Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 On 8/14/2017 at 10:26 AM, CoastalWx said: I saw the three month aggregate H5 pattern too. I would take that in a heartbeat. Looks a bit Nino like with low pressure going to Aleutians. This summer has had a resemblance to an el nino pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 23 minutes ago, Paragon said: That was the two to three footer I read about with temps near 0! I wonder how that happened? Speaking about really snowy winters, looking at the "unofficial records" there was a winter like 2 years before Central Park began keeping snowfall records that supposedly had 90" of snow. That was the last blockbuster winter of the 1800s. Pity that it didn't happen two years later. Probably 1866-1867....that was an epically cold winter over a lot of N.A....but it froze pretty much all the rivers solid in the northeast including the Hudson down to NYC and probably parts of the sounds/harbors. It was fairly snowy as well but the data on snow is really poor that far back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 26 minutes ago, Paragon said: This summer has had a resemblance to an el nino pattern. A lot of the PAC signal is still Nina in the upper levels...at least Mike Vs ENSO diagnostics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A lot of the PAC signal is still Nina in the upper levels...at least Mike Vs ENSO diagnostics. What do you make of the subsurface cooling? It's looking pretty accelerated the past 2 weeks. La Nina is definitely becoming more likely looking at that...or at least a cold-neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What do you make of the subsurface cooling? It's looking pretty accelerated the past 2 weeks. La Nina is definitely becoming more likely looking at that...or at least a cold-neutral. Looks like there has been some anomalous erly flow at 850 from like 150E-140W. So no surprise at the cooling there I guess. Looking at his Vp200 stuff...definitely some sort of CCKW and/or MJO signal in the western PAC too. I can't post the exact stuff he has, but similar to this. http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html The VP200 stuff seems to be a much better way to gauge with the forcing as the Wheeler diagram can give a false signal if some of the parameters are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 On 8/14/2017 at 2:45 PM, ORH_wxman said: Ginxy putting together his winter forecast years ago.... LOL seeing as you have never given one, I have no comeback. Interestingly I have always thought FA was a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: LOL seeing as you have never given one, I have no comeback. Interestingly I have always thought FA was a joke But, the moon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: But, the moon... Has zero to do with seasonal forecasting brah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 1800's snowstorms from old newspapers...1866-67 had three major storms that winter in NYC... . 1836 'big snow' from the NY herald from 1/10/1836... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/ 1/20/1857...'the cold snowstorm'... 1857 from the ny daily tribune... http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/ 1867 storms... January 1867 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-18/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-21/ed-1/seq-5/ March 1867 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-03-18/ed-1/seq-5/ The December 1872 storm 1872... 12/27... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-5/ 1/1/1873... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-01-01/ed-1/seq-1/ 1888... Report post Posted October 31, 2016 1888... http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50437841 http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1888-03-15/ed-1/seq-1/ The Portland storm' of November 26th-27th 1898... 1898... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341645/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341652 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-1/ 1898... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341716/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341718 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341720 later on in the winter of 1898-99 came the blizzard of February 12-13th, 1899...it was accompanied by coldest arctic outbreak of that century... http://fultonhistory...cale - 0816.pdf http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-7/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-3/ http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf http://fultonhistory...cale - 0829.pdf http://fultonhistory...cale - 0830.pdf http://chroniclingam...-14/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-14/ed-1/seq-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: But, the moon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 May have to start rooting for a weak nina, if we aren't going to have a weak nino. Chuck ftw? When was the last consecutive weak nines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Probably 1866-1867....that was an epically cold winter over a lot of N.A....but it froze pretty much all the rivers solid in the northeast including the Hudson down to NYC and probably parts of the sounds/harbors. It was fairly snowy as well but the data on snow is really poor that far back. Yes, that and a lot of the older winters had stories about people setting up shops on the river in the middle of winter and even crossing over on foot from NJ to Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: A lot of the PAC signal is still Nina in the upper levels...at least Mike Vs ENSO diagnostics. Yes, it's a very curious pattern, and chances are highest for cold neutral for the winter, though that doesn't necessarily preclude a cold winter, especially with low solar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 hours ago, uncle W said: 1800's snowstorms from old newspapers...1866-67 had three major storms that winter in NYC... . 1836 'big snow' from the NY herald from 1/10/1836... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030311/1836-01-11/ed-1/seq-2/ 1/20/1857...'the cold snowstorm'... 1857 from the ny daily tribune... http://chroniclingam...-20/ed-1/seq-5/ 1867 storms... January 1867 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-18/ed-1/seq-4/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-01-21/ed-1/seq-5/ March 1867 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1867-03-18/ed-1/seq-5/ The December 1872 storm 1872... 12/27... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1872-12-28/ed-1/seq-5/ 1/1/1873... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-01-01/ed-1/seq-1/ 1888... Report post Posted October 31, 2016 1888... http://bklyn.newspap.../image/50437841 http://chroniclingam...-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://fultonhistory...cale - 0455.pdf http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1888-03-15/ed-1/seq-1/ The Portland storm' of November 26th-27th 1898... 1898... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341645/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341652 http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1898-11-27/ed-1/seq-1/ 1898... http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341716/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341718 http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50341720 later on in the winter of 1898-99 came the blizzard of February 12-13th, 1899...it was accompanied by coldest arctic outbreak of that century... http://fultonhistory...cale - 0816.pdf http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-13/ed-1/seq-7/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-2/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-02-14/ed-1/seq-3/ http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf http://fultonhistory...cale - 0817.pdf http://fultonhistory...cale - 0829.pdf http://fultonhistory...cale - 0830.pdf http://chroniclingam...-14/ed-1/seq-1/ http://chroniclingam...-14/ed-1/seq-2/ 1836 was the one I think with the 100" of snow in NYC and PHL. With the March 1888 blizzard, indications are that it was undermeasured, with 26-32" widespread across the region. In the curious November and February winter of 1898-99 Cape May had 34" in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Isn't a weak Nina junk here for the most part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Isn't a weak Nina junk here for the most part? No....second most favorable ENSO state, behind weak el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Isn't a weak Nina junk here for the most part? We've had great winters in the past with weak ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We've had great winters in the past with weak ninas. The Debbie from Taunton is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 we had good bad and ugly winters from various enso's...this year is different from a second consecutive weak la nina year because of the failed el nino of recent months...2012 was also a failed el nino year...February 2013 will be remembered in New England for the big blizzard...I still think blocking will make or break this winter...last winter there was little blocking but when it came so did the snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Some good weak Niña winters: 2008-2009, 2000-2001, 1995-1996, 1983-1984...there's been some duds in there too like 2011-2012 and some winters in the first half of the 1950s but overall a weak Niña has been pretty solid. Last year I wouldn't classify as very good but it was OK. Pretty good for snow but probably warmer than we'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: May have to start rooting for a weak nina, if we aren't going to have a weak nino. Chuck ftw? When was the last consecutive weak nines? Yeah...I'm not at home right now, but I'd like to see the years that were the 2nd of B2B weak ninas. We're probably pushing SSS with that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Retention fail last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: May have to start rooting for a weak nina, if we aren't going to have a weak nino. Chuck ftw? When was the last consecutive weak nines? If we achieve weak Nina while concurrently maintaining a +PDO, that would be a very conducive, rare couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Yeah...I'm not at home right now, but I'd like to see the years that were the 2nd of B2B weak ninas. We're probably pushing SSS with that though. There's hardly any occurrences of back to back weak Ninas...'84-'85 you could maybe count. '96-'97 is close too...but yeah, obviously small samples. Those two winters were pretty different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 So we would want an east based niña right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Mmmm...not to swoop in heavy handedly and derail the present hypothetical course ...but, personally I think these minutia/details are less factor-ably important compared to the bigger ones upon sifting through a scaled-equation effort. Scaling equation in physics is a method for determining the greatest influence on system ... I think we'll find that the atmosphere is less sensitive to nuances in the oceanic quadrature, compared to the general distribution of SST anomalies along with the integrated OHC, in the total coupled atmospheric/oceanic model. That's a dizzying array of words that means warmer or cooler than normal in these smaller regions are probably less effective at modulating the whole atmosphere, compared to the whole of all other factors combined. ...which is also a concept that is hard to write in simple tenths ...heh. Plus, then we got to get into emergent processes too; whereby, three factors working in tandem causes the "appearance" of a fourth, but the fourth doesn't exist without the three - transitive forcing. ugh. I'd just go ENSO neutral (for all intents and purposes...) and compare it to reanalysis therein/of ...and then through in the usual caveat emptor that ENSO and polarward atmospheric indexes tend to part company and come into circulation conflicts ... That's sort of last year in a lot of ways, come to think about it... We had a complexion on the charts much of the time that looked like party, but there was way too much gradient (for whatever reason) in the means, and so that stressed the crap out of storm genesis for it's muting effects on smaller scaled disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Some good weak Niña winters: 2008-2009, 2000-2001, 1995-1996, 1983-1984...there's been some duds in there too like 2011-2012 and some winters in the first half of the 1950s but overall a weak Niña has been pretty solid. Last year I wouldn't classify as very good but it was OK. Pretty good for snow but probably warmer than we'd like. 33 minutes ago, Isotherm said: If we achieve weak Nina while concurrently maintaining a +PDO, that would be a very conducive, rare couplet. 1995-'96 was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 33 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: So we would want an east based niña right? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 1995-'96 was one. 2000-2001 had a mildly positive PDO too. But it wasn't like 1995-1996 where it was solidly positive all year leading into the winter. 1983-1984 was also a strongly positive PDO in a weak Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 2000-2001 had a mildly positive PDO too. But it wasn't like 1995-1996 where it was solidly positive all year leading into the winter. 1983-1984 was also a strongly positive PDO in a weak Nina. Off of the top of my head, I think 1983-'84 featured about exactly normal snowfall IMBY. It makes sense that 2000-'01 was interior-focused, since the Pacific was meek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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