Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[yoda]

Don't know if you guys saw this from earlier today

 

[WxBlue]

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's my SNE map....it's not perfect and I have the east sope of the Berkshires displaced a little too far west...but overall pretty good. I actually did include extreme S NH and S VT...I didn't think I had originally:

 

 

Still remarkable how I'm jumping from 5-10" average in the south to 60-70" just by moving this past summer. No more going "all in" on that one promising Miller A per winter and having my heart ripped out when it doesn't produce.  

[powderfreak]

19 hours ago, Isotherm said:

That map is abysmal for PA/NJ. Definitely underestimated for a large percentage of real estate. I would like to see someone create a New England average map; I created one for NJ several years ago due to the fact that seemingly no accurate ones existed.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/nj-snowfall

(compilation of maps since 2000 for winter snowfall on website) 

 

Unless I'm missing something the NOAA map and yours really aren't *that* different...it is like 2 counties too far north with the 25" line and it's not going to capture the 1/4th of a county above 50" it seems.  It just has the 25" line where your 30" is, which I guess in NJ is probably decent error though.

There are definitely issues with it but I think it's the lack of really showing the micro-climates that looks weird.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, WxBlue said:

Still remarkable how I'm jumping from 5-10" average in the south to 60-70" just by moving this past summer. No more going "all in" on that one promising Miller A per winter and having my heart ripped out when it doesn't produce.  

Welcome...where were you previously? Carolinas? 

Dover NH will be a huge change for you compared to 5-10". Lots of setups that 90% of the east coast won't care about will give snow there. Overrunning setups (southwest flow events are included) , clippers, and late blooming Miller Bs (often clipper redevelopers) are all systems that contribute to the snowfall climo of New England outside of the typical kocin type patterns. Also, you usually won't be melting out your snow right after it falls like happens so often further south. 

Hopefully youlr first winter here is a good one! But even if it isn't, I'm sure it will still feel awesome compared to a southeast winter. 

[OceanStWx]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Welcome...where were you previously? Carolinas? 

Dover NH will be a huge change for you compared to 5-10". Lots of setups that 90% of the east coast won't care about will give snow there. Overrunning setups (southwest flow events are included) , clippers, and late blooming Miller Bs (often clipper redevelopers) are all systems that contribute to the snowfall climo of New England outside of the typical kocin type patterns. Also, you usually won't be melting out your snow right after it falls like happens so often further south. 

Hopefully youlr first winter here is a good one! But even if it isn't, I'm sure it will still feel awesome compared to a southeast winter. 

Nice spot for inverted trofs too. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Nice spot for inverted trofs too. 

Yeah SE NH is def a good spot for those. Even overall in most of New England, we get a lot of ugly 1-3" type events from IVTs. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah SE NH is def a good spot for those. Even overall in most of New England, we get a lot of ugly 1-3" type events from IVTs. 

The shape of that coastline at the NH/ME border really helps to focus the bands of snow there sometimes when you can get the land breezes going.

[ORH_wxman]

59 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The shape of that coastline at the NH/ME border really helps to focus the bands of snow there sometimes when you can get the land breezes going.

Ray absolutely loves inverted troughs. You can see the detailed nuances when he analyzes the mesoscale features leading up to those events. 

[Typhoon Tip]

What I like about NORLUNs is that it could be S+ and butterscotch glowing skies at night, while at 7K feet it's starlight ...if you could see it. 

Maybe not that extreme but it's pretty amazing how it's so lower troposphere dynamically focused.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I'm disappointed I don't remember Feb 5th 2016, did it rain here?

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

April 4th 2016 is sneaky one of my favorite events over the last several years. 

S+ middle of the day in April.... accumulated well too. Think we had 6+ if I remember correctly 

[Baroclinic Zone]

33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I'm disappointed I don't remember Feb 5th 2016, did it rain here?

 

10" or so fell.

[JC-CT]

That average snowfall product out of NWS Burlington just has a granularity about it that leaves the snow enthusiasts 'feeling' a tad shirked - ha.  At that ... won't pick up "local studies".

 

BTV does have the best maps though of any local office. Hands down.

Here's my SNE map....it's not perfect and I have the east sope of the Berkshires displaced a little too far west...but overall pretty good. I actually did include extreme S NH and S VT...I didn't think I had originally:

 

 

I don't want to hear any more sh*t about KIJD this year. It's a hole within itself and I don't live there lol.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

10" or so fell.

Tells you all you need to know about the stretch we've been in overall. I don't remember a 10" event that happened a year and a half ago

[JC-CT]

Tells you all you need to know about the stretch we've been in overall. I don't remember a 10" event that happened a year and a half ago

I remember April being decent last year.

[Hoth]

Man, I can't imagine the feeling of moving from the South to NH for a snow lover. It's probably akin to going straight from customer service to the C suite.

[JC-CT]

Man, I can't imagine the feeling of moving from the South to NH for a snow lover. It's probably akin to going straight from customer service to the C suite.

Until they realize they actually have to clear it.

[WxBlue]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Welcome...where were you previously? Carolinas? 

Dover NH will be a huge change for you compared to 5-10". Lots of setups that 90% of the east coast won't care about will give snow there. Overrunning setups (southwest flow events are included) , clippers, and late blooming Miller Bs (often clipper redevelopers) are all systems that contribute to the snowfall climo of New England outside of the typical kocin type patterns. Also, you usually won't be melting out your snow right after it falls like happens so often further south. 

Hopefully youlr first winter here is a good one! But even if it isn't, I'm sure it will still feel awesome compared to a southeast winter. 

Yep! I spent the past four years in Asheville getting my meteorology degree and the previous four years in Raleigh. December 2010 and January 2016 were only decent storms I saw in the south and they topped out at 10".

Honestly, at the very worst, this winter will be better than any winter I went through in my entire life. I'm so ready to the awesomeness of seeing snow very often and not having to obsess over having that "perfect" set-up to even see more than 6" (you'll see what I mean by peaking at SE forum during wintertime). It will be interesting lurking this forum (mostly) to learn about the climatology of New England and learning a new set of meteorology set-ups. In my college synoptic course, my professor would talk about New England coastline specifically in his cyclogenesis examples because it's a favorable area for fun cold season events. Funny how I ended up finding my first job there after countless hours spent figuring out Q-vectors over MA/NH/ME coastline, eh?

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Man, I can't imagine the feeling of moving from the South to NH for a snow lover. It's probably akin to going straight from customer service to the C suite.
 

Until they realize they actually have to clear it.

Thankfully, my landlord agreed to take the responsibility of removing snow! I'll let you know how I feel when this winter is over

[Isotherm]

8 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Unless I'm missing something the NOAA map and yours really aren't *that* different...it is like 2 counties too far north with the 25" line and it's not going to capture the 1/4th of a county above 50" it seems.  It just has the 25" line where your 30" is, which I guess in NJ is probably decent error though.

There are definitely issues with it but I think it's the lack of really showing the micro-climates that looks weird.

 

To me, it's a significant error given the fact that a winter of 15-25" is quite a bit different than 30-35". Once you get up around 50", 60", 70" etc., disparities of 5-10" are relatively less material. They have the 10-25" range all the way up into the northern 1/3 of NJ, when in reality, a much more accurate range for that region would be 25-40". They even have a pocket of < 10" near the Philly area; that's a large underestimation for sure. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

To me, it's a significant error given the fact that a winter of 20-25" is quite a bit different than 30-35". Once you get up around 50", 60", 70" etc., disparities of 5-10" are relatively less material. They have the 10-25" range all the way up into the northern 1/3 of NJ, when in reality, a much more accurate range for that region would be 25-40". They even have a pocket of < 10" near the Philly area; that's a large underestimation for sure. 

Yeah I'll definitely defer to your local knowledge, I was just commenting after a short glance.  

[CoastalWx]

Man Dover NH? What a good weenie spot. Congrats on good CAD too. SE NH is sort of an underrated area I feel. 

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man Dover NH? What a good weenie spot. Congrats on good CAD too. SE NH is sort of an underrated area I feel. 

SE NH frequently does better than some of the spots to their west in the Merrimack Valley...sometimes the valley spots back to the west downslope off the terrain in the lakes region a bit like the Belknap mountains, etc. That's what bites CON sometimes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ray absolutely loves inverted troughs. You can see the detailed nuances when he analyzes the mesoscale features leading up to those events. 

Yea...you've got me pegged-

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, WxBlue said:

Still remarkable how I'm jumping from 5-10" average in the south to 60-70" just by moving this past summer. No more going "all in" on that one promising Miller A per winter and having my heart ripped out when it doesn't produce.  

Welcome, buddy.

You and I will be rooting for pretty similar trends, more often than not.

[WxBlue]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man Dover NH? What a good weenie spot. Congrats on good CAD too. SE NH is sort of an underrated area I feel. 

 

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

SE NH frequently does better than some of the spots to their west in the Merrimack Valley...sometimes the valley spots back to the west downslope off the terrain in the lakes region a bit like the Belknap mountains, etc. That's what bites CON sometimes.

Comments like these are making this snow weenie feel awesome about the location  I've noticed CAD effect can be strong around here with several sub-60s days back in July and August. Very NC Piedmont-like during cooler months that can give them epic snow totals once or twice a decade.

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Welcome, buddy.

You and I will be rooting for pretty similar trends, more often than not.

Thanks for the welcome! Weird for me to associate Wilmington as a snowy location comparing to good ol' ILM back in North Carolina. 

[weathafella]

I had a gf in Maine (Portland area) my first winter up here.  I remember leaving Winchester,MA in light rain and upper 40s.   The Hampton tolls on up were full on heavy snow.   Ended up with nearly a foot.

[ORH_wxman]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

I had a gf in Maine (Portland area) my first winter up here.  I remember leaving Winchester,MA in light rain and upper 40s.   The Hampton tolls on up were full on heavy snow.   Ended up with nearly a foot.

Sounds like a La Niña SWflow event. Lol. At least one that we were on the wrong side of the gradient. 

Though IIRC your first winter here was '69-70? That was a weak Nino but it did have a lot of taint storms that kind of acted like a La Niña. Still a good winter though. The next winter in '70-71 though was def better. It had that epic December too which is always nice. 

[CoastalWx]

8 hours ago, WxBlue said:

 

Comments like these are making this snow weenie feel awesome about the location  I've noticed CAD effect can be strong around here with several sub-60s days back in July and August. Very NC Piedmont-like during cooler months that can give them epic snow totals once or twice a decade.

Thanks for the welcome! Weird for me to associate Wilmington as a snowy location comparing to good ol' ILM back in North Carolina. 

Just so you know, his four letter ICAO is KGAY.

[ORH_wxman]

It's so weird the CFS is going for basically El Niño climo...furnace December (even more than it showed a week ago) and then cold the other months. 

Obviously you have to take the CFS with a grain of salt...it's the CFS after all. But I just found it weird since it's also the model with the most aggressive La Niña getting it to almost strong levels. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's so weird the CFS is going for basically El Niño climo...furnace December (even more than it showed a week ago) and then cold the other months. 

Obviously you have to take the CFS with a grain of salt...it's the CFS after all. But I just found it weird since it's also the model with the most aggressive La Niña getting it to almost strong levels. 

I was looking at the precip anomalies. Almost looks like maybe the forcing in the WPAC slowly migrates east through Feb 2018? It would kind of argue for that depiction I guess.