40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/17/2017 at 9:58 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and especially the past 5 years. Not coincidence either that we've gotten some pretty decent cold outbreaks in the past few years. I am hoping that we continue to see the EPO help out this year because I'm not counting on the NAO...though maybe it will surprise. 1995-1996 certainly did....we had gone 8 consecutive winters with a +NAO before '95-'96. Expand I'm about to dig into the some of the intraseasonal variability of the indexes amongst the analog set....especially the NAO. Have you considered utilizing the MEI to distinguish strength of ENSO? I know the sst method can be obnoxious and inconsistent for reasons stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Where are the tabular weekly ENSO readings again...link? Thx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/17/2017 at 10:00 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm about to dig into the some of the intraseasonal variability of the indexes amongst the analog set....especially the NAO. Have you considered utilizing the MEI to distinguish strength of ENSO? I know the sst method can be obnoxious and inconsistent for reasons stated. Expand MEI is definitely a popular method amongst some. I typically just use the trimonthly 3.4 method though. MEI would be an interesting variation though... On 10/17/2017 at 10:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where are the tabular weekly ENSO readings again...link? Thx.. Expand Current version: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Old 1971-2000 link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 On 10/17/2017 at 10:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: MEI is definitely a popular method amongst some. I typically just use the trimonthly 3.4 method though. MEI would be an interesting variation though... Current version: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Old 1971-2000 link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml Expand Thanks. I'm going to try to formulate a solid analog-base by integrating current MEI and ONI readings.....then I'll blog about it. I think a good tactic to take is to eliminate seasons, and narrow the pool, as opposed to playing pin the tail on the weenie to come up with the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2017 Share Posted October 17, 2017 Oh, no..I mean the site that gives all of the current ENSO region anomalies...Steve probably has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 latest -mei value is stronger than all off last years at -0.449...latest weekly oni is 0.0...it could end up a neutral negative oni enso... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/17/2017 at 10:36 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh, no..I mean the site that gives all of the current ENSO region anomalies...Steve probably has it. Expand Niño. Baseline period 1961–1990. Index to 17/9/2017 to 24/9/2017 to 1/10/2017 to 8/10/2017 NINO3 −0.4 °C −0.6 °C −0.3 °C 0.0 °C NINO3.4 −0.3 °C −0.3 °C −0.1 °C 0.0 °C NINO4 +0.1 °C +0.1 °C +0.1 °C +0.2 ° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 I think it's important to look at the overall PAC SSTs and the position of the anomalies. Curious how previous seasons have done with a similar PAC PDO and more central to east based Nina. Might not be a huge sample size though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 12:44 AM, Ginx snewx said: Niño. Baseline period 1961–1990. Index to 17/9/2017 to 24/9/2017 to 1/10/2017 to 8/10/2017 NINO3 −0.4 °C −0.6 °C −0.3 °C 0.0 °C NINO3.4 −0.3 °C −0.3 °C −0.1 °C 0.0 °C NINO4 +0.1 °C +0.1 °C +0.1 °C +0.2 ° Expand Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Source? Expand http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:05 AM, CoastalWx said: I think it's important to look at the overall PAC SSTs and the position of the anomalies. Curious how previous seasons have done with a similar PAC PDO and more central to east based Nina. Might not be a huge sample size though. Expand Man we 70/71 Pac vibe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:20 AM, Ginx snewx said: Man we 70/71 Pac vibe Expand LOL, I dunno. A little early for that....but I am dying for some December fun. Winter starting near GroundHog day is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:22 AM, CoastalWx said: LOL, I dunno. A little early for that....but I am dying for some December fun. Winter starting near GroundHog day is getting old. Expand Was referring to AAM composites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:22 AM, CoastalWx said: LOL, I dunno. A little early for that....but I am dying for some December fun. Winter starting near GroundHog day is getting old. Expand I'd just like a wintry 12/20-12/25 period for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/10/autumn-chill-ensues-as-enso-begins-to.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:51 AM, dendrite said: I'd just like a wintry 12/20-12/25 period for once. Expand I think you will get your wish: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 2:54 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/10/autumn-chill-ensues-as-enso-begins-to.html Expand Nice post. Really like the idea of looking at MEI values. Always look forward to your blog posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 How do you guys think this compares to what has transpired? I wish it were a bit warmer....but not terrible. Has the very positive NAO and Kev's one eyed willie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Def. should have lower heights out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 Anyway, here is Novie..has the Aleutian Low/Nino look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 CPC has 3.4 at -0.5 on their latest weekly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 8:49 AM, OSUmetstud said: CPC has 3.4 at -0.5 on their latest weekly. Expand Yea...there is some variance, depending on where you look. Sources vary, and there has been warming since Monday. The bottom line is that there is some warming ongoing and climo is strongly in favor of a weak la Nina. I think -.03 is closer in real time. Thanks, Nick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 4:08 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyway, here is Novie..has the Aleutian Low/Nino look: Expand Nice On 10/18/2017 at 12:11 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea...there is some variance, depending on where you look. Sources vary, and there has been warming since Monday. The bottom line is that there is some warming ongoing and climo is strongly in favor to a weak la Nina. I think -.03 is closer in real time. Thanks, Nick. Expand stick with the Aussies and you are welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 12:20 PM, Ginx snewx said: Nice stick with the Aussies and you are welcome Expand why are the aussies better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 12:51 PM, OSUmetstud said: why are the aussies better? Expand Better accents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:07 PM, Ginx snewx said: Better accents Expand ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 12:20 PM, Ginx snewx said: Nice stick with the Aussies and you are welcome Expand Sorry...thought I had responded. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sorry...thought I had responded. Thanks. Expand Just bustin, Aussie Aussie Aussie, found they are quicker updating and their website is much much more user friendly, plus that accent, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 On 10/18/2017 at 1:07 PM, Ginx snewx said: Better accents Expand Oye! Oye! Oye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 18, 2017 Share Posted October 18, 2017 only positive amo. subdivided further: -pdo +pdo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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