Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[mitchnick]

Bastardi winter preliminary

https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Bastardi winter preliminary

https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18

Didn't even have to open it to know what he's predicting. He knows what sells subscriptions. Maybe he's right, who knows 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I lived through the bad winters of the 80s and those bad stretches in the 90s but that is not the point.

If you're a bad franchise that finally makes the playoffs, being satisfied with just that is the epitomy of a losers mentality. You think the 4 straight afc champ Bills teams need tobe humbled?

When you are in the superbowl every winter nowadays, I guess Im being greedy by wanting to finally win one. And a I speak soley about big events, not seasonal totals.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 8/19/2017 at 2:42 PM, Hazey said:

I guess some peeps need to be humbled. Especially the young ones. Nothing that a 5 year winter drought can't fix. Might happen again. Who knows. I'd be happy with a somewhat wintery festive period this year even if the rest of the winter shiats the bed but that's me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Says the guy who got white juan 2.0 and eas constantly bombarded last winter.

Perspective is everything.

And I agree with Tip and Hoth too but that is all the more reason to try to cash in with a lifetime memorable event. If someone can guarantee a hecs every winter in the northeast then i wont concern myself of busting cuz there is just another in the pipeline. So again, my point is if the extremes dont last then all the more reason to get it now. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

On 8/19/2017 at 8:51 PM, mitchnick said:

Bastardi winter preliminary

https://www.weatherbell.com/prelim-winter-2017-18

The precipitation anomaly maps seem to cut the heaviest snow off just East of MPM's house.     

[Isotherm]

JAMSTEC furnaces with its latest August update.

[dryslot]

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The precipitation anomaly maps seem to cut the heaviest snow off just East of MPM's house.     

lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

On ‎8‎/‎21‎/‎2017 at 7:44 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I lived through the bad winters of the 80s and those bad stretches in the 90s but that is not the point.

If you're a bad franchise that finally makes the playoffs, being satisfied with just that is the epitomy of a losers mentality. You think the 4 straight afc champ Bills teams need tobe humbled?

When you are in the superbowl every winter nowadays, I guess Im being greedy by wanting to finally win one. And a I speak soley about big events, not seasonal totals.

Luke sounds like me lol

 

I'm pretty satisfied....not much that I haven't gotten to experience in my time on the boards.

However the tropics are a different story.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

On 8/21/2017 at 7:56 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Says the guy who got white juan 2.0 and eas constantly bombarded last winter.

Perspective is everything.

And I agree with Tip and Hoth too but that is all the more reason to try to cash in with a lifetime memorable event. If someone can guarantee a hecs every winter in the northeast then i wont concern myself of busting cuz there is just another in the pipeline. So again, my point is if the extremes dont last then all the more reason to get it now. 

I can't help but feel we are in a regime of HECS potential at least for the time being.   The pattern just seems to keep giving and I have not seen many reasons to deviate from that.   That certainly does not mean that you and I will see jackpots because it has been,  for whatever meteorological reasons, an ENE bonanza.  Yeah parts of NNE did quite well last year but WNE has been a different story.  Sure, we have not been skunked but rarely in the cross hairs.  My gut feeling says that continues this winter with Ray to Ginx having the best potential to over perform.   It seems like we get our AN precipitation in the summer not winter in this regime. 

[codfishsnowman]

6 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I can't help but feel we are in a regime of HECS potential at least for the time being.   The pattern just seems to keep giving and I have not seen many reasons to deviate from that.   That certainly does not mean that you and I will see jackpots because it has been,  for whatever meteorological reasons, an ENE bonanza.  Yeah parts of NNE did quite well last year but WNE has been a different story.  Sure, we have not been skunked but rarely in the cross hairs.  My gut feeling says that continues this winter with Ray to Ginx having the best potential to over perform.   It seems like we get our AN precipitation in the summer not winter in this regime. 

agree

[NorEastermass128]

On 8/21/2017 at 7:44 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I lived through the bad winters of the 80s and those bad stretches in the 90s but that is not the point.

If you're a bad franchise that finally makes the playoffs, being satisfied with just that is the epitomy of a losers mentality. You think the 4 straight afc champ Bills teams need tobe humbled?

When you are in the superbowl every winter nowadays, I guess Im being greedy by wanting to finally win one. And a I speak soley about big events, not seasonal totals.

I went 0-162 last winter in VA. 

Even a couple wins will feel like a blockbuster year to me. Can't wait. 

[ORH_wxman]

I don't see any sign at all of a comeback for weak El Nino...this is either going to be cold neutral or La Nina...the subsurface won't allow for anything else in time to have much of an impact on this winter I don't think. It's possible we trend it back toward warm ENSO late, but with the 2-3 month lag to our wx, it probably won't matter.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/25/2017 at 10:42 AM, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see any sign at all of a comeback for weak El Nino...this is either going to be cold neutral or La Nina...the subsurface won't allow for anything else in time to have much of an impact on this winter I don't think. It's possible we trend it back toward warm ENSO late, but with the 2-3 month lag to our wx, it probably won't matter.

 

 

Yea, some adjustments to be made.

Nice call by Chuck.

Hoping for a weak la niña, now.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw, the consolidate 3.4 has weak and/or "faux" Nina conditions eventually ...quite a ways out in time; not really in the band-width of this winter, however.  Most of the indicators to me look pretty neutral.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nope, epic winter in route...

solar minimum mimicking the 1970s during a period of global cooling.  Pattern propensity during these times are reasonably well correlated; western ridge, eastern trough rest-state/normal PNAP pattern enters the positive anomaly phase. 

That's code for higher than normal chances for western ridge anomalies ...

One difference now is that the positive flux in the Global climate is so extreme that it may be masking any result of temperature ... different discussion. 

Neutral Pacific ENSO is less inhibitory to polarward index regions entering their respective blocking and those fields end up dominating the flow structure.  MJO's are prone to positive feed-backs in the 7-2 phases...where the presence of those wave spaces then enter a positive wave superposition in the means. Essentially, we end with NW flow through western Canada into the U.S. as the rest state - that doesn't end well for those that dread winter. 

_________________________

By the way,...  There is research right now about an apparent weakening magnetic flux density spanning the last 30 to 50 years worth of solar cycling... This secondary differential is taking place over the duration of positive and negative phases of the 11  and 22 year periodicity, where Gaussian numbers are in steady decline.  That declination is on a graph getting precariously close to the those found (via coring/environmental sciences consistent) during the Maunder minimum.  The exact 'reasons' for the correlations escape me; I haven't been exposed to those science - but... there is a strong correlation between the solar magnetic field fluxes and global temperatures ... I can concoct a lot of reasonable sounding conjecture as to why that would be but.. 

Global warming offsets that ... Removing that aspect (as it is most plausibly keyed into fluxes of green-house gases that are above the background (normal) geological absorption means), and we may be on the precipice of something similar to what took place centuries ago.  GW changes the landscape just a wee bit. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

ENSO update after the Harvey wrap-up:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-verification-and.html

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Nice write up Ray.  DO you think if the NW Atlantic remains above average SSTs, we could see an above average amount of major nor'easters/Blizzards with low pressure riding up the East Coast from Cape Hatteras to a position southeast of Nantucket, MA?  I don't think those warm SSTs will allow anything but a large pressure drop as it crosses the natural baroclinic zone, I just hope they don't get shunted southeast everytime a Manitoba Mauler disturbance comes through the flow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Nice write up Ray.  DO you think if the NW Atlantic remains above average SSTs, we could see an above average amount of major nor'easters/Blizzards with low pressure riding up the East Coast from Cape Hatteras to a position southeast of Nantucket, MA?  I don't think those warm SSTs will allow anything but a large pressure drop as it crosses the natural baroclinic zone, I just hope they don't get shunted southeast everytime a Manitoba Mauler disturbance comes through the flow.

I think we could see an active storm track in the northeast, given the cold that could be centered to our west, and the warmth to our east and south.

[SnowHole413]

I have a feeling winter is going to start a lot earlier than past years. Weak La Niña and a -qbo give me this feeling. I am pretty confident that this winter has front loaded written all over it. Not to sure about mid feb on though.

[weathafella]

It's hard not to be at least somewhat optimistic for snow/cold upcoming.   We need another 2 months to see where this goes but I see no glaring negatives and there are some positives.

[J Paul Gordon]

Does have that "feel" that winter will start earlier this year than it has of late. No science here, just the sort of feeling you get when you live in a place for 6+decades and have experienced a lot of winters.

[uncle W]

cold start la nina or weak negative winters with a mild February...

 

[moneypitmike]

On 8/27/2017 at 11:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ENSO update after the Harvey wrap-up:

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-verification-and.html

we pray for qpf.

[CoastalWx]

18 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Does have that "feel" that winter will start earlier this year than it has of late. No science here, just the sort of feeling you get when you live in a place for 6+decades and have experienced a lot of winters.

I'll bump this when we are in speedos come November.

[tamarack]

18 hours ago, uncle W said:

cold start la nina or weak negative winters with a mild February...

 

Take away Feb 1981 and 1984 and the Northeast probably backs to normal.  (They're mildest and 3rd mildest on record at CAR, 2nd and 3rd mildest at Farmington.)  Dump those 2 and the other 9 come to about 0.5F BN at CAR, and a couple tenths BN at Farmington.

[JC-CT]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll bump this when we are in speedos come November.

You would, too. With respect to both bumping the post, and wearing a speedo.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure it is worth much ...but.. .interesting anecdotally perhaps - 

I just had my driveway redone.  Lifted the old; relayed with new hot top and all.  

The contractor and I were discussing sealers and other stuff and he sort of slipped it along the way in there about the "...Harsh winter coming..."  Of course, I was kind of half paying attention while nodding agreeably, like those settings normally go - me thinking, 'okay - just make sure the sucker is laid right' while a 'agreed'.  But when that gesture registered, suddenly I found myself transfixed.  "What - what did you say."

Like, here's this dirt-necked petrol smelly dude advising me about 'harsh winters'  ?  So I had to ask... 

He launched into this diatribe about missing so much work this summer (their important season for that sort of work) because of the rains... He said he'd been doing this work for years, and "...Trust - me this winters gonna be bad, dude" ...so don't do x-y-z until spring.   

It just was interesting to me to hear that perspective sort of arriving at the same conclusion that we dance around (though no one has the sack to admit... heh) here, using completely differents means to get there.  

 

[SJonesWX]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure it is worth much ...but.. .interesting anecdotally perhaps - 

I just had my driveway redone.  Lifted the old; relayed with new hot top and all.  

The contractor and I were discussing sealers and other stuff and he sort of slipped it along the way in there about the "...Harsh winter coming..."  Of course, I was kind of half paying attention while nodding agreeably, like those settings normally go - me thinking, 'okay - just make sure the sucker is laid right' while a 'agreed'.  But when that gesture registered, suddenly I found myself transfixed.  "What - what did you say."

Like, here's this dirt-necked petrol smelly dude advising me about 'harsh winters'  ?  So I had to ask... 

He launched into this diatribe about missing so much work this summer (their important season for that sort of work) because of the rains... He said he'd been doing this work for years, and "...Trust - me this winters gonna be bad, dude" ...so don't do x-y-z until spring.   

It just was interesting to me to hear that perspective sort of arriving at the same conclusion that we dance around (though no one has the sack to admit... heh) here, using completely differents means to get there.  

 

not for nothing, but don't seal the new driveway for at least 1 year, no matter what the guy says. give it some time to set up.

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats everyone who rooted on the not hot summer! 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats everyone who rooted on the not hot summer! 

Nina Febs are AN in the east...yes, I know there are exceptions.  My point is, it's probably not as bad as it looks (only +1 for you which ain't bad) if you take out February's forecast. March usually ends up BN for you and us too, but too little too late for us. I would think that forecast would be good for you in the snowfall department.