ORH_wxman Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Oh stop Meh, it's just his way of convincing himself the winter will suck before he gets emotionally invested...so then he can either 1) Claim he nailed the winter forecast OR 2) Be "pleasantly surprised" if we get a cold/snowy winter. It's a win-win. We've seen this play out in here multiple autumns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 I'd be much more worried if everything showed a blockbuster winter...we know how accurate model forecasts are three months out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 I am not worried about this winter at all. Regardless of what the models indicate right now and for the next few months I feel confident this winter will feature colder temps with more snowfall compared to the last 2 years, at least in my hood. knowing in the back of my mind that this could be the year that the -nao comes back with vengeance and completely takes over the winter I won't go that far yet though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They always used to say that and talk about the blizzard of '78 and the 1960s. Then the talk finally subsided once we got those 1992-1993 and 1993-1994 winters...then came of course 1995-1996 and April '97 (and Dec '96 for us back in the interior). We did get kind of a ratter trio of years in '97-'98, '98-'99, and '99-'00...though each of those winters had their moments...they were better than some of the ratters in the 1980s and early '90s. We had Dec '97, Feb/Mar '99 and that good stretch in January 2000. But it started feeling a little ugly until 2000-2001 revived it again....and then the extremely underrated 2002-2003 winter up here. It kind of gets a lot of glory in the Mid-Atlantic for good reason, but it is very sneaky for a place like BOS and ORH...for Logan it was the 6th coldest winter on record and with 71.3" of snow to go with it. ORH had 117.3" of snow...good for #4 all time. Then you get '04-'05 of course a couple years later...not to mention the more recent blockbusters. We've had some pretty amazing stretches of winter since 1992. 54 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Late 90s were pretty meh though for this area. I guesss you can grab any 3yr stretch positive or negative though. Regardless, The past 17years of storms far outweigh the previous 17 that ive been living in states. I just hope this era isnt a peak cycle but I am prepared, mentally, if it is. 80s were so brutal in NJ I thought a foot was historic. But at least as a kid a foot looked like two feet now, so its all relative I guess. There were definitely some clunkers, but the 90s and 00s just did not have the tone that the 80s did. There were some good storms in the 80s though. The Cape had a couple of 2 footers and we had a few dynamic storms like Jan 87 and Mar 84. But overall, the winters in SNE just weren't that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There were definitely some clunkers, but the 90s and 00s just did not have the tone that the 80s did. There were some good storms in the 80s though. The Cape had a couple of 2 footers and we had a few dynamic storms like Jan 87 and Mar 84. But overall, the winters in SNE just weren't that good. The 1980s/early 1990s had a lot of "flattened" positive PNA type flow due to a big +NAO tendency that decade. So we got a lot of compression in the geopotential heights which probably helped make it crappy for big storms a lot of the time. The EPO did tend to go negative at times which brought some good cold shots...but the +NAO helped with the cutters. Probably some bad luck in there as well...the result was a lot of our favorite "cutter-frigid-cutter" type patterns...and also cold and dry patterns at times with the compressed +NAO flow. Pretty brutal overall. Kind of amazing comparing the two periods...this is 1993-2017 minus the 1980-1992 period...look how the arctic heights have been higher recently while we have lower heights in the polar jet region of the middle latitudes...despite 2 decades of backround warming in the means on those composites. Definitely a better pattern for storm activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 And even if you only compare the 2010s to the 1980s/early1990s...the pattern still shows up...even more amplified: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Nobody should ever be confident in a good winter on September 14th...or really even November 14th in most cases. The only time I'd ever be confident of a good winter in New England would be a weak El Nino and even then, I'd still be a little hesitant based on sample size. Too bad the weak el nino idea croaked....more room to suck in a la nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Too bad the weak el nino idea croaked....more room to suck in a la nina. Yeah for sure. I feel decent though if it's a weak or moderate Nina. I'd be more nervous if we had a raging strong La Nina incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Wasn't the snowmagedon winter that crushed the Mid-Atlantic...I think 2009-2010....a strong la nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Wasn't the snowmagedon winter that crushed the Mid-Atlantic...I think 2009-2010....a strong la nina? It was a moderate El Nino. The next winter 2010-2011 was a borderline strong La Nina, but we had an amazing year anyway with a lot of blocking that seemed to never cease after the 2009-2010 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: Wasn't there a bigger storm in mid-December? I seem to remember a 16-inch event in BTV that December 2007. That winter was when S.Quebec and Ontario saw their snowiest winter ever I think. Montreal was absolutely buried, just far enough north. That winter the mix line would get up near the International border and stall out. Biggest storms that winter: 12.5" Jan. 1-2 10.7" Dec. 3-4 9.5" Dec. 16-17 9.0" Feb. 26-27 8.0" Jan. 14, Feb. 13 Nice storms all, with another 9 between 4.0 and 7.5, but living where I do, 12.5" isn't a blockbuster unless it comes with 60 mph wind. Augusta had 15" in the January 14 storm, 10" of fluff having fallen in 4.5 hr as I left there for the Farmington hospital, could hardly see the road as the plowpiles along it had been fully rounded by the new snow, used the phone wire as visual aid. My wife's car had been rear-ended, and the meds wanted to make sure none of the 3-month-old sternum staples from her bypass op had popped. (They had not, fortunately.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 On 9/13/2017 at 3:27 PM, weathafella said: So this thread has gone from stovepipe league to pitchers and catchers reporting. Poking my head in here to take a peek and have to agree. The level of discourse is on par with the Mid-Atlantic forum when winter is actually gearing up down here. Like in Mid December... Got my place in Vermont now (in Charlotte, the snow hole of Vermont) so I'll be split-streaming regional forums this winter. The gloomy early indicators for this winter both here in MD and up there sure feel different. A below average winter in Vermont will still seem like a bonanza for me except for when we get our occasional 60-80" years down here. Looking forward to tracking with you all. das Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 18 minutes ago, tamarack said: Biggest storms that winter: 12.5" Jan. 1-2 10.7" Dec. 3-4 9.5" Dec. 16-17 9.0" Feb. 26-27 8.0" Jan. 14, Feb. 13 Nice storms all, with another 9 between 4.0 and 7.5, but living where I do, 12.5" isn't a blockbuster unless it comes with 60 mph wind. Augusta had 15" in the January 14 storm, 10" of fluff having fallen in 4.5 hr as I left there for the Farmington hospital, could hardly see the road as the plowpiles along it had been fully rounded by the new snow, used the phone wire as visual aid. My wife's car had been rear-ended, and the meds wanted to make sure none of the 3-month-old sternum staples from her bypass op had popped. (They had not, fortunately.) Ahh yeah I'm thinking of the Dec 16-17 one I think. IIRC in Burlington we had around a foot of snow along with some mix, before it went back to snow with deform/NW flow/Champlain Valley convergence adding a quick 4" in 2 hours to end it. Not a huge storm but I think it was 13-18" in the BTV CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was a moderate El Nino. The next winter 2010-2011 was a borderline strong La Nina, but we had an amazing year anyway with a lot of blocking that seemed to never cease after the 2009-2010 winter. Yup. That blocking destroyed us as it's great during a mod El Nino but deadly down here most other times. I'm actually looking forward to seeing a Nina with decent snow up there. 41 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Wasn't the snowmagedon winter that crushed the Mid-Atlantic...I think 2009-2010....a strong la nina? Strong El Nino's typically overwhelm the Mid-Atlantic with warmth due to the flexing SE ridge. You typically have to go above 40N to do well in a strong. Like ORH said, it was a moderate. Moderate with strong blocking is our sweet spot for big storms. Here's my quick history site when I am trying to remember ENSO state in past years: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/past_events.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/science/maurice-bluestein-who-modernized-the-wind-chill-index-dies-at-76.html?module=WatchingPortal®ion=c-column-middle-span-region&pgType=Homepage&action=click&mediaId=thumb_square&state=standard&contentPlacement=2&version=internal&contentCollection=www.nytimes.com&contentId=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2017%2F09%2F14%2Fscience%2Fmaurice-bluestein-who-modernized-the-wind-chill-index-dies-at-76.html&eventName=Watching-article-click Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 27 minutes ago, das said: Yup. That blocking destroyed us as it's great during a mod El Nino but deadly down here most other times. I'm actually looking forward to seeing a Nina with decent snow up there. Strong El Nino's typically overwhelm the Mid-Atlantic with warmth due to the flexing SE ridge. You typically have to go above 40N to do well in a strong. Like ORH said, it was a moderate. Moderate with strong blocking is our sweet spot for big storms. Here's my quick history site when I am trying to remember ENSO state in past years: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/past_events.html I respectfully disagree unless you meant strong La Niña vs El Niño. you did well in the super El Niño of 2015-16 and 2009-10 was borderline strong I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: I respectfully disagree unless you meant strong La Niña vs El Niño. I meant El Nino but that is a good catch. I will have to be thoughtful about the terminology I use as I transition locations. I know that a strong El Nino up there is warmer than average with maybe a uptick in precipitation but down here, it means a parade of gully washers at 35°F that jump to 60°F followed by a drop below freezing an hour after precipitation shuts off. By "good", I meant that at least there can be a front end thump before the changeover to heavy rain if you are 40N. Not good by New England standards but good for us down here given the climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 The problem is when you're on the phone you don't realize who's a red tagger. Sorry das. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 hours ago, das said: Poking my head in here to take a peek and have to agree. The level of discourse is on par with the Mid-Atlantic forum when winter is actually gearing up down here. Like in Mid December... Got my place in Vermont now (in Charlotte, the snow hole of Vermont) so I'll be split-streaming regional forums this winter. The gloomy early indicators for this winter both here in MD and up there sure feel different. A below average winter in Vermont will still seem like a bonanza for me except for when we get our occasional 60-80" years down here. Looking forward to tracking with you all. das Charlotte? Powderfreak, JSpin and myself will be mushing sled dogs on the tundra while you and eyewall break out the Speedos and Ray Bans lol P.S. Welcome to VT though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 People who are worried already lol. It's been stated numerous times weak Ninas are still usually decent here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 hours ago, das said: I meant El Nino but that is a good catch. I will have to be thoughtful about the terminology I use as I transition locations. I know that a strong El Nino up there is warmer than average with maybe a uptick in precipitation but down here, it means a parade of gully washers at 35°F that jump to 60°F followed by a drop below freezing an hour after precipitation shuts off. By "good", I meant that at least there can be a front end thump before the changeover to heavy rain if you are 40N. Not good by New England standards but good for us down here given the climatology. Yeah the difference between climo will help mask any cruddy winter for you...at least in your first winter up here. Lol. You can struggle to 55" in VT and that seems like a big year for a Marylander...but don't worry, pretty quickly you'll start scoffing at 55" winters. I remember in the early days of Eastern when we posted more with the mid-Atlantic crowd before subforum and I used to get some sh** for complaining about a 45" winter in 2001-2002...but I quickly reminded everyone that expectations are all relative. The D.C. Crowd would probably get the same reaction from Raleigh, NC posters for complaining about a 10" or 12" winter. At any rate, you don't have to fear La Niña up in our region like further south. Maybe a really strong one, but that's not gonna happen this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the difference between climo will help mask any cruddy winter for you...at least in your first winter up here. Lol. You can struggle to 55" in VT and that seems like a big year for a Marylander...but don't worry, pretty quickly you'll start scoffing at 55" winters. I remember in the early days of Eastern when we posted more with the mid-Atlantic crowd before subforum and I used to get some sh** for complaining about a 45" winter in 2001-2002...but I quickly reminded everyone that expectations are all relative. The D.C. Crowd would probably get the same reaction from Raleigh, NC posters for complaining about a 10" or 12" winter. At any rate, you don't have to fear La Niña up in our region like further south. Maybe a really strong one, but that's not gonna happen this season. It's crazy how England does decently well with niña but once you got passed let's say central ct, they usually suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 12 hours ago, tamarack said: No blockbusters (or even close) up here, but the endless stream of SWFEs built a tall and solid snowpack. Yes, Would buy it again, 138.70" here that winter, Where do i sign.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 10 hours ago, powderfreak said: Wasn't there a bigger storm in mid-December? I seem to remember a 16-inch event in BTV that December 2007. That winter was when S.Quebec and Ontario saw their snowiest winter ever I think. Montreal was absolutely buried, just far enough north. That winter the mix line would get up near the International border and stall out. I believe Quebec City had 230" off an average of 120" in Winter 07-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, nzucker said: I believe Quebec City had 230" off an average of 120" in Winter 07-08. https://ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=B2EA41B2-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 9 hours ago, weathafella said: https://ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=B2EA41B2-1 Funny how they reference the 1970-1971 winter in that summary too....we had been hammering that analog all during the 2007-2008 winter back on eastern. '70-'71 was colder, but the snow was amazingly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 No matter how much better seasonal forecasting has gotten, it's still somewhat of crapshoot relatively speaking, especially before Fall has even begun. So anyone gunho or depressed at this juncture just doesn't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Funny how they reference the 1970-1971 winter in that summary too....we had been hammering that analog all during the 2007-2008 winter back on eastern. '70-'71 was colder, but the snow was amazingly similar. Snowiest season on record at the Franklin NH sites until 07-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 My top five here in the Dirty Lew 1. 1961-62- 164.30" 2. 1970-71- 144.90" 3. 2007-08- 137.80" 4. 1951-52- 128.20" 5. 2016-17- 121.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: My top five here in the Dirty Lew 1. 1961-62- 164.30" 2. 1970-71- 144.90" 3. 2007-08- 137.80" 4. 1951-52- 128.20" 5. 2016-17- 121.20" I'm glad I 2016 Rick Porcello'd my way into even your top 5 back in 14-15. Outperformed in every way and will never see it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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