Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Grinch met his match?

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2012/12/24/1983-the-coldest-christmas-ever/

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Grinch met his match?

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2012/12/24/1983-the-coldest-christmas-ever/

Yeah that was a sick outbreak...but I still prefer 1995...that was just literally cold with snow event after snow event from about Dec 10th onward...no thaws. We even had mood snow (with some minor accums) like every day between Dec 22-Dec 26 after the underpeforming Nor' Easter on Dec 20-21 (though it still dropped 6-10 inches on top of an already good snow pack).

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that was a sick outbreak...but I still prefer 1995...that was just literally cold with snow event after snow event from about Dec 10th onward...no thaws. We even had mood snow (with some minor accums) like every day between Dec 22-Dec 26 after the underpeforming Nor' Easter on Dec 20-21 (though it still dropped 6-10 inches on top of an already good snow pack).

Def.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def.

It feels like we've been punished for years after December 1995....like the perfect way to run the holiday season.

I guess 2000 and 2002 were pretty good, but man, the Grinches that stained 2007, 2008, and 2013 are still very vivid. At least 2007 and 2008 were still pretty deep on Christmas day...even if glacial in consistency. But it doesn't remove the stench of a 55F rainstorm on dec 24th while getting last minute Xmas shopping done.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It feels like we've been punished for years after December 1995....like the perfect way to run the holiday season.

I guess 2000 and 2002 were pretty good, but man, the Grinches that stained 2007, 2008, and 2013 are still very vivid. At least 2007 and 2008 were still pretty deep on Christmas day...even if glacial in consistency. But it doesn't remove the stench of a 55F rainstorm on dec 24th while getting last minute Xmas shopping done.

Meanwhile, some petulant little SOB out in the corn fields of Iowa keeps making naked snow angels on xmas morning.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It feels like we've been punished for years after December 1995....like the perfect way to run the holiday season.

I guess 2000 and 2002 were pretty good, but man, the Grinches that stained 2007, 2008, and 2013 are still very vivid. At least 2007 and 2008 were still pretty deep on Christmas day...even if glacial in consistency. But it doesn't remove the stench of a 55F rainstorm on dec 24th while getting last minute Xmas shopping done.

I remember 2013 pretty vividly as 70 F ...or 65 anyway, Xmas morning ...with fetid brown leaves tumbling around in the wind on my parent's beige front lawn. In fact, it was so absurd that it went the other way (psycho-babble) ... We were all in shorts and tivas out for a nice long extended family walk around the town park and such, in tepid sun and wafting warmth.  Was really just absolutely stunningly beautiful, despite absolutely stunningly unwanted - the apex in irony.  Weird for lack of better word...  

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I remember 2013 pretty vividly as 70 F ...or 65 anyway, Xmas morning ...with fetid brown leaves tumbling around in the wind on my parent's beige front lawn. In fact, it was so absurd that it went the other way (psycho-babble) ... We were all in shorts and tivas out for a nice long extended family walk around the town park and such, in tepid sun and wafting warmth.  Was really just absolutely stunningly beautiful, despite absolutely stunningly unwanted - the apex in irony.  Weird for lack of better word...  

 

I thought 2013 Xmas was actually fairly chilly 

[uncle W]

1965 was a bad year for Yankee fans like myself and a white Christmas...it was the first time in many years they had a loosing season...Christmas 1965 was rainy and mild...1965 was the first time since 1958 there was no snow the week before Christmas...Christmas 1964 was 69 degrees in Newark N.J. ...snowcover melted Christmas eve...the Yankees lost the world series in 1964 and the white Christmas melted before Santa left for the usa...1964 was the first Christmas without at least one inch of snow on the ground in Philadelphia since 1958...after 1966 I didn't see a heavy snowstorm before Christmas till 1995...2009 was marred by rain Christmas night...otherwise it would have been as good as 1995...

[ORH_wxman]

44 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I thought 2013 Xmas was actually fairly chilly 

Yeah it was...might be remembering the next year in 2014 or even 2015...both torches...2013 did have a very warm day on 12/22 though before Christmas. We ended up with a swiss cheese snow pack that year because of it after it melted down 16 inches of powder that had fallen between 12/10-12/17.

[Hoth]

Christmas '15 was insanely warm. Had Xmas lunch on the deck and got legit sunburned. No jackets required.

[Juliancolton]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Christmas '15 was insanely warm. Had Xmas lunch on the deck and got legit sunburned. No jackets required.

Warmer than the preceding 4th of July imby... that really struck me. 

[CoastalWx]

I blacked out Christmas '15 from my memory. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was...might be remembering the next year in 2014 or even 2015...both torches...2013 did have a very warm day on 12/22 though before Christmas. We ended up with a swiss cheese snow pack that year because of it after it melted down 16 inches of powder that had fallen between 12/10-12/17.

yeah... 2014 ... I remember now thinking it was pretty fantastic bad luck to get that two years back-to-back.

[Hoth]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... 2014 ... I remember now thinking it was pretty fantastic bad luck to get that two years back-to-back.

If only we'd known then what was to come five weeks later.

[weathafella]

Was it 2014 with a boundary on the south side of BOS?  I remember driving home around midnight after gassing up with temps around 67.  It was low 40s when I got home 5 miles north.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Was it 2014 with a boundary on the south side of BOS?  I remember driving home around midnight after gassing up with temps around 67.  It was low 40s when I got home 5 miles north.

Prob 2013...it was right before Christmas...there was an ice storm up in NNE. We briefly had 60s in the pike region but then we got backdoored and actually fell through the 40s on the 23rd and eventually fell down to near freezing over the interior. It's actually what saved the thinning snowpack north of the pike interior region while Kevin was sipping pina coladas in Tolland with his brown grass. I remember a nasty drizzle and upper 30s during the original pre-Xmas GTG at Clark's....which happened to be Dec 23rd that year.

 

I remember Ray and I were teasing Kevin about the snowpack and he was getting violently angry...I don't think he bought his girls any Christmas presents that year.

 

[weathafella]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Prob 2013...it was right before Christmas...there was an ice storm up in NNE. We briefly had 60s in the pike region but then we got backdoored and actually fell through the 40s on the 23rd and eventually fell down to near freezing over the interior. It's actually what saved the thinning snowpack north of the pike interior region while Kevin was sipping pina coladas in Tolland with his brown grass. I remember a nasty drizzle and upper 30s during the original pre-Xmas GTG at Clark's....which happened to be Dec 23rd that year.

 

I remember Ray and I were teasing Kevin about the snowpack and he was getting violently angry...I don't think he bought his girls any Christmas presents that year.

 

No that's not the one-2013 was memorable.  The boundary moved north for Christmas Day so we were mild but more downslope vs southerly torch.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No that's not the one-2013 was memorable.  The boundary moved north for Christmas Day so we were mild but more downslope vs southerly torch.

Oh I think you might be remembering 2012...we actually had snowfall that morning. I had about an inch with puffy currier and ives flakes. That was the first Christmas I drove down to NJ for to visit Megan's family....I left ORH around noontime with temps in the low to mid 30s and snow cover...I arrived in NJ with temps around 50F and downsloping winds....though the actual temp may have been a bit colder...that was a car thermo reading.

Though your 67F recollection might not quite match because it never got that warm...but we def had a sfc boundary that day. Maybe you were remembering 2014 or 2015...but I'm not recalling a distinct boundary in either of those years...just flat our torch.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh I think you might be remembering 2012...we actually had snowfall that morning. I had about an inch with puffy currier and ives flakes. That was the first Christmas I drove down to NJ for to visit Megan's family....I left ORH around noontime with temps in the low to mid 30s and snow cover...I arrived in NJ with temps in the low 50s and downsloping winds.

Though your 67F recollection might not quite match because it never got that warm...but we def had a sfc boundary that day. Maybe you were remembering 2014 or 2015...but I'm not recalling a distinct boundary in either of those years...just flat our torch.

Not that one.  I think 2014.  It was a weak low level boundary maybe a few hundred feet.

[dryslot]

Wow, Will Offa 2 on that event, A rarity indeed......lol

[WXEnthusiast]

Hopefully we get a -NAO this winter so we get blocking.

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, weathafella said:

Not that one.  I think 2014.  It was a weak low level boundary maybe a few hundred feet.

That boundary was literally over my fanny. We torched briefly that morning. I took a shower and got out to pea soup fog and a temp in the low 40s like 15 min later. The guy two miles south of me was sipping cosmos near 60.  It oscillated a few times. I ended up taking my son down to Stoughton at that Jordan's furniture Christmas display they have in the store, and it was literally like 400' above ground. The low clouds just off the trees tops were flying from S to N. It did torch there in he aftn, but what a mesoscale event. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Xmas blows in warmth. Im also sick of busting right left up and down on big events. This is the winter it all changes, I can feel it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Xmas blows in warmth. Im also sick of busting right left up and down on big events. This is the winter it all changes, I can feel it. 

Not to insinuate anything but, how old are you?

Seriously, I am middle aged .. which means, I have a few decades on the odometer over here, and many miles of that have passed through era's that were quite disappointingly deficient, and worse, for winter enthusiasm, holidays or not.

"Im also sick of busting...",  that's where I giggled.  Sick of busting when, exactly?   Try 1984 - 1990.  Sure , it wasn't like a total torture dungeon of seasonal depravity every winter in there, but, that era was still cruel to those whose backs were already bruised by busting. 'Oh, you're also sick of busting?  well, take that, that and that!!! Muah hahahahaa' 

Let's call it 10 years for spit and theory and thusly lable it as 'the decade of cirrus'.... biting cold at times when it did, too. Symbolically, it was as though every last breath of expectation for winter, from Norman Rockwell paintings of the like to Ansel Adams' striking stenciled black and white photography and back, the heritage was vanquished into the winds of a new, bleak assumption of winter really means.  We were so eradicated of any pretense in the matter by years of unrelenting conditional assaults in under-performance (and busts!), that they were no longer actual busts anymore.

There were some vicious continental arctic outbreaks in the late '80s, too (sort of helped rub in that symbology) - it really was quite extraordinary that more actual snow was not able to aggregate during those years. Man when you think about it...  You know, and the funny thing is, all that happened after the gold-rush era of the 1970s (maybe call that one the 'snowed rush era')  Which had it's dearths too; these 'eras,' they are not pure.  By and large, those years prior produced much more prolifically.  Gee - go wonder... (1970s+1980s)/2 might just look average.. ?

In fairness, we did get some storms that I remember though - as I said, it was not torturous at all times.  We had a good one 1987 ... early February I wanna say (Will would probably know).  The forecast was for one of these 2-4" followed by a change to cold rain deals. We wound up with a 'positive bust,' the biggest one of memory to date for me personally. I remember it was perhaps 11:30 am, and noting that the temperature was still just 22 F, under a sky that was cast' over in a metallic hue; if you studied it long and hard like the odd-ball weather dork that set himself up for ridicule that I was ... you could make out these subtle undulates - like those busted ravioli mammatus you see before coastal storms ...just after the sun's failing glow finally vanishes?  The air smelled cold ... it just did; it takes a certain pedigree naturalist but for some, we can smell the omen of the snowstorm like birds taking flight or elephants stampeding before the Earth quake.  Sometime around 1: or 2: PM tiny, uniform flakes quickly reduced the visibility to a mile or so.  I was already by then privy to the idea in weather that smaller flakes don't usually portent a very rapid p-type change, and coupled with the biting chill in the air ... suspicions welled ... and that bi-polar jolt into gaiety widened eyes in hope. Could it be? It's not supposed to snow anymore - remember? 

I happened to be over at Nashoba Valley Ski just after school had let out ...circa 3: PM ... and right around then, that 5,280 foot visibility snow of tiny uniform flakes, abruptly became 52.80 foot visibility tiny uniform flakes of snow.  The onset of crackling loud thunder forced the early closure of the slopes.  That was first time I saw 5" of snow fall in a single hour since moving to Southern New England with my family back in '83 ... then having 2" again two hours over... and totally, 10" falling in about four hours or so and I was appalled how my Stockholm Syndrome identification with the 'no snow bullschit winter' was so violated.  Happy in sin for it, too.  

I think in 1989 we had a good Coastal and snow event the eve of Thanks giving .. and there may have been other's spanning the decade of cirrus.

[Hoth]

We've been so spoiled the last 20 years. The bar has been lofted so high it's almost to the point where southern New Englanders just assume there will be a footer each season and "meh" anything under 15". Time was when you'd realistically go 5 years between events that size, now it seems every other year there's some prospective MECS or HECS nearby and it's "24, lollies to 30," or bust. Maybe it's just some cyclical thing and we're doomed to suffer another '80s type drought, or maybe it's changing climate and this is the new normal (please, God), but very few people in here can claim the last X years have been a total bust. Everyone's been clocked at some point.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, Hoth said:

We've been so spoiled the last 20 years. The bar has been lofted so high it's almost to the point where southern New Englanders just assume there will be a footer each season and "meh" anything under 15". Time was when you'd realistically go 5 years between events that size, now it seems every other year there's some prospective MECS or HECS nearby and it's "24, lollies to 30," or bust. Maybe it's just some cyclical thing and we're doomed to suffer another '80s type drought, or maybe it's changing climate and this is the new normal (please, God), but very few people in here can claim the last X years have been a total bust. Everyone's been clocked at some point.

Yep... I very much agree with this sentiment over all...  I used the term "conditionalizing" in that previous conjecture - but I (not tooting horns) I think that's spot on really.

You get popped 10 years in a row, over even the majority of those 10 years will do it, chances are from memes in social-media, to water coolers and supper tables, to thoughts that flick through the transience of the single minds ...it all sort of takes on an impression of whatever 'abuses' that 10 years is whipping our senses with.  Heh.  right?

In this case... we've had some bad years... But we've DEFINITELY been lucky that last ... okay 20 years.  I'd say it goes back to Pinnetubo - that seemed to be when the affluence of snowier times really began.  Maybe Will or Scott or Steve ?   Let's do this... find the seasonal snow totals for the four major climo sites (let special studies ride for now..) for every year since 1980. I know it's tedious, but I am curious "weather" or not more "+" seasonal totals have happened in the later half of that 37 years - it's probably a foregone conclusion.

Anyway, even in the dearth years of the 1980s ...I remember being introduced to water-cooler climate talk then that Xmas snow was rare around these parts, and that included the 1970s...so, I think there might be some anecdotal if not significance to the assessment that if it's brown on the holiday, that might be closer to normal outside of elevations?

[dendrite]

47 minutes ago, Hoth said:

We've been so spoiled the last 20 years. The bar has been lofted so high it's almost to the point where southern New Englanders just assume there will be a footer each season and "meh" anything under 15". Time was when you'd realistically go 5 years between events that size, now it seems every other year there's some prospective MECS or HECS nearby and it's "24, lollies to 30," or bust. Maybe it's just some cyclical thing and we're doomed to suffer another '80s type drought, or maybe it's changing climate and this is the new normal (please, God), but very few people in here can claim the last X years have been a total bust. Everyone's been clocked at some point.

nWo

new weather order

 

[Hazey]

I guess some peeps need to be humbled. Especially the young ones. Nothing that a 5 year winter drought can't fix. Might happen again. Who knows. I'd be happy with a somewhat wintery festive period this year even if the rest of the winter shiats the bed but that's me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yep... I very much agree with this sentiment over all...  I used the term "conditionalizing" in that previous conjecture - but I (not tooting horns) I think that's spot on really.

You get popped 10 years in a row, over even the majority of those 10 years will do it, chances are from memes in social-media, to water coolers and supper tables, to thoughts that flick through the transience of the single minds ...it all sort of takes on an impression of whatever 'abuses' that 10 years is whipping our senses with.  Heh.  right?

In this case... we've had some bad years... But we've DEFINITELY been lucky that last ... okay 20 years.  I'd say it goes back to Pinnetubo - that seemed to be when the affluence of snowier times really began.  Maybe Will or Scott or Steve ?   Let's do this... find the seasonal snow totals for the four major climo sites (let special studies ride for now..) for every year since 1980. I know it's tedious, but I am curious "weather" or not more "+" seasonal totals have happened in the later half of that 37 years - it's probably a foregone conclusion.

Anyway, even in the dearth years of the 1980s ...I remember being introduced to water-cooler climate talk then that Xmas snow was rare around these parts, and that included the 1970s...so, I think there might be some anecdotal if not significance to the assessment that if it's brown on the holiday, that might be closer to normal outside of elevations?

I would say it started in the 1992-1993 winter...so yeah about a year after pinatubo. That winter we got the infamous December 1992 nor Easter and then it was overshadowed itself later that same winter by the March 1993 superstorm. Though in our own local interior MA zone, the former was probably more prolific even if March '93's 18-20" of powder Mixing briefly with sleet was no slouch...

Then a year later we followed that up with the encore of January and February 1994...just a train of overrunning snow events within a regime of Arctic outbreaks and 1050 highs to the north...at times giving us strange soundings with OES falling along the south shore while synoptic sleet was falling...yeah -12C temps at 900mb while there's a warm nose at 700-725mb. 

Then of course two years after that is the prolific 1995-1996 winter. It was like we erased a decade of frustration in a span of a few years. We had a couple lean winters in the late 1990s but we rebounded quickly in the 2000s and it hasn't seemed to quit. The duds are far out numbered these days...but as you said, those of us who remember the winter-lover's hell of the 1980s into the very early 1990s know that he pendulum will swing the other way at some point. 

[weatherwiz]

I can't wait to one day (and hopefully soon...if I can ever get a couple days free) to further look into the impacts and implificstions solar activity and the strosphere influences the development and evolution of the northern hemispheric pattern through the fall months and winter months and how wave lengths are influenced (this is something I want to look into more and study b/c I don't know much or anything).  

I know every spring and summer so much emphasis is placed on ENSO and it's evolution but I am really beginning to think that ENSO in fact doesn't quite play the role many thought...unless of course you have a really strong episode or when ENSO has been a prevalent driver of the pattern for a sustained period.  

Also further exploring the pressure anomalies which reside in and around the Gulf of Alaska and how these anomalies are shaped and influenced.  I know we have EPO, PNA, PDO to name a few but are these teleconnections influenced by the atmospheric changes/responses or is it these atmospheric changes/responses which influence the teleconnections? 

With the blossoming research with regards to the QBO it's very interesting to see how these wind propogstions from the lower stratospherento the upper troposphere play such a large role in oscillations like NAO/AO.  

While we all look to figure out the "mean" pattern for winter it's the short-term perturbations and such which can end up having the bigger overall impacts on how things turn out