Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[CoastalWx]

It's not a fairly pronounced signal. 

 

And why in the world does the CPC site have 700mb and 200mb heights for the CFSv2 and not 500mb?? That's not useful at all.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I was looking at the precip anomalies. Almost looks like maybe the forcing in the WPAC slowly migrates east through Feb 2018? It would kind of argue for that depiction I guess.

Yeah it's just I've never seen a La Niña have that profile of torch December and then cold the rest of winter. I guess 99-00 had it for dec and then going cold in January but then Feb furnaced again like classic Niña. Ditto 84-85. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

12 hours ago, WxBlue said:

Yep! I spent the past four years in Asheville getting my meteorology degree and the previous four years in Raleigh. December 2010 and January 2016 were only decent storms I saw in the south and they topped out at 10".

Honestly, at the very worst, this winter will be better than any winter I went through in my entire life. I'm so ready to the awesomeness of seeing snow very often and not having to obsess over having that "perfect" set-up to even see more than 6" (you'll see what I mean by peaking at SE forum during wintertime). It will be interesting lurking this forum (mostly) to learn about the climatology of New England and learning a new set of meteorology set-ups. In my college synoptic course, my professor would talk about New England coastline specifically in his cyclogenesis examples because it's a favorable area for fun cold season events. Funny how I ended up finding my first job there after countless hours spent figuring out Q-vectors over MA/NH/ME coastline, eh?

Thankfully, my landlord agreed to take the responsibility of removing snow! I'll let you know how I feel when this winter is over

Welcome to New England.  If you're a graduate with a degree, you can reach out to @dendrite and if you provide him with the documentation, he can give you a MET tag.

[Damage In Tolland]

More bad news 

[uncle W]

1970-71 was a frustrating winter down here in NYC...the second half of December was cold but precipitation events were mixed or suppressed...January was very cold with a white New Years day...7" was the max...a few days later heavy rain melted all the snow...February started very cold but moderated enough that most storms were rain at the coast and wet snow well inland...Port Jervis NY had around 10" in one storm...March started out with another major storm that was mostly rain here but snow well inland...I hated that winter...

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's so weird the CFS is going for basically El Niño climo...furnace December (even more than it showed a week ago) and then cold the other months. 

Obviously you have to take the CFS with a grain of salt...it's the CFS after all. But I just found it weird since it's also the model with the most aggressive La Niña getting it to almost strong levels. 

The cfs changes daily though, right? I just looked at a cfs composite and it showed a wet winter in the great lakes,which is niña not nino climo. Dec was the mildest month but not furnace.

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The cfs changes daily though, right? I just looked at a cfs composite and it showed a wet winter in the great lakes,which is niña not nino climo. Dec was the mildest month but not furnace.

Yeah it does change all the time but it's def been persistent in the mild December idea. It's been getting warmer as we get closer...but obviously we are still well far away from December. CFS generally has no skill until the month before so I wouldn't put much stock in it. 

I was merely commenting on how strange the winter progression looked despite it showing a borderline strong La Niña. 

[ORH_wxman]

57 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1970-71 was a frustrating winter down here in NYC...the second half of December was cold but precipitation events were mixed or suppressed...January was very cold with a white New Years day...7" was the max...a few days later heavy rain melted all the snow...February started very cold but moderated enough that most storms were rain at the coast and wet snow well inland...Port Jervis NY had around 10" in one storm...March started out with another major storm that was mostly rain here but snow well inland...I hated that winter...

'70-'71 had a very similar snowfall distribution as 2007-2008. It was a colder winter but NYC had around 10-15" both winters while Boston was in the 50-60" range and northern New England saw near record snowfall both winters. Both winters also had epic Decembers in New England. 

December 1970 and December 2007 remain #1 and #2 respectively for snowiest decembers on record for BOS. 27.9" and 27.7". 

[CoastalWx]

The local guy the next town over in Hingham had 31.1" Dec 1970. Dec 2008 is tops with 31.5". That's unheard of on the coast.

[uncle W]

Newton NJ got 45" in 70-71 while NYC got 15"...Newton NJ is an hour ride north and west of Staten Island...so close yet so far...

[ORH_wxman]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The local guy the next town over in Hingham had 31.1" Dec 1970. Dec 2008 is tops with 31.5". That's unheard of on the coast.

Yeah I didn't mention 2008 but that was #4 snowiest at BOS. The key for the coast is def getting those SW flow events with stout Quebec high. It helps really diminish the marine influence which can be such a killer in December.  

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it does change all the time but it's def been persistent in the mild December idea. It's been getting warmer as we get closer...but obviously we are still well far away from December. CFS generally has no skill until the month before so I wouldn't put much stock in it. 

I was merely commenting on how strange the winter progression looked despite it showing a borderline strong La Niña. 

Ah gotcha. I'm a climo guy not a forecast guy lol. My reading models at face value is my basic knowledge. I'm terrible at patterns, signals, etc. I rely on the experts to decode it for me 

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ah gotcha. I'm a climo guy not a forecast guy lol. My reading models at face value is my basic knowledge. I'm terrible at patterns, signals, etc. I rely on the experts to decode it for me 

If you want to see the CFS2' s track record for winter predictions, or any season for that matter,  here's a link from it's main site buried near the bottom of the page.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/

[WxBlue]

11 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Welcome to New England.  If you're a graduate with a degree, you can reach out to @dendrite and if you provide him with the documentation, he can give you a MET tag.

I am. Thanks for the heads up and I'll reach out to him!

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

If you want to see the CFS2' s track record for winter predictions, or any season for that matter,  here's a link from it's main site buried near the bottom of the page.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/

Mayne I'm missing it with my 100+ fever, but is there really no z500 maps there?

[weathafella]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sounds like a La Niña SWflow event. Lol. At least one that we were on the wrong side of the gradient. 

Though IIRC your first winter here was '69-70? That was a weak Nino but it did have a lot of taint storms that kind of acted like a La Niña. Still a good winter though. The next winter in '70-71 though was def better. It had that epic December too which is always nice. 

No I'm talking of when I returned in the winter if 1991-92.  It was a mid December (as I recall) 1991 event.

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mayne I'm missing it with my 100+ fever, but is there really no z500 maps there?

No.

[CoastalWx]

I have trouble understanding how no H5 maps are available. 

[Ginx snewx]

70/71 yum. 

[mitchnick]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

Mayne I'm missing it with my 100+ fever, but is there really no z500 maps there?

Just take the 200mb and 700mb maps, average them, and round up to the nearest 100.

[ORH_wxman]

13 hours ago, weathafella said:

No I'm talking of when I returned in the winter if 1991-92.  It was a mid December (as I recall) 1991 event.

You might be thinking of the Dec 3, 1991 event...started off as a front ender but quickly turned to rain near the coast, but the interior got about 4-5" of snow followed by nasty icing. We actually had quite a bit of freezing rain in ORH in that one. Never went above freezing...I remember well since the forecast was for us to hit 40s but it never happened.

They prob got 6-8 up in Maine.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You might be thinking of the Dec 3, 1991 event...started off as a front ender but quickly turned to rain near the coast, but the interior got about 4-5" of snow followed by nasty icing. We actually had quite a bit of freezing rain in ORH in that one. Never went above freezing...I remember well since the forecast was for us to hit 40s but it never happened.

They prob got 6-8 up in Maine.

No not that one.  Even Boston iced in with the cad for that one.  It was about  week or 2 later-meh and warm in any of the 3 SNE states.

[ORH_wxman]

54 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No not that one.  Even Boston iced in with the cad for that one.  It was about  week or 2 later-meh and warm in any of the 3 SNE states.

Hmm...I'm stumped on that one...there was a hideous cutter mid-month but it was so warm that it didn't bring any front end snow to Maine....maybe like CAR or something. There was an excellent storm there around the 17-18th...but we also got snow in SNE from that one...it was a really robust clipper system. We were a little too far south for the best of it, but still got 2-4".

[Weatherexpert]

On 9/12/2017 at 1:32 PM, Powderboy413 said:

I've been hearing a lot about how people are only using analogs that are 2nd year Niñas only. My question is, if you have a weak oni influence on the atmosphere is it necessary to only use 2nd year Nina analogs. 

I understand how a strong Nino could lag atmospheric conditions into the next year but if it's a weak one, does it really matter for the following year?

You can use any ninas. Just be smart when you use them and think critically about how it applies here.  If it is a weak one it depends on just how weak the Nino is whether it goes into the following year. Like I said just think critically about these. My own barometer indicates a heavy snowfall this winter. The hurricanes show how things are changing around here. Things are going to get crazy. But I guess that is good for people who want to snowboard such as you. Personally I don't mind relaxing by the fire and reading a good magazine.

[tamarack]

On ‎9‎/‎17‎/‎2017 at 11:39 AM, uncle W said:

Newton NJ got 45" in 70-71 while NYC got 15"...Newton NJ is an hour ride north and west of Staten Island...so close yet so far...

Oak Ridge Reservoir (NW Morris Cty) is even closer, though elev 864', and they recorded 49" that season, though 9" came in the April storm that slushed NYC with 0.4".  My NNJ home probably had 40-45", with 6-7" at the house for that April event.  My days there of keeping records, 60-61 thru 71-72, were big years for the region, with both 60-61 and 66-67 sneaking past 100", and the average for the period mid-50s.  (And by the time we moved to Maine on 1/23/73, we'd had all of 2" that "winter", and I don't think the total reached 10" for the full season.)

It did not look bad for my area coast and foothills here, But the far NW is light but that area is sparse on data anyways, But i know whats there when i'm riding the border........lol

Understatement!  The only long-term sites north of Moosehead Lake and west of Route 11 are Clayton Lake and Fort Kent.  Clayton winked out in 2011 and their snow records were somewhat spotty anyway, while FK consistently under-reports, due to one-a-day measuring.  (And so often the recorded snow gain was exactly the same as snowpack change - including no-gain days when I recorded some less than a mile away at similar elev - that I question their methodology even further.)  For my 5 years in town, thus the proximity and elevation likeness, I recorded 24.4" more snowfall per winter, 126.6" vs 102.2".  CAR averaged 117.6" for those years.  When I moved to the back settlement at 970', the gap jumped to 47.4" (144.2" vs 96.8", CAR 116.7"), probably due to the gain in altitude, but also more indicative of NW Maine snowfall, where all but the river valleys are 1,000'+, often over 1,500'.

[uncle W]

7 hours ago, tamarack said:

Oak Ridge Reservoir (NW Morris Cty) is even closer, though elev 864', and they recorded 49" that season, though 9" came in the April storm that slushed NYC with 0.4".  My NNJ home probably had 40-45", with 6-7" at the house for that April event.  My days there of keeping records, 60-61 thru 71-72, were big years for the region, with both 60-61 and 66-67 sneaking past 100", and the average for the period mid-50s.  (And by the time we moved to Maine on 1/23/73, we'd had all of 2" that "winter", and I don't think the total reached 10" for the full season.)

It did not look bad for my area coast and foothills here, But the far NW is light but that area is sparse on data anyways, But i know whats there when i'm riding the border........lol

Understatement!  The only long-term sites north of Moosehead Lake and west of Route 11 are Clayton Lake and Fort Kent.  Clayton winked out in 2011 and their snow records were somewhat spotty anyway, while FK consistently under-reports, due to one-a-day measuring.  (And so often the recorded snow gain was exactly the same as snowpack change - including no-gain days when I recorded some less than a mile away at similar elev - that I question their methodology even further.)  For my 5 years in town, thus the proximity and elevation likeness, I recorded 24.4" more snowfall per winter, 126.6" vs 102.2".  CAR averaged 117.6" for those years.  When I moved to the back settlement at 970', the gap jumped to 47.4" (144.2" vs 96.8", CAR 116.7"), probably due to the gain in altitude, but also more indicative of NW Maine snowfall, where all but the river valleys are 1,000'+, often over 1,500'.

Newton NJ got nearly 19" in 72-73 with an 11" storm at the end of January...Port Jervis got 25" that winter...

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html

[weathafella]

Newton,NJ is the home town of none other than Walter Drag.

[Snowstorms]

On 9/17/2017 at 10:27 AM, ORH_wxman said:

'70-'71 had a very similar snowfall distribution as 2007-2008. It was a colder winter but NYC had around 10-15" both winters while Boston was in the 50-60" range and northern New England saw near record snowfall both winters. Both winters also had epic Decembers in New England. 

December 1970 and December 2007 remain #1 and #2 respectively for snowiest decembers on record for BOS. 27.9" and 27.7". 

Surprising to see Boston doing extremely well in December 1970, 07, and 08 despite areas further south getting near average or slightly below. 

Further north in my area we received 28.0" in Dec 1970, 24.6" in Dec 2007, and 33.0" in Dec 08. So a repeat of any of those Decembers would be more than awesome after having a coupe of crappy Decembers since 08. 

 

[mahk_webstah]

On 9/16/2017 at 0:20 PM, WxBlue said:

Still remarkable how I'm jumping from 5-10" average in the south to 60-70" just by moving this past summer. No more going "all in" on that one promising Miller A per winter and having my heart ripped out when it doesn't produce.  

Long term weenie here...more clueless than most.  I am living in the Mills in Dover for the next few months.  Now we have 2 meteorologists here in Dover (you and Jbenedet) and 1 weenie.  I'm sure you won't mind answering all my IMBY questions, since its your backyard too.  Welcome!  I hope you are enjoying our really nice town.  I've had one winter in Dover, and it is a really good spot for snow, given how close to the coast.

[ORH_wxman]

Still no slowdown in subsurface developments....La Nina: