "stranded" cold mud season sludge that can tuck in east of the Berk's and west of the Ocean... Province Town can be 70 F while it's 48 at Worcester to Nashua for f sake! Maybe not that weird but jesus.. The average 2,000 els west, and the marine boundary layer east, is really like a cosmic scaled bowl of cat puke in spring. If I had my druthers, I'd load up the life and wife and head outta here like a lucky prom night from April 3 until May 10. I guess folks would never trade their winter event's cheating colder for benefiting off those topographical effects if it ever meant warm April and Mays Can't disagree with you here...in a perfect world where I'm already retired in my 30s, I'd be hightailing it the eff out of here after April Fools Day and probably heading to either the western mountains for some spring skiing under bluebird skies or a tiki bar in the Caribbean until mid-May...or both, lol. But I definitely think you nailed that 5-6 week period of the worst of it...of course, we see it sometimes extend into the first half of June...I think it was only last year we had those two days in the 40s to start June...and we've certainly had our share of horrendous Memorial Days (this year just the latest example). Getting out that airmass is sometimes like trying to flush a toilet bowl with almost no power in the mechanics...you just get a lightly swirling vortex that has no hope of actually flushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 Many years Memorial Day is a cold washout up here, Even July 4th can be a dicey proposition in many case's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Can't disagree with you here...in a perfect world where I'm already retired in my 30s, I'd be hightailing it the eff out of here after April Fools Day and probably heading to either the western mountains for some spring skiing under bluebird skies or a tiki bar in the Caribbean until mid-May...or both, lol. But I definitely think you nailed that 5-6 week period of the worst of it...of course, we see it sometimes extend into the first half of June...I think it was only last year we had those two days in the 40s to start June...and we've certainly had our share of horrendous Memorial Days (this year just the latest example). Getting out that airmass is sometimes like trying to flush a toilet bowl with almost no power in the mechanics...you just get a lightly swirling vortex that has no hope of actually flushing. I need to convince my in-laws to move their two week time share in St. Thomas to April. I mean it's sometimes nice to jet off in January, but really that's a deep winter month when I don't mind if it is cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 27, 2017 Share Posted September 27, 2017 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Can't disagree with you here...in a perfect world where I'm already retired in my 30s, I'd be hightailing it the eff out of here after April Fools Day and probably heading to either the western mountains for some spring skiing under bluebird skies or a tiki bar in the Caribbean until mid-May...or both, lol. But I definitely think you nailed that 5-6 week period of the worst of it...of course, we see it sometimes extend into the first half of June...I think it was only last year we had those two days in the 40s to start June...and we've certainly had our share of horrendous Memorial Days (this year just the latest example). Getting out that airmass is sometimes like trying to flush a toilet bowl with almost no power in the mechanics...you just get a lightly swirling vortex that has no hope of actually flushing. and i mean it just is.. jesus. Before that period... you actually have a reasonable chance at adding to seasonal snow totals ...if you got a contender, why not grab that exit petty slop inch or two to bring it over the top. any later than that time range and you're really not waiting much longer - kind of morally achieved.. but f if it's april 10 any year. ... the pattern and tele's whirl around that tb like a couple a brown gems and it only april 10 - like... oh man. now i'm in a bad mood. f hate april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/topics-temperatures-and-enso-all-cool.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: '07-'08 was such a strong gradient that you could have a very similar winter except maybe 50 or 100 miles south is partying all winter too. It's almost impossible to nail that kind of a gradient twice...though 1970-1971 was pretty damned close. It was probably a little south of the '07-'08 gradient though. Oh believe me 70 -71 was a lot south of 07 08, relatively speaking in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Liking the pattern setup for the longer range after next week's torch. Winter wavelength and we dumbfound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 25 minutes ago, weathafella said: Liking the pattern setup for the longer range after next week's torch. Winter wavelength and we dumbfound. I think I prefer 70-71 to 07-08 as an analog....but I am starting to envision big EPO assist with even some polar blocking this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I prefer 70-71 to 07-08 as an analog....but I am starting to envision big EPO assist with even some polar blocking this year. The NAO region looks better this year but the predictability isn't great on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: The NAO region looks better this year but the predictability isn't great on that. I'm confident that neither the NAO or AO will be a train wreck, but just how favorable remains to be seen. I feel very good about avoiding the AK vortex of death....so I guess, while I'm not necessarily going for a blockbuster for the majority of the east coast, odds of a ratter are relatively low for our area.....IOW, the height of the ceiling remains to be seen, but the floor is fairly elevated...at least at our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Sign me up for 70-71. Great winter here. Even had a monster blizzard on Christmas eve/Christmas day. If that repeated it would go a long way to rinse that bitter taste of the last several festive torches out of my mouth. 185cms for the month of Dec. We take...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm confident that neither the NAO or AO will be a train wreck, but just how favorable remains to be seen. I feel very good about avoiding the AK vortex of death....so I guess, while I'm not necessarily going for a blockbuster for the majority of the east coast, odds of a ratter are relatively low for our area.....IOW, the height of the ceiling remains to be seen, but the floor is fairly elevated...at least at our latitude. Our floor definitely rises a lot if we avoid the AK death vortex. Our latitude will do enough heavy lifting in most patterns absent the death vortex...only if we got some insane exotic blocking would it become a liability...and even then, not sure that would happen in a La Nina or even weak Nino (see exotic blocking episodes of Feb '69 and huge blocking of December 1995 and March 2001)...I typically only start worrying about exotic blocking when it's a southern stream dominated regime and we don't normally see that until El Nino becomes moderate...and of course, we're not considering El Nino at all this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Won't hear any complaints from me if we end up with either of those two winters, 70-71 or 07-08................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Aren't we facing a strong Nina? If so, wagons have to go way north this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Aren't we facing a strong Nina? If so, wagons have to go way north this year. Meh. Mod at most and also it's east based so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm confident that neither the NAO or AO will be a train wreck, but just how favorable remains to be seen. I feel very good about avoiding the AK vortex of death....so I guess, while I'm not necessarily going for a blockbuster for the majority of the east coast, odds of a ratter are relatively low for our area.....IOW, the height of the ceiling remains to be seen, but the floor is fairly elevated...at least at our latitude. Agree. I feel we're going to fairly easily avoid the black hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 I kinda like 95-96 as an analog to. ENSO, qbo, and solar seem roughly identical. You could even debate that the pdo has some similarities there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Aren't we facing a strong Nina? If so, wagons have to go way north this year. You posted a graphic form Ed Valee showing weak to moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 Some good ones in the weak/mod years for La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 28, 2017 Share Posted September 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: You posted a graphic form Ed Valee showing weak to moderate. Yeah, I didn't get a strong signal from those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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