ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'm not pessimistic on this upcoming winter. Feel like we'll have our share of chances. As long as we avoid the AK death vortex, La Nina will likely mean pretty active northern stream with plenty of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 3 hours ago, Isotherm said: Why scientifically though, should an active tropical cyclone season lead to enhanced ridging in the NATL? Can anyone propose a plausible pathway / causative mechanism? It could be a symptom of another driver, or it may merely be a coincidence. Further, at such advanced lead time, it is difficult to maintain a certain upper level pattern, assuming the pattern which produced +ACE is propitious for positive heights in the NATL. Nonetheless, it is an interesting correlation and we can't always explain all of them (yet at least) with physical mechanisms. I defer you to researching Florida state PHD ... oooooh crap I forget his name just now - Anyway, he did a presentation that discussed a similar subject matter, at length, at I think it was the Southern New England storm conference back in November of 2005 or 2006 ... The gist of his research was that specifically "re curving" tropical cyclone frequency was correlated reasonably well to the strength of the Icelandic low during ensuing winters. That makes sense on a very broadly sculpt sort of intuitive perspective on matters because as cyclones lift into higher latitudes they tend to transition into hybrids ...than full on (eventually) extra-tropical cyclones, that get there mechanical energy absorbed into that feature or the near-pay interface of the polar vortex in general... That lent to the +AO and lap over regions of the NAO. His work in that regard was encouraging both for this intuitive conclusion he was making, and the statistics he presented that showed that potential correlation/causality. That study was pretty strictly related to re curving behavior as I recall, however. I am not sure, however, what that means for "...ridging in the NATL?" per se - but seeing as the NAO includes that in its domain space, one would think there's a bit of a conceptual link suggested there. So ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: As long as we avoid the AK death vortex, La Nina will likely mean pretty active northern stream with plenty of chances. Death vortex is 11-12. It looks like we'll be ok but you can never be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: I defer you to researching Florida state PHD ... oooooh crap I forget his name just now - Anyway, he did a presentation that discussed a similar subject matter, at length, at I think it was the Southern New England storm conference back in November of 2005 or 2006 ... The gist of his research was that specifically "re curving" tropical cyclone frequency was correlated reasonably well to the strength of the Icelandic low during ensuing winters. That makes sense on a very broadly sculpt sort of intuitive perspective on matters because as cyclones lift into higher latitudes the tend to transition into hybrids ...than full on (eventually) extra-tropical cyclones, that get absorbed into that feature or the near-pay interface of the polar vortex in general... That lent to the +AO and lap over regions of the NAO. His work in that regard was encouraging both for this intuitive conclusion he was making, and the statistics he presented the showed that potential correlation/causality. That study was pretty strictly related to re curving behavior is I recall, however. I am not sure, however, what the means for "...ridging in the NATL?" per se - but seeing as the NAO includes that in its domain space, there's a bit conceptual leap there. So ... I think it the MIT guy-was at the same conference with you. Lance Bosart presented there-was it him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Death vortex is 11-12. It looks like we'll be ok but you can never be sure. And '98-'99, '99-'00 (and '05-'06 after December)....to name other La Ninas that had them. We've been in a pretty favorable regime though recently for avoiding deep low pressure there (though the strong Nino of 2015-2016 sort of bucked that trend)....so hopefully that continues. If it does, then we can expect more of a 2008-2009, 2010-2011, 2000-2001 flavor of La Nina...2000-2001 might not be a terrible analog if we maintain the positive PDO well into autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think it the MIT guy-was at the same conference with you. Lance Bosart presented there-was it him? I thought maybe it was Lance ...but, I think he did "Little Critters That Bite" Will - ? help ... I don't think it was Lance, no. This gentleman was definitely Florida ... unlesss Lance was moved over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 I'll take 2010-11 but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 08-09 was highly underrated around my hood. Sneaky way AN snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 I'd like to see Feb 2015 happen at something other than an ambient mean temperature of 9 F as the 'in storm' thermal layout... Like 30 F at those snow totals... And, do that in December, followed by a walk between Logan air port and Province town sort of cold January - heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I thought maybe it was Lance ...but, I think he did "Little Critters That Bite" Will - ? help ... I don't think it was Lance, no. This gentleman was definitely Florida ... unlesss Lance was moved over.. Did you exchange emails with him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Some of CT was actually above average snowfall that winter...particularly notable in elevated W CT and elevated SW CT...but even up to NE CT did pretty well. I think Kevin's hood in Tolland had around 70 inches that winter. Not a good pack winter though...most snowfall got vaporized within days of falling. Back in ORH, I had around 70" as well...but terrible pack retention with the lone exception of December where we had snowpack almost the entire month (basically 12/4 onward when we had a 3" event)...I think peak depth was around 17" on January 3rd after a very heavy wet snowstorm...had a good elevation gradient in that one. About 10" of paste fell on top of a 6-8" pack. Shortly after that though, the brutal mid-January thaw occurred with multiple cutters and many days in the 50s...even in between cutters it never really cooled off much. We did get another well-timed 9" event on 1/23...that month was very strange in having the distinction of being a top 5 warmest January on record (+8.2) but still producing over 24" of snow. I had a 24" storm on 2/12/2006. That was a pretty good storm too for rates but yeah, it was one of those winters that just couldn't get going but did have decent periods as well as sucky ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did you exchange emails with him? You were there. I remember your daughter was sick (she was little then obviously) and you were checking in at home with your flip phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Did you exchange emails with him? yeah we were trying to figure out just how your brain can possibly generate enough raw power to motivate your posts... It's still a hot on-going subject of scientific research - according to the last email I got from which ever it was: Lance or 'that other one' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: And '98-'99, '99-'00 (and '05-'06 after December)....to name other La Ninas that had them. We've been in a pretty favorable regime though recently for avoiding deep low pressure there (though the strong Nino of 2015-2016 sort of bucked that trend)....so hopefully that continues. If it does, then we can expect more of a 2008-2009, 2010-2011, 2000-2001 flavor of La Nina...2000-2001 might not be a terrible analog if we maintain the positive PDO well into autumn. i'll take '00-'01 all day every day. loved that winter as much as i loved '02-'03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 55 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not a fan of a few big snows then they get vaporized, Retention hound up here for obvious reasons. Me too. Same reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If it does, then we can expect more of a 2008-2009, 2010-2011, 2000-2001 flavor of La Nina...2000-2001 might not be a terrible analog if we maintain the positive PDO well into autumn. A blend of those three winters would be ridiculous haha. JSpin had near 200" with the first two and probably would've in 2000-01 if he lived there. Ha at Stowe the upper mountain snowfall mean would be 374" for those winters. One can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 59 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think it the MIT guy-was at the same conference with you. Lance Bosart presented there-was it him? Dr Hart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I defer you to researching Florida state PHD ... oooooh crap I forget his name just now - Anyway, he did a presentation that discussed a similar subject matter, at length, at I think it was the Southern New England storm conference back in November of 2005 or 2006 ... The gist of his research was that specifically "re curving" tropical cyclone frequency was correlated reasonably well to the strength of the Icelandic low during ensuing winters. That makes sense on a very broadly sculpt sort of intuitive perspective on matters because as cyclones lift into higher latitudes they tend to transition into hybrids ...than full on (eventually) extra-tropical cyclones, that get there mechanical energy absorbed into that feature or the near-pay interface of the polar vortex in general... That lent to the +AO and lap over regions of the NAO. His work in that regard was encouraging both for this intuitive conclusion he was making, and the statistics he presented that showed that potential correlation/causality. That study was pretty strictly related to re curving behavior as I recall, however. I am not sure, however, what that means for "...ridging in the NATL?" per se - but seeing as the NAO includes that in its domain space, one would think there's a bit of a conceptual link suggested there. So ... Thanks. Did some digging and found his research. Plausible mechanism for sure. He essentially asserts that over a certain threshold of poleward recurving cyclones, the resultant heat transport decreases winter-time baroclinicity partially via reduction of the pole-equator gradient, leading to warmer weather over the mid-latitudes (probably, implicitly suggesting a +AO). In other words, winter enthusiasts would actually desire suppressed recurving activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Strong and very strong winter El Ninos tend to favor a deeper than normal Icelandic low... and also stout westerlies, and tendency for troughing in the global subtropics. Those two latter reasons are commonly associated with recurvatures of tropical systems originating from African waves. Indeed when you look at all 6 hurricane seasons preceding high end El Ninos (1957,1965,1972,1982,1997,2015) the theme is overwhelmingly recurvature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Just now, Isotherm said: Thanks. Did some digging and found his research. Plausible mechanism for sure. He essentially asserts that over a certain threshold of poleward recurving cyclones, the resultant heat transport decreases winter-time baroclinicity partially via reduction of the pole-equator gradient, leading to warmer weather over the mid-latitudes. In other words, winter enthusiasts would actually desire suppressed recurving activity. We debunked his theory up here several years ago and just take one look at recent data since that paper. That paper also was reejcted by several peers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I'll take 2010-11 but that's just me. This. Nice Front loaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This. Nice Front loaded winter. I'd almost call that winter "central-loaded"...Boxing Day to Groundhog Day. Though we did get good cold prior to Christmas even if we were lacking good snow events...and we stayed fairly cold into late February (sans a 2-3 day thaw) before the cutter-parade in March. But the real true meat of that winter was really like January 7-Feb 2nd. No thaws at all and almost continuous snow threats. Great winter though. I'd call 2008-2009 a front loaded winter...2007-2008 as well. ENSO state does give us a better shot at a wintry December than what we've seen in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Not a fan of a few big snows then they get vaporized, Retention hound up here for obvious reasons. I like my winters like 02/03 from 11/27 to 3/27 only had 7 days without snow cover and they were all in Dec, it snowed every 3 days or so , Jan 03 was super cold but snowed enough south of the Pike to make it sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd almost call that winter "central-loaded"...Boxing Day to Groundhog Day. Though we did get good cold prior to Christmas even if we were lacking good snow events...and we stayed fairly cold into late February (sans a 2-3 day thaw) before the cutter-parade in March. But the real true meat of that winter was really like January 7-Feb 2nd. No thaws at all and almost continuous snow threats. Great winter though. I'd call 2008-2009 a front loaded winter...2007-2008 as well. ENSO state does give us a better shot at a wintry December than what we've seen in recent years. Yeah.... I guess you're pretty much right with that. Didn't really get kicked off until Boxing Day. i do remember a minor event before Christmas down this way. I also recall the cape getting some decent snow too, maybe I'm thinking of the wrong year though. That Jan was awesome. I was a junior in high school and I think we had like 4-5 snow days in that month alone. Snowpack was great, behind 2014-15 obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We debunked his theory up here several years ago and just take one look at recent data since that paper. That paper also was reejcted by several peers. It's just a tool like everything else IMO, and doesn't carry significant weight in and of itself. Not sure what his sample size was in terms of years, but if you're referring to data since 2006, that's a very small sample to ascertain whether his hypothesis is correct or not. What did the other papers find - the inverse conclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd almost call that winter "central-loaded"...Boxing Day to Groundhog Day. Though we did get good cold prior to Christmas even if we were lacking good snow events...and we stayed fairly cold into late February (sans a 2-3 day thaw) before the cutter-parade in March. But the real true meat of that winter was really like January 7-Feb 2nd. No thaws at all and almost continuous snow threats. Great winter though. I'd call 2008-2009 a front loaded winter...2007-2008 as well. ENSO state does give us a better shot at a wintry December than what we've seen in recent years. January 2011 was my snowiest month ever with about 56". That's almost my seasonal average. I'd repeat that. We even had October & May snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 Just now, Isotherm said: It's just a tool like everything else IMO, and doesn't carry significant weight in and of itself. Not sure what his sample size was in terms of years, but if you're referring to data since 2006, that's a very small sample to ascertain whether his hypothesis is correct or not. His paper dealt with the Mid atlantic primarily any ways, but multiple peers cast doubt on his results and specifically on his lack of sample by the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah.... I guess you're pretty much right with that. Didn't really get kicked off until Boxing Day. i do remember a minor event before Christmas down this way. I also recall the cape getting some decent snow too, maybe I'm thinking of the wrong year though. That Jan was awesome. I was a junior in high school and I think we had like 4-5 snow days in that month alone. Snowpack was great, behind 2014-15 obviously Nope, that's the right year...Cape got hit hard on the 20-21st from a poorly predicted retro-storm backing in. The rest of us got like 2-3", but they got 8-12". It was enough to give us a white Christmas. We whiffed on a good threat around the 15th, but the cold was there until we got the bigger one on Boxing Day. If we avoid the death vortex, we have a very good shot at a cold December...every non-death vortex Nina has posted one since 1984...that was the last normal Nina that didn't have a cold December...the others (2011, 1998 and 1999) all had horrendous death vortex patterns that were dominant starting in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 anyone have snow depth for Boston winters?...if not I have many hours of research coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 53 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Thanks. Did some digging and found his research. Plausible mechanism for sure. He essentially asserts that over a certain threshold of poleward recurving cyclones, the resultant heat transport decreases winter-time baroclinicity partially via reduction of the pole-equator gradient, leading to warmer weather over the mid-latitudes (probably, implicitly suggesting a +AO). In other words, winter enthusiasts would actually desire suppressed recurving activity. Precisely ...right ... He actually went so far as to say '+AO', implicitly to boot - The other thing about that, though ... one could argue that blocking at high latitudes could also correlated given certain 'conditional' parametrics at very large scale. In other words ...his correlations' cogency aside, those are prooobably non-linear. I mean they have to be dynamic - right? Assuming so... high latitude blocking (and even the cousin to that, SSW's) have been time-lag linked with terminating planetary waves (decaying WAA events) at high latitudes/altitudes over the 60th parallel... So, logically there is a bit of a dispute between the two studies here - fascinating. At least it seems that way on the surface (no pun intended..) I haven't read his paper in a long while though and frankly...I'm getting close to shutting down weather as a social media hobby too - so... I may not be long for this thing. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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