Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm glad I 2016 Rick Porcello'd my way into even your top 5 back in 14-15.      Outperformed in every way and will never see it again.

Nah, gotta get 2014-2015 to happen with a decent December now and a bit better March.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nah, gotta get 2014-2015 to happen with a decent December now and a bit better March.

My goal is to see if I can beat Mr. "In and Up" in this Nina. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm glad I 2016 Rick Porcello'd my way into even your top 5 back in 14-15.      Outperformed in every way and will never see it again.

I could not even compete with you that year........lol

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My goal is to see if I can beat Mr. "In and Up" in this Nina. 

Well you beat him in back to back years in '07-'08 and '08-'09 I think...though '07-'08 might have been super close. You def got more in '08-'09 though. You already got him in '13-'14, '14-'15, and even '15-'16 (though obviously not La Ninas)...he's kind of reeling a bit. He finally got more last year which favored the interior better...but he really needs like 3 or 4 in a row to start getting his swagger back. He's been talking about a dud winter...and more recently in winters he talks about no big events going to happen. You can feel that he's lost some pep in his winter step. I think he needs to get a good lead in December and then we'll see the confidence of the Tolland Massif return.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Weak la nina is our second most favored ENSO base-state...but I get much more uneasy about a moderate la ninia.

Hopefully it remains weak.

I think a negative QBO/weak la nina combo should at least a yield a few hours of negative NAO

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well you beat him in back to back years in '07-'08 and '08-'09 I think...though '07-'08 might have been super close. You def got more in '08-'09 though. You already got him in '13-'14, '14-'15, and even '15-'16 (though obviously not La Ninas)...he's kind of reeling a bit. He finally got more last year which favored the interior better...but he really needs like 3 or 4 in a row to start getting his swagger back. He's been talking about a dud winter...and more recently in winters he talks about no big events going to happen. You can feel that he's lost some pep in his winter step. I think he needs to get a good lead in December and then we'll see the confidence of the Tolland Massif return.

Oh I nailed him and 08-09. No in and up that season for sure.   

He needs a good 12/92. He's been always hammering getting a huge blue bomb..but hasn't quite got them relative to lower spots. Not like ORH which had them on a few locations compared to the big massif.

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I nailed him and 08-09. No in and up that season for sure.   

He needs a good 12/92. He's been always hammering getting a huge blue bomb..but hasn't quite got them relative to lower spots. Not like ORH which had them on a few locations compared to the big massif.

Yeah he kind of missed out on Feb 24, 2010 (flipped to rain pretty early in that after about 4")....Dec 29, 2016 last winter he got some snow, but a lot of rain too....of course, there's the epic 2010 MLK paste job and meltdown...he also completely whiffed on the paste-job Norluns on MLK 2014 and Feb 22, 2013. He's dying for one of those systems where he gets 10" of paste and you and Ray get mostly shut out....or at least your area...it's a bit harder to shut out Ray on a paste bomb...need a perfect setup like the 2nd storm in December 1996 or a Feb 24, 2010....but often in that type of setup, the mid-levels are also encroaching upon CT too...so it ends up as an ORH event. His area did manage some good snow in Dec 1996, but they flipped to a mix in the 2nd half of that system. Union, CT actually stayed almost all snow...the line was like right there.

[powderfreak]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I nailed him and 08-09. No in and up that season for sure.   

He needs a good 12/92. He's been always hammering getting a huge blue bomb..but hasn't quite got them relative to lower spots. Not like ORH which had them on a few locations compared to the big massif.

October 2011 seemed like it fit his bill...massive destruction and 12" of pure paste.  

[das]

16 hours ago, mreaves said:

Charlotte? Powderfreak, JSpin and myself will be mushing sled dogs on the tundra while you and eyewall break out the Speedos and Ray Bans lol

P.S. Welcome to VT though!

Thanks.  It will be weird to go from the most climatologically favored area in the DC area to a mediocre area in New England.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he kind of missed out on Feb 24, 2010 (flipped to rain pretty early in that after about 4")....Dec 29, 2016 last winter he got some snow, but a lot of rain too....of course, there's the epic 2010 MLK paste job and meltdown...he also completely whiffed on the paste-job Norluns on MLK 2014 and Feb 22, 2013. He's dying for one of those systems where he gets 10" of paste and you and Ray get mostly shut out....or at least your area...it's a bit harder to shut out Ray on a paste bomb...need a perfect setup like the 2nd storm in December 1996 or a Feb 24, 2010....but often in that type of setup, the mid-levels are also encroaching upon CT too...so it ends up as an ORH event. His area did manage some good snow in Dec 1996, but they flipped to a mix in the 2nd half of that system. Union, CT actually stayed almost all snow...the line was like right there.

He hates this area and so does Ray. Ray the most of anyone. Relishes when it rains in the BOS area. 

[MarkO]

Are there any new england seasonal snowfall maps? 

[das]

3 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Are there any new england seasonal snowfall maps? 

Here you go (unless you mean yearly):

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Are there any new england seasonal snowfall maps? 

I have a bunch at home on my computer from the 2006-2007 season up until 2010-2011...but I'm at work right now so no access to them. One of these times I will make seasonal maps updated to the present, but that will probably require me to actually have some time...probably not for a few years. I have some partial maps from the post-2011 years, but they still need a lot of work.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, das said:

Here you go (unless you mean yearly):

 

And even this one is pretty inaccurate in SNE. It has ORH and I-495 barely on the 50" contour when that region is 60"+ (and 75"+ occupies much of the high terrain in N ORH county in reality)...and I would argue that none of the Cape belongs in the 10-25" contour...the only areas in SNE that average under 25 inches are probably right on the coast in GON...perhaps ACK, but even ACK probably averages high 20s. The lack of pristine data though on the Cape probably corrupts their map.

[das]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

And even this one is pretty inaccurate in SNE. It has ORH and I-495 barely on the 50" contour when that region is 60"+ (and 75"+ occupies much of the high terrain in N ORH county in reality)...and I would argue that none of the Cape belongs in the 10-25" contour...the only areas in SNE that average under 25 inches are probably right on the coast in GON...perhaps ACK, but even ACK probably averages high 20s. The lack of pristine data though on the Cape probably corrupts their map.

Then I hope you find the time to dust off those maps on your home computer!  I'd love to see what's what as I migrate up that way.

Maryland, in that map, is off a bit as well.  My 30 year average in Central Maryland (northern Montgomery County) is 29.1".  We get basically double what downtown DC does.  The map does not have the resolution to capture orographically enhanced miocroclimates.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, das said:

Then I hope you find the time to dust off those maps on your home computer!  I'd love to see what's what as I migrate up that way.

Maryland, in that map, is off a bit as well.  My 30 year average in Central Maryland (northern Montgomery County) is 29.1".  We get basically double what downtown DC does.  The map does not have the resolution to capture orographically enhanced miocroclimates.

Yeah and I think it uses coop data mostly at face value as long as a ton of data isn't missing...even if the coops are not very pristine. A lot of them underreport snowfall...esp if it is a "once per day" measuring coop.

 

I'll post the maps I have if I remember tonight. I also have an SNE average snowfall map at home too...though it doesn't include any of VT/NH/ME like my individual  seasonal maps do.

 

I actually just found the 2007-2008 map stored in my attachments just now quickly looking, so I'll post that one here...I have several others at home. You can see the absolutely insane latitude gradient to the snowfall in 2007-2008. One of the most extreme we've ever seen on record. Only rivaled by 1970-1971. The winter soured pretty quickly once you got halfway down into CT/RI.

 

[das]

19 hours ago, weathafella said:

The problem is when you're on the phone you don't realize who's a red tagger.  Sorry das.

Hey, I thought I'd respond to this out in the open.  I've never been an OpMet (except for one glorious weekend 20+ years ago but that's another story for another day).  My work was in the research side of the shop a while ago now.  So, you won't see me opining a ton on model runs or giving deep insights into synoptic setups.  You and others will have a better bead on that and I'll be leaning on the enthusiasts and Mets in here to get to know the nuance of the NE microclimates (that make tracking and forecasting so fun) for a variety of storm types over the next few years.  

I still have some decent connections in the remote sensing field (my area of research back when I was actively in the field) so, if ever you all have questions about that, If I don't have the answers already, I usually know who does.  There's a little of me in GOES-16, VIIRS, DMSP, etc...  

All this to say, I'll say stupid stuff, just like everyone else.  There should be no deference to my red tag...

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I have a bunch at home on my computer from the 2006-2007 season up until 2010-2011...but I'm at work right now so no access to them. One of these times I will make seasonal maps updated to the present, but that will probably require me to actually have some time...probably not for a few years. I have some partial maps from the post-2011 years, but they still need a lot of work.

Do you have CNE/NNE plotted on the annual average maps?  That'd be sweet if so.

Any official NOAA map is going to use Coop data which leaves a lot to be desired.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, das said:

Here you go (unless you mean yearly):

Just be prepared in the Champlain Valley that if you compare your winter to Maryland, you'll enjoy it.  If you compare it to the rest of VT, and even a good chunk of interior New England, it will be a bit more frustrating ;).

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Do you have CNE/NNE plotted on the annual average maps?  That'd be sweet if so.

Any official NOAA map is going to use Coop data which leaves a lot to be desired.

I don't...only the 3 SNE states. I wish I would have made it all of New England when I did it years ago. Maybe that's another project for me in the next few years...expand it to all of NE. It would require a lot of meticulous work though for NNE with all the terrain. It was tough enough getting interior SNE accurate (and I know there's probably some spots that still need tweaking). But having a good accurate average annual snowfall map would be a nice thing to have around here.

[dryslot]

I think the Pittsburgh area on that map would be better suited for pink then cerise...........lol

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I think the Pittsburgh area on that map would be better suited for pink then cerise...........lol

Yeah there's a bunch of spots in VT too...the whole Spine above 1,500ft probably does 200"+ and even S.VT above 2000ft does at least 150"+.  

The map is made with Coop data so it's low in a bunch of areas.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah there's a bunch of spots in VT too...the whole Spine above 1,500ft probably does 200"+ and even S.VT above 2000ft does at least 150"+.  

The map is made with Coop data so it's low in a bunch of areas.

It did not look bad for my area coast and foothills here, But the far NW is light but that area is sparse on data anyways, But i know whats there when i'm riding the border........lol

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It did not look bad for my area coast and foothills here, But the far NW is light but that area is sparse on data anyways, But i know whats there when i'm riding the border........lol

Might be a bit light down toward Bridgeton and Hiram...that area north of Sebago....they average over 80 inches in those towns. Even the coops average over 80 inches, so I'm surprised it doesn't really have more of the darker blue there.

[CoastalWx]

Nice to have someone on the developmental side here. Welcome Das.

[Typhoon Tip]

That average snowfall product out of NWS Burlington just has a granularity about it that leaves the snow enthusiasts 'feeling' a tad shirked - ha.  At that ... won't pick up "local studies".

 

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That average snowfall product out of NWS Burlington just has a granularity about it that leaves the snow enthusiasts 'feeling' a tad shirked - ha.  At that ... won't pick up "local studies".

 

It's gotta be tough with the ranges too, trying to capture places that average say 40" with others that do 200-250"+ like mountains and NW upslope zone above 1,500ft is likely tough on a map to get that detailed.

A range of even 25" covers a pretty widespread area...but someone averaging 50" is going into the same group as some averaging 74" which is almost 50% more snowfall.  

Its much easier to see the local effects in NNE because of the larger scale of those differences...but down in SNE it needs to be more like 10-inch ranges to really see the local variations.

[Isotherm]

That map is abysmal for PA/NJ. Definitely underestimated for a large percentage of real estate. I would like to see someone create a New England average map; I created one for NJ several years ago due to the fact that seemingly no accurate ones existed.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/nj-snowfall

(compilation of maps since 2000 for winter snowfall on website) 

 

[dryslot]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might be a bit light down toward Bridgeton and Hiram...that area north of Sebago....they average over 80 inches in those towns. Even the coops average over 80 inches, so I'm surprised it doesn't really have more of the darker blue there.

Yeah just saw that, Looks like it misses some of the higher elevations, And micro climates

[ORH_wxman]

Here's my SNE map....it's not perfect and I have the east sope of the Berkshires displaced a little too far west...but overall pretty good. I actually did include extreme S NH and S VT...I didn't think I had originally: