Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

[CoastalWx]

2010 definitely was white. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Well...we've certainly nailed down that people like snow in this thread...

 

[dendrite]

I'm trying to think of the last December where we had frequent snow events and sustained cold and pack leading up to Christmas day with no torches. The only one that comes to mind is 1995. I've had some great Decembers since then, but they all had Grinches. 

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm trying to think of the last December where we had frequent snow events and sustained cold and pack leading up to Christmas day with no torches. The only one that comes to mind is 1995. I've had some great Decembers since then, but they all had Grinches. 

Yeah it's amazing how frequently the grinch storms have happened. You could almost count Dec 2000...we had the epic cutter on 12/17 but then it was cold with a few snow events leading into Christmas with the bigger storm on 12/30 afterward. Though it certainly wasn't a deep snowpack for Christmas 2000. I recall about 4-5 inches OTG. 

2010 was sustained cold after the 12/13 torching cutter but we couldn't get the snow events. We had that one retro storm which nailed the cape on 12/21 but gave most of us more like 2-4". Had a lot of mood snow to go with it though the next two days after that initial retro hit. 

2007 would have been ultimate perfection if we could have avoided the Christmas Eve cutter 

[powderfreak]

Christmas 2012 I remember two warning events between the 25th and 1st.  

That was the one time it didn't rain at the ski resort around Christmas.

[Typhoon Tip]

... Not that anyone asked but early onset winters are where it is at for me.

I personally don't have any use for endlessly faux Indian Summer days that are 58/38 from October 5th through Xmass...only to turn harshly cold and stormy into March.

F-that!  The sun is gone by October.  August is the last of the nape sun...well, call it September 15 and it's a steep slippery slope of uselessness after that.  I suppose a Hurricane might stave of the boredom thereafter; otherwise, (and I realize this is utterly unrealistic ) ...I say bring the hammer by Halloween and unrelenting cold and snow through the Holidays...

Which, despite the fact that the NFL as we know it will be defunct probably at some point over the next 10 to 20 years...I think of the Super Bowl as part of that mystique - particularly, because the Patriots are so vastly superior and more powerful than any of Kevin's NY punchline attempts are any rivalry...

Anything after that is irrelevant and denying inevitability for me.. .Well, to be fair (if not hypocrisy), some sort of historic 1888 type of one in a 400 year early spring bomb pulls me back in like a nympho debutante.. But unless that's happening, I just assume it be 70 to 80 F from anytime after the Super Bowl until the following October 1.

Buuuuut, back from la-la land...  it does make rare years where the front-side winter is more productive in that regard, that much more savory.

 

[ORH_wxman]

53 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Christmas 2012 I remember two warning events between the 25th and 1st.  

That was the one time it didn't rain at the ski resort around Christmas.

Yeah but pre-Xmas sucked. Though up there you got a great front ender on 12/21 but down here it was a quick inch washed away by heavy rain...and the two weeks before that was a huge torch with only a half-decent icing event mixed in  

I will say we got lucky though and got about an inch of snow on Xmas morning. Big fat fluffy flakes. It was between about 6-8am. It was like the movies, lol. Waking up to currier and Ives snow to save a white Christmas. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but pre-Xmas sucked. Though up there you got a great front ender on 12/21 but down here it was a quick inch washed away by heavy rain...and the two weeks before that was a huge torch with only a half-decent icing event mixed in  

I will say we got lucky though and got about an inch of snow on Xmas morning. Big fat fluffy flakes. It was between about 6-8am. It was like the movies, lol. Waking up to currier and Ives snow to save a white Christmas. 

Yeah I don't really remember earlier that DEC which must mean it sucked or wasn't memorable, lol.  I just know that is like the only Christmas time in a while with a legit snowy week all of the holiday period for skiers and riders.

Historically for whatever reason the conditions seem to suck that week more often than not.  Or at least aren't anything memorable.  Just like that 2F temp increase around Christmas at Saint Johnsbury, VT in 130 years of records lol.  It's one of the larger daily temp jumps out of all 365 days.

[uncle W]

I estimated 2010 because there was no official snow depth in the local climate data...looking at it again there could have been 1" or more on the ground Christmas morning...If the 26th27th storm happened on the 24-25th it would have been the whitest of all...

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-43E7B7A7-FF13-4F73-AE32-2DEB119E5F80.pdf

in my lifetime 1961, 1963 and 1966 are the three greatest...all three years had at least 5" on the ground Christmas morning and snow falling after dark Christmas eve...

 

[uncle W]

13 hours ago, Isotherm said:

NYC or BOS?

Boston...further checking shows 2008 with a real white Christmas...It looks like at least 10" on the ground with freezing rain Christmas am...

[powderfreak]

Obviously my best Christmas was the two feet that fell on 12/25 2002 near Albany.  I think the airport technically had 18" on the 25th and a few more after midnight on the 26th...but I remember shoveling in 3-5"/hr rates that evening as the deform band moved through.  

-------------------------------

"While snow began to fall somewhat lightly Christmas morning in eastern New York and western New England, the storm picked up in strength throughout the day according to the NWS. By the end of the event, Albany, New York, received more than 24 inches of snow. With most of the snow falling in a 12-hour period, the storm is widely remembered for its quick and disruptive nature.

In New York City, residents and tourists also faced messy conditions. Up to 5 inches of snow was recorded within Manhattan."

The Pivot Point.

[uncle W]

years with snow on the Ground Christmas morning since 1945 in Boston...

year....snowdepth...max temp...

1945..........6"..........39

1947..........6"..........28

1948..........1"..........21

1954..........2"..........32

1956..........T...........44

1959..........T...........38

1960..........2"..........43

1961..........8"..........35

1962..........T...........33

1963..........5"..........38

1966..........5"..........33

1967..........3"..........39

1969..........T...........27

1970..........6"..........28

1972..........T...........40

1974..........3"..........37

1975........10"..........29

1980..........1"..........35 -7min

1981..........T...........38

1983..........T...........10

1989..........T...........27

1993..........T...........38

1995........11"..........37

1997..........T...........42

1998..........T...........33

2008........10"..........33

2009..........5"..........37

2010..........1"..........31

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

On 8/5/2017 at 8:55 PM, uncle W said:

years with snow on the Ground Christmas morning since 1945 in Boston...

year....snowdepth...max temp...

1945..........6"..........39

1947..........6"..........28

1948..........1"..........21

1954..........2"..........32

1956..........T...........44

1959..........T...........38

1960..........2"..........43

1961..........8"..........35

1962..........T...........33

1963..........5"..........38

1966..........5"..........33

1967..........3"..........39

1969..........T...........27

1970..........6"..........28

1972..........T...........40

1974..........3"..........37

1975........10"..........29

1980..........1"..........35 -7min

1981..........T...........38

1983..........T...........10

1989..........T...........27

1993..........T...........38

1995........11"..........37

1997..........T...........42

1998..........T...........33

2008........10"..........33

2009..........5"..........37

2010..........1"..........31

Current stretch appears to be the second longest without snow OTG in that timeframe 

[CoastalWx]

Christmas 08 seems too high. I'm almost 100% positive there was not 10". It was a sloppy few inches as we torched and it was going quick. Also nowdata has no report of snow on the ground.

[Ginx snewx]

2009 was pretty good, lol 21% of my Christmas days have averaged over 50. the grinch is real, statistical anomaly on the 24th and 25th

 

Snowfall

Maximum Average Minimum

5.4. 0.4 0.0

Percent of Years

>=0.1 inch>=1.0 inch>=3.0 inches>=6.0 inches

19% 9% 7% 0

Snow Depth

Maximum Average Minimum

12 2.0  0

Percent of Years

>=1 inch>=3 inches>=6 inches>=12 inches

53% 33% 14% 2%

[eyewall]

On 8/5/2017 at 1:26 PM, powderfreak said:

Obviously my best Christmas was the two feet that fell on 12/25 2002 near Albany.  I think the airport technically had 18" on the 25th and a few more after midnight on the 26th...but I remember shoveling in 3-5"/hr rates that evening as the deform band moved through.  

-------------------------------

"While snow began to fall somewhat lightly Christmas morning in eastern New York and western New England, the storm picked up in strength throughout the day according to the NWS. By the end of the event, Albany, New York, received more than 24 inches of snow. With most of the snow falling in a 12-hour period, the storm is widely remembered for its quick and disruptive nature.

In New York City, residents and tourists also faced messy conditions. Up to 5 inches of snow was recorded within Manhattan."

The Pivot Point.

The 5 inches per hour I saw in the Pi Day Storm will stay with me always for sure. 

[uncle W]

white Christmas's for NYC and Boston since 1945...

Boston..................NYC.........................

year....snowdepth...

1945..........6"..........7"

1947..........6"..........1"

1948..........1"..........5"

1954..........2"..........0

1955..........0...........T

1956..........T...........0

1959..........T...........4"

1960..........2"..........1"

1961..........8"..........6"

1962..........T...........T

1963..........5"..........5"

1966..........5"..........7"

1967..........3"..........T

1969..........T...........T

1970..........6"..........T

1972..........T...........0

1974..........3"..........T

1975........10"..........T

1980..........1"..........T

1981..........T...........0

1983..........T...........1"

1989..........T...........0

1993..........T...........T

1995........11"..........4"

1997..........T...........0

1998..........T...........1"

2002..........0...........T

2008........10"..........0

2009..........5"..........2"

2010..........1"..........0

[Isotherm]

Saw the Euro seasonal today. Wish we could lock that in right now; it's ideal, and it has the type of winter I've been craving for awhile - namely one which maximizes the low sun angle period. Jumps into winter in November with a trough in the East, +PNA/-EPO across the West connecting with a robust -NAO/AO. That pattern continues through December, and looks like it reaches a climax in January with the deep trough and above normal precipitation. It then breaks down with a more furnace type look by February. I've always preferred to flush Feb/Mar down the toilet if we hit hard from Thanksgiving through Feb 1, much like 2010-11. Winters that go wire to wire from Nov-April, ala 1995-96, are extremely rare.

 

Do I believe it? Well, there are reasons to doubt it, but for now, we're in the classic "optimistic" part of the pre-season (in which we fantasize about a blockbuster winter before reality starts to take hold - hopefully not).

[Rtd208]

11 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Saw the Euro seasonal today. Wish we could lock that in right now; it's ideal, and it has the type of winter I've been craving for awhile - namely one which maximizes the low sun angle period. Jumps into winter in November with a trough in the East, +PNA/-EPO across the West connecting with a robust -NAO/AO. That pattern continues through December, and looks like it reaches a climax in January with the deep trough and above normal precipitation. It then breaks down with a more furnace type look by February. I've always preferred to flush Feb/Mar down the toilet if we hit hard from Thanksgiving through Feb 1, much like 2010-11. Winters that go wire to wire from Nov-April, ala 1995-96, are extremely rare.

 

Do I believe it? Well, there are reasons to doubt it, but for now, we're in the classic "optimistic" part of the pre-season (in which we fantasize about a blockbuster winter before reality starts to take hold - hopefully not).

If only, if we could hit winter hard from around Thanksgiving thru the first 10 days of February then shut it off for the season I would be a very happy camper.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

If only, if we could hit winter hard from around Thanksgiving thru the first 10 days of February then shut it off for the season I would be a very happy camper.

I think most people would agree. Give me the snow for the holidays and when it'll stick around best

[J.Spin]

On ‎8‎/‎5‎/‎2017 at 0:16 PM, powderfreak said:

Yeah I don't really remember earlier that DEC which must mean it sucked or wasn't memorable, lol.  I just know that is like the only Christmas time in a while with a legit snowy week all of the holiday period for skiers and riders.

 

PF, I checked the archives to see what happened around here ahead of December 21^st, 2012 (the point at which we went into a blitz of awesomeness).

 

In October, we actually had five distinct snow events as far as I can tell.  The first was on October 8^th, the next was on October 11^th, and the third one was on October 12^th.  That third one was the most potent in terms of temperatures, but it still doesn’t look like any of them offered much with respect to turns.  I didn’t document the final two events to any great degree, aside from mentioning them in my November 2^nd post about the first snow of that month, so the last couple of events must have been pretty marginal.

 

November had at least a couple periods of note.  The first was at the beginning of the month, with what looks like accumulations up to around a half foot or so by the 4^th.  It certainly appears as though the best skiing of the month was right at the end – Mansfield picked up 12-18” on November 30^th for some great turns, and then the good skiing carried right over to the 1^st of December.  Those were actually a great couple of days on the hill:

 

 

 

 

Beyond that though in December 2012, it looks like the fact that you don’t recall anything notable was correct.  My December archives don’t have anything of note until the 21^st, at which point it was just day after day after day of top notch skiing right into the new year.  I had nine outings from the 21^st through the 31^st, a period that even includes being away a bit for the holiday, so it was definitely an awesome holiday period.  Looking at my photos, I see that somehow we even managed some sun in there among all the snow:

 

[ORH_wxman]

Winters that start around thanksgiving are pretty rare outside of the NNE mountains and higher latitudes...maybe like where tamarack is up into central/northern Maine. 

We do occasionally get them. 1989, 1995, 1996, 2002, 2005. But mostly it's a teaser (like 2014 and 2012) and then back to a mild spell as the last gasp of autumn tries to intrude. 

There is definitely something really fun about snow for the holidays and the lowest sun angle. We're kind of due for a pristine holiday stretch so hopefully this is the year. 

[nzucker]

9 hours ago, Isotherm said:

Saw the Euro seasonal today. Wish we could lock that in right now; it's ideal, and it has the type of winter I've been craving for awhile - namely one which maximizes the low sun angle period. Jumps into winter in November with a trough in the East, +PNA/-EPO across the West connecting with a robust -NAO/AO. That pattern continues through December, and looks like it reaches a climax in January with the deep trough and above normal precipitation. It then breaks down with a more furnace type look by February. I've always preferred to flush Feb/Mar down the toilet if we hit hard from Thanksgiving through Feb 1, much like 2010-11. Winters that go wire to wire from Nov-April, ala 1995-96, are extremely rare.

 

Do I believe it? Well, there are reasons to doubt it, but for now, we're in the classic "optimistic" part of the pre-season (in which we fantasize about a blockbuster winter before reality starts to take hold - hopefully not).

Yea 2010-11 is still my favorite winter...had 70" in Dobbs Ferry. (I was a little too young to remember 95-96 well except the blizzard). But with the cold in December (-4.5F), the epic snow blitz from 12/26-1/27, and the ice storm 2/2-2/3, 10-11 was a classic front-ended winter. Had 13" Boxing Day, 14" 1/12, 13" 1/27...then half an inch of ice in early February. Snowpack was a crusty, glistening 25" by 2/3. Six snow days in that stretch. In Central Park, 10-11 had the most consecutive days of snow cover since 47-48.

13-14 rivals 10-11...I was living in Southern Brooklyn at the time and measured 58" including 14" in the VDay storm. Dobbs Ferry had 74". The pack got huge in the 'burbs, close to 30" in spots...the fact that winter didn't start until 1/26 and we were watching a pack rot with March sun though definitely detracted from the overall winter though (despite that everything looked AMAZING mid-February with snowfall after snowfall, could barely see around corners to make turns driving)...same thing last winter, we had 10" on March 14th, but there's not much use to that except melting piles.

To me, the low sun angle of December makes it the ideal month for wintry atmosphere. Throw in the holidays and it's ideal. Snow pack preservation reaches a peak, and average temperatures bottom out, from Christmas to Groundhog's Day. I'd rather push the Euro forecast forward a bit..start that favorable pattern early Dec instead of Nov (avgs still 50s in Nov, climo unfavorable), then rock through the first two weeks of February when Nor'easter season peaks...lots of storms 2/3-2/12. 

[Rtd208]

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Winters that start around thanksgiving are pretty rare outside of the NNE mountains and higher latitudes...maybe like where tamarack is up into central/northern Maine. 

We do occasionally get them. 1989, 1995, 1996, 2002, 2005. But mostly it's a teaser (like 2014 and 2012) and then back to a mild spell as the last gasp of autumn tries to intrude. 

There is definitely something really fun about snow for the holidays and the lowest sun angle. We're kind of due for a pristine holiday stretch so hopefully this is the year. 

I am a big fan of getting snowstorms from about the 2nd week of December thru the 1st week of so of February at least down here. This may sound ridiculous but if we see at least one significant/major snowstorm in the month of December (preferably before Christmas) then it is usually a decent if not great winter in terms of snowfall around these parts, just my opinion.

[Isotherm]

8 hours ago, nzucker said:

Yea 2010-11 is still my favorite winter...had 70" in Dobbs Ferry. (I was a little too young to remember 95-96 well except the blizzard). But with the cold in December (-4.5F), the epic snow blitz from 12/26-1/27, and the ice storm 2/2-2/3, 10-11 was a classic front-ended winter. Had 13" Boxing Day, 14" 1/12, 13" 1/27...then half an inch of ice in early February. Snowpack was a crusty, glistening 25" by 2/3. Six snow days in that stretch. In Central Park, 10-11 had the most consecutive days of snow cover since 47-48.

13-14 rivals 10-11...I was living in Southern Brooklyn at the time and measured 58" including 14" in the VDay storm. Dobbs Ferry had 74". The pack got huge in the 'burbs, close to 30" in spots...the fact that winter didn't start until 1/26 and we were watching a pack rot with March sun though definitely detracted from the overall winter though (despite that everything looked AMAZING mid-February with snowfall after snowfall, could barely see around corners to make turns driving)...same thing last winter, we had 10" on March 14th, but there's not much use to that except melting piles.

To me, the low sun angle of December makes it the ideal month for wintry atmosphere. Throw in the holidays and it's ideal. Snow pack preservation reaches a peak, and average temperatures bottom out, from Christmas to Groundhog's Day. I'd rather push the Euro forecast forward a bit..start that favorable pattern early Dec instead of Nov (avgs still 50s in Nov, climo unfavorable), then rock through the first two weeks of February when Nor'easter season peaks...lots of storms 2/3-2/12. 

 

 

Agreed, 2010-11 is my favorite winter as well given I was too young for 1995-96. 57.7" of snow here with seemingly constant snow events from 12/26-1/27, and snow pack until the third week of February.

I would agree with the above that - outside of an anomalous event in the first half of December - sustained winter, in terms of snow pack preservation, doesn't really begin until post December 15th for us (as the early opportunity). But even then, looking retrospectively through NYC's snow depth records, the week of 12/20 is generally the starting point for snow pack preservation in the great/excellent winters. 

But I would just like to have a colder than normal Thanksgiving-Christmas period even if the snow totals aren't huge; there's something about 60 degrees for weeks in December that's entirely antithetical to the winter feel. If I can't snow, I'd at least rather be 37F and windy with flurries, running up toward the holiday period.

So, definitely agreed that the Euro pushed forward a month would be ideal. The sun angle isn't too much of an issue in terms of preservation until you get into the last 10-15 days or so of February. A winter stretching from approximately mid December through mid February would be perfect (obviously Dec-Mar would be perfect, but maintaining a great pattern for four consecutive months is extremely rare from BOS southward).

[Isotherm]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

I am a big fan of getting snowstorms from about the 2nd week of December thru the 1st week of so of February at least down here. This may sound ridiculous but if we see at least one significant/major snowstorm in the month of December (preferably before Christmas) then it is usually a decent if not great winter in terms of snowfall around these parts, just my opinion.

 

Statistical data corroborates that. Generally above normal snowfall Decembers yield at or above normal seasons for NYC.

[uncle W]

one winter with a snowstorm for Christmas and nothing as big the remainder of the season was in 1961-62...the greatest wintry weather for the two weeks leading up to Christmas day in my lifetime in NYC is 1960...15-20" of snow on the 11th-12th...four days with single digit lows...some other light snows after the big snow...flurries Christmas eve...1" of snow and ice left on the ground Christmas morning...1963 was another great two weeks before Christmas with a 6-7" storm on the 23rd-24th...5" on the ground Christmas morning...coldest week was the week before Christmas...1966 was another good two weeks before Christmas climaxed by a 7" storm Christmas eve...1995 is right up there with the other years...it had 3" on the ground Christmas morning from four storms before Christmas...8" on the 19th-20th lasted on the ground till New Years eve...1960-61, 1963-64, 1966-67 and 1995-96 were classic winters with snow for Christmas and a blizzard later in the winter...

[J.Spin]

On 8/5/2017 at 0:16 PM, powderfreak said:

Yeah I don't really remember earlier that DEC which must mean it sucked or wasn't memorable, lol.  I just know that is like the only Christmas time in a while with a legit snowy week all of the holiday period for skiers and riders.

 

I realized that I didn’t even check my site’s snowfall numbers for that holiday stretch, but they were good as one might expect based on what I found in my trip report archives.  Here at the house we had 42.8” from the 21^st through the 1^st, which is essentially like getting a typical midwinter month packed into just a third of a month.  If snowfall followed the usual trends, the numbers at the local resorts should have been about double that amount, which would have been a pretty nice daily snowfall average during that period.  Holiday skiers and riders surely had lots of smiles.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On ‎8‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 3:45 PM, Isotherm said:

Saw the Euro seasonal today. Wish we could lock that in right now; it's ideal, and it has the type of winter I've been craving for awhile - namely one which maximizes the low sun angle period. Jumps into winter in November with a trough in the East, +PNA/-EPO across the West connecting with a robust -NAO/AO. That pattern continues through December, and looks like it reaches a climax in January with the deep trough and above normal precipitation. It then breaks down with a more furnace type look by February. I've always preferred to flush Feb/Mar down the toilet if we hit hard from Thanksgiving through Feb 1, much like 2010-11. Winters that go wire to wire from Nov-April, ala 1995-96, are extremely rare.

 

Do I believe it? Well, there are reasons to doubt it, but for now, we're in the classic "optimistic" part of the pre-season (in which we fantasize about a blockbuster winter before reality starts to take hold - hopefully not).

My early thoughts are that we should not see another outright hostile Atlantic and polar region, but I'm not buying a big blocker yet, either.

[CoastalWx]

I saw the three month aggregate H5 pattern too. I would take that in a heartbeat. Looks a bit Nino like with low pressure going to Aleutians.