ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, uncle W said: anyone have snow depth for Boston winters?...if not I have many hours of research coming up... They haven't had much snow depth data for about 15 years now...and not really very reliable in over 20 years. It's too bad...snow depth is really a great metric that kind of got neglected during the ASOS transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They haven't had much snow depth data for about 15 years now...and not really very reliable in over 20 years. It's too bad...snow depth is really a great metric that kind of got neglected during the ASOS transition. I think it's absurd...They did the same thing for NYC from 1996-2006 I think...some depths are suspect especially in 2015...I looked at Boston local climate data and it has it up to the 2003-04 winter in spots...I looked at 1967-68 and there were 47 days with at least one inch on the ground at some point during the day...23 days with 4"...3 days 10" or more...23 consecutive days 1" or more...I thought airports did measure snow depth?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 57 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I like my winters like 02/03 from 11/27 to 3/27 only had 7 days without snow cover and they were all in Dec, it snowed every 3 days or so , Jan 03 was super cold but snowed enough south of the Pike to make it sweet. As well, I think any of us that enjoy winter sporting activities are on the retention train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, uncle W said: I think it's absurd...They did the same thing for NYC from 1996-2006 I think...some depths are suspect especially in 2015...I looked at Boston local climate data and it has it up to the 2003-04 winter in spots...I looked at 1967-68 and there were 47 days with at least one inch on the ground at some point during the day...23 days with 4"...3 days 10" or more...23 consecutive days 1" or more...I thought airports did measure snow depth?... Not all airports still measure snow depth...ones that still have an FAA observer do. BOS lost their FAA contract observer years ago. It's pretty silly, but that was the path after ASOS took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I haven't read his paper in a long while though http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~rhart/papers-hart/2010HartGRL.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 2 hours ago, dryslot said: You pretty much stole my thunder with that phrase, I would definitely consider a banner winter if we even had below normal snow but had it on the ground from Dec-March, Rather then above normal snow, And looking at frequent bouts of brown grass, Last winter was an example of the latter. What a difference 40 miles can make. Once that late Dec dump arrived, I never had less than 16" OG until April 12. The late Feb thaw was disappointing (was hoping to crack the 50" mark for depth, or even 60", once we reached mid 40s in mid Feb), but even losing 20" left me with no less than 22, and it was bulletproof once the March cold arrived. 3rd most SDDs of 19 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Yeah Lavarock bitching his way to over 140". May he suck cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: And '98-'99, '99-'00 (and '05-'06 after December)....to name other La Ninas that had them. We've been in a pretty favorable regime though recently for avoiding deep low pressure there (though the strong Nino of 2015-2016 sort of bucked that trend)....so hopefully that continues. If it does, then we can expect more of a 2008-2009, 2010-2011, 2000-2001 flavor of La Nina...2000-2001 might not be a terrible analog if we maintain the positive PDO well into autumn. Funny there's people saying the PDO is negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 98-99 was sneaky good on the Cape. It was pretty lousy everywhere else, but they managed to get a 2 footer that winter. Not to mention 7-10" before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 3 hours ago, uncle W said: I think it's absurd...They did the same thing for NYC from 1996-2006 I think...some depths are suspect especially in 2015...I looked at Boston local climate data and it has it up to the 2003-04 winter in spots...I looked at 1967-68 and there were 47 days with at least one inch on the ground at some point during the day...23 days with 4"...3 days 10" or more...23 consecutive days 1" or more...I thought airports did measure snow depth?... In my years of perusing climate data, while my focus is very heavy on southern MI, sometimes I branch out when necessary if Im looking for climate data elsewhere. I have noticed that stations in the Boston NWS area are the only ones I can think of that dont report snow depth, at least in a northern location. I never knew why. I get its an ASOS thing, but as I said, almost every other first order climate station I have come across reports snow depth. Never knew why BOS didnt. (I popped over here because they think its too early to talk winter in the Lakes forum :p) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: In my years of perusing climate data, while my focus is very heavy on southern MI, sometimes I branch out when necessary if Im looking for climate data elsewhere. I have noticed that stations in the Boston NWS area are the only ones I can think of that dont report snow depth, at least in a northern location. I never knew why. I get its an ASOS thing, but as I said, almost every other first order climate station I have come across reports snow depth. Never knew why BOS didnt. (I popped over here because they think its too early to talk winter in the Lakes forum :p) ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ORH Yeah thats what I meant stations in the Boston NWS reporting cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Id prefer not to have a northern stream dominated cold season but as long as we can buckle the flow a bit, slow roll it, it should work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: In my years of perusing climate data, while my focus is very heavy on southern MI, sometimes I branch out when necessary if Im looking for climate data elsewhere. I have noticed that stations in the Boston NWS area are the only ones I can think of that dont report snow depth, at least in a northern location. I never knew why. I get its an ASOS thing, but as I said, almost every other first order climate station I have come across reports snow depth. Never knew why BOS didnt. (I popped over here because they think its too early to talk winter in the Lakes forum :p) Same with me snowfreak, I jump over here and like to read what these guys have to say about winter every few days, winter weather is all I really care about and I can get my "fix" by reading that here. I like the passion and details that some of the guys put into their posts over here about winter weather, we don't get much of that in the lakes forum, especially this time a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 Although voodoo like any other seasonal model, CFSV2 looked pretty good for winter here. It didn't strike me very nina-ish, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 When does Ray do his write-up? After October I presume. I feel like he's done decently lately, but maybe that's just because he has said it enough times to make it true lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 2 hours ago, slow poke said: Same with me snowfreak, I jump over here and like to read what these guys have to say about winter every few days, winter weather is all I really care about and I can get my "fix" by reading that here. I like the passion and details that some of the guys put into their posts over here about winter weather, we don't get much of that in the lakes forum, especially this time a year. Exactly. Once winter gets closer they get into it in our forum, but they don't really get into it much beforehand. Which is odd in that the southern Great Lakes region is similar to southern New England weather wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 The SE ridge look on the CFS comes across as Nina-ish to me....though the cold in Jan/Feb/Mar after a milder December def doesn't match La Nina climo. PNA looks positive those months too. Kind of a weird pattern. It's the CFS though, so no real reason to look at it right now. It tends to not have much skill until right before the month it is trying to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 One thing I do like is that it's look like we will at least have a cold source to tap into if we need it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 16 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah Lavarock bitching his way to over 140". May he suck cirrus. Lots of collateral damage if that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 So this thread has gone from stovepipe league to pitchers and catchers reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 8 hours ago, JC-CT said: When does Ray do his write-up? After October I presume. I feel like he's done decently lately, but maybe that's just because he has said it enough times to make it true lol. I feel as though I grade myself pretty objectively....even the 2014-2015 season that I was gung-ho on...I noted that I was right for the wrong reason and that I got lucky to a degree...as the AO/NAO were positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 I release the full report in mid Novie... I was over the top for a couple of years when I started, but I think I've toned it down...the feedback is always welcomed, though because I have been working on not projecting myself like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 I'm running behind on formulating my ideas because I was originally favoring weak el nino or warm-neutral, but going back to the drawingboard and becoming consumed by the tropics has set me back. I don't think it will be horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 Everything continues to point to a horrific winter for snow lovers in the northeast All latest guidance is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything continues to point to a horrific winter for snow lovers in the northeast All latest guidance is ugly 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: A sure sign of fun times to come. Kevin has already written off winter 017-018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 I'll take 07-08 again with a dateline ridge if that's what Big Ben is hinting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 I 43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything continues to point to a horrific winter for snow lovers in the northeast All latest guidance is ugly You've been on the rat train the past several winters now, in the pre season...but then, in season, you wish the snowiest solution. It's a nice jedi mind trick played. Can't lose either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 14, 2017 Share Posted September 14, 2017 I gotta agree with Kevin a bit. I'd take a sub par winter for a white festive Holiday. These raging torches perfectly aligning with Christmas eve/day are getting old fast. Heck I'd even take a sunny below freezing day with some snowpack but running around in Iroc's and tank tops while opening gifts takes some of the magic away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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