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Countdown to Winter 2017-2018 Thread

eyewall

By eyewall,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 10/13/2017 at 3:32 PM, LoveSN+ said:

I can imagine after a few drinks and a storm on the line, things could get pretty noisy. :lol:

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We basically got kicked out of JJ Foley's in 2009 because of that...though they were actually quite polite about it and didn't actually kick us out of the whole place...they simply said "perhaps you gentlemen would find accommodations more comfortable in our back room bar".....or something like that, lol.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 10/13/2017 at 3:36 PM, weathafella said:

We were tossed from the main room at JJ Foley's in the South End as a storm was bearing down on us in 2009.  Screaming at Barry Burbank (local ocmw) did the trick.

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We all watched the NAM come in after that from the back room area....got loud again when it dumped 17 inches on us...of course, it ended up being bloated in classic NAM fashion (think most of us got around 9-12" in that). Definitely one of the funnier GTGs.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
  On 10/13/2017 at 3:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

We all watched the NAM come in after that from the back room area....got loud again when it dumped 17 inches on us...of course, it ended up being bloated in classic NAM fashion (think most of us got around 9-12" in that). Definitely one of the funnier GTGs.

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And Burbank called 2-4 with a changeover as I remember.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 10/13/2017 at 3:38 PM, LoveSN+ said:

There's nothing I love more than weenie-ing out over weather, especially winter weather, but Boston is quite the hike from Albany and I will be home for winter break. I'm sure it's a blast though.

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We have them in ORH (Worcester, MA) from time to time too...that's a little easier from ALB...prob more like 100 minutes if highways are smooth sailing. I used to make the trip through ALB on the way to Cornell from ORH many a time back in college.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

the more think about this winter and the leading known large scale signaling the more I think it's stunning candidate for a whopper N/S... 

that means No Skill in predictive parlance.   In my mind it could break either way ... really, with 50/50 odds.  Not sure what the consensus is here, or elsewhere but I'm not sensing or analyzing much more than noise. 

Neutral cool ENSO is in the climate window of variability ...that's A

B, Global Warming pretty much dictates that in the absence of a compensating forcing, the base-line tendency will average decimal points above the previous 30 to 50 year mean.  That's just logic... If the slope is positive, those numbers have to be coming from SOMEwhere. 

C, that SOMEwhere has not always been New England.. As I've pointed out numerous ignored times ... one of the only cool off-set nodes over the planetary medium has been persistently over eastern Canada for months on end ...wobbling around there but never far from home.  We've had above normal months, many of them. It's just that ours come in last most of the time..  Anyway, that may help the winter enthusiasts cause, ...a little, but, in the absence of an obvious countermanding signal it's likely to still be abv the normal somehow... some way. 

Lastly, the AO and the shared domain spaces of the EPO and NAO ... they are hypothetically if not theoretically supposed to be entering a multi-decadal negative tendency. WHEN exactly that stops f'n around and actually happens, time will tell...or maybe it has and we're just greedy?  I dunno.. but, as NCEP has dully noted in their seasonal outlooks more in recent years/autumns, regions from the Lake to OV and NE have increased potential of countermanding a warm signal due to the poorly understood and/or predictive skill involved with the polarward mass-field indexes. 

Put A, B, C, and I guess D in a crucible, it melts down to "Pingggg ... heads or tails"

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
  On 10/13/2017 at 8:01 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

the more think about this winter and the leading known large scale signaling the more I think it's stunning candidate for a whopper N/S... 

that means No Skill in predictive parlance.   In my mind it could break either way ... really, with 50/50 odds.  Not sure what the consensus is here, or elsewhere but I'm not sensing or analyzing much more than noise. 

Neutral cool ENSO is in the climate window of variability ...that's A

B, Global Warming pretty much dictates that in the absence of a compensating forcing, the base-line tendency will average decimal points above the previous 30 to 50 year mean.  That's just logic... If the slope is positive, those numbers have to be coming from SOMEwhere. 

C, that SOMEwhere has not always been New England.. As I've pointed out numerous ignored times ... one of the only cool off-set nodes over the planetary medium has been persistently over eastern Canada for months on end ...wobbling around there but never far from home.  We've had above normal months, many of them. It's just that ours come in last most of the time..  Anyway, that may help the winter enthusiasts cause, ...a little, but, in the absence of an obvious countermanding signal it's likely to still be abv the normal somehow... some way. 

Lastly, the AO and the shared domain spaces of the EPO and NAO ... they are hypothetically if not theoretically supposed to be entering a multi-decadal negative tendency. WHEN exactly that stops f'n around and actually happens, time will tell...or maybe it has and we're just greedy?  I dunno.. but, as NCEP has dully noted in their seasonal outlooks more in recent years/autumns, regions from the Lake to OV and NE have increased potential of countermanding a warm signal due to the poorly understood and/or predictive skill involved with the polarward mass-field indexes. 

Put A, B, C, and I guess D in a crucible, it melts down to "Pingggg ... heads or tails"

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Thanks, Al.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
  On 10/15/2017 at 9:14 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I see the teleconnections favor a positive PNA for most of this end of month period, with a transitioning NAO and an eventual Negative phase of the AO as the polar vortex comes on our side of the North Pole region.

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In other news it's 2 weeks closer to winter.  150 inches for Harwich?  145 for Hyannis, 70 for Boston, 32 for Worcester? Nothing for NNE?  Admit it, that's your call.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 10/15/2017 at 9:14 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I see the teleconnections favor a positive PNA for most of this end of month period, with a transitioning NAO and an eventual Negative phase of the AO as the polar vortex comes on our side of the North Pole region.

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Be careful throwing “teleconnections” out like the atmosphere must follow some rule and lock it into place. 

I see a lot of moving parts at h5 and nothing that looks sustained or “by the book”. NAO is transient at best, any pna ridging gets shuffled around a bit. At least the AK vortex looks gone end of the month though into early Nov, hopefully that stays that way....we’ll figure the rest out when we get there. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 10/16/2017 at 12:51 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Be careful throwing “teleconnections” out like the atmosphere must follow some rule and lock it into place. 

I see a lot of moving parts at h5 and nothing that looks sustained or “by the book”. NAO is transient at best, any pna ridging gets shuffled around a bit. At least the AK vortex looks gone end of the month though into early Nov, hopefully that stays that way....we’ll figure the rest out when we get there. 

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There is no blocking. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 10/16/2017 at 12:53 PM, CoastalWx said:

There is no blocking. 

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Right, theres a two day ridging period that chugs along. I mean if you a took a snapshot at h5 of those days one could get there “oh look positive heights over Greenland thats blocking” panties in a bunch....but it does nothing. 

I guess it’s not even transient though, I see your point.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 10/16/2017 at 1:13 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right, theres a two day ridging period that chugs along. I mean if you a took a snapshot at h5 of those days one could get there “oh look positive heights over Greenland thats blocking” panties in a bunch....but it does nothing. 

I guess it’s not even transient though, I see your point.

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  On 10/16/2017 at 1:15 PM, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah it's just ridging.  U can see it pretty plainly on the 500mb charts later this month. 

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Yeah just some ridging there...but I definitely would not call it blocking. I'm not really on the blocking train yet. 

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