OceanStWx Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 On 10/11/2017 at 4:13 PM, dryslot said: A lot of SWFE events that winter contributed to those totals. Expand 15 winter storm watches issued by GYX that season. That's tied tops as far as I can see going back to 2004 (also 2014-2015). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 On 10/11/2017 at 7:50 PM, OceanStWx said: 15 winter storm watches issued by GYX that season. That's tied tops as far as I can see going back to 2004 (also 2014-2015). Expand No surprise, Looks like 9 would have verified, We ended up with 30 events that winter here in LEW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 On 10/11/2017 at 7:52 PM, dryslot said: No surprise, Looks like 9 would have verified, We ended up with 30 events that winter here in LEW. Expand I'm sure no one county/zone got into all those watches, but if they did hitting every watch at the minimum would be 90". It's supposed to be a 50% confidence product, but you would like to hit more than you don't, say 75%. That's still a nearly 70" floor. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 On 10/11/2017 at 8:09 PM, OceanStWx said: I'm sure no one county/zone got into all those watches, but if they did hitting every watch at the minimum would be 90". It's supposed to be a 50% confidence product, but you would like to hit more than you don't, say 75%. That's still a nearly 70" floor. Not bad.That would place here at avg and the WFO has to be close to that as well, Would take that in any season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Those -SST anomalies in the east are sill important. If you have water that isn't cold relative to normal, you could allow for MJO propagation eastward from the IO and maritime continent. If I saw cold water pretty far west, that tells me forcing maybe farther west which increases chances of larger AK Troughing. If anything, I'm looking harder to find the negatives vs the positives...at least for here in New England. Other than the 11-15 day ensemble ( I say that jokingly), is there anything pointing to a dud snowfall wise? Temps are more difficult so I'm not even going to entertain that. Everyone cares about snow, and I dunno...maybe I'm a weenie...but I don't see a huge caution flag....and lord knows I like my caution flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 It’s pretty much everyone vs DIT/Timmy combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/11/2017 at 11:38 PM, CoastalWx said: Those -SST anomalies in the east are sill important. If you have water that isn't cold relative to normal, you could allow for MJO propagation eastward from the IO and maritime continent. If I saw cold water pretty far west, that tells me forcing maybe farther west which increases chances of larger AK Troughing. If anything, I'm looking harder to find the negatives vs the positives...at least for here in New England. Other than the 11-15 day ensemble ( I say that jokingly), is there anything pointing to a dud snowfall wise? Temps are more difficult so I'm not even going to entertain that. Everyone cares about snow, and I dunno...maybe I'm a weenie...but I don't see a huge caution flag....and lord knows I like my caution flags. Expand True story, this is an image of you waving James off of landing on the January blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 12:04 AM, OceanStWx said: True story, this is an image of you waving James off of landing on the January blizzard. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/11/2017 at 11:38 PM, CoastalWx said: Those -SST anomalies in the east are sill important. If you have water that isn't cold relative to normal, you could allow for MJO propagation eastward from the IO and maritime continent. If I saw cold water pretty far west, that tells me forcing maybe farther west which increases chances of larger AK Troughing. If anything, I'm looking harder to find the negatives vs the positives...at least for here in New England. Other than the 11-15 day ensemble ( I say that jokingly), is there anything pointing to a dud snowfall wise? Temps are more difficult so I'm not even going to entertain that. Everyone cares about snow, and I dunno...maybe I'm a weenie...but I don't see a huge caution flag....and lord knows I like my caution flags. Expand Yeah it should be noted that 2007-2008 was slightly above normal temps for us (and NNE) despite big snowfall. December was cold but Jan/Feb were not. So sometimes it isn't all about temps even though they are still important. South of our latitude they become more and more dominant as the predictor of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/11/2017 at 11:52 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s pretty much everyone vs a DIT/Timmy combo. Expand I don't think anyone, but DIT said ratter. I'm acknowledging all possibilities as is normally the case with winter. The SE ridge certainly could flex and screw us all. But as of now...I am trying to find glaring reasons why winter will suck...and I don't see anything glaring at the moment. Whether or not some so called snow boundary will be over HFD OR TTN is absolutely impossible to answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 12:35 AM, CoastalWx said: I don't think anyone, but DIT said ratter. I'm acknowledging all possibilities as is normally the case with winter. The SE ridge certainly could flex and screw us all. But as of now...I am trying to find glaring reasons why winter will suck...and I don't see anything glaring at the moment. Whether or not some so called snow boundary will be over HFD OR TTN is absolutely impossible to answer. Expand Yeah....There's already an inherent snow gradient built into climo anyway during La Niña because of the lack of a southern stream and propensity for SE ridge....but whether it's a prolific boundary between haves and have nots seems to depend on avoiding the death vortex in Alaska. If it's there, we all suck like 2011/2012. If it isn't, then someone probably cleans up while not too far south gets porked. We want Canada to have some cold. That's a key. The death vortex typically just furnaces the entire continent south of a Yukon-Baffin island line. And as you said, we don't know if the gradient sets up over the pike or over NJ yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 12:40 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah....There's already an inherent snow gradient built into climo anyway during La Niña because of the lack of a southern stream and propensity for SE ridge....but whether it's a prolific boundary between haves and have nots seems to depend on avoiding the death vortex in Alaska. If it's there, we all suck like 2011/2012. If it isn't, then someone probably cleans up while not too far south gets porked. We want Canada to have some cold. That's a key. The death vortex typically just furnaces the entire continent south of a Yukon-Baffin island line. And as you said, we don't know if the gradient sets up over the pike or over NJ yet. Expand I'll take my 6" while Kevin's Dodge Ram gets sandblasted down to the frame by sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 12:40 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah....There's already an inherent snow gradient built into climo anyway during La Niña because of the lack of a southern stream and propensity for SE ridge....but whether it's a prolific boundary between haves and have nots seems to depend on avoiding the death vortex in Alaska. If it's there, we all suck like 2011/2012. If it isn't, then someone probably cleans up while not too far south gets porked. We want Canada to have some cold. That's a key. The death vortex typically just furnaces the entire continent south of a Yukon-Baffin island line. And as you said, we don't know if the gradient sets up over the pike or over NJ yet. Expand I don't like to be a debbie downer but isn't the 10-15 day Euro usually always right?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 12:59 AM, leo2000 said: I don't like to be a debbie downer but isn't the 10-15 day Euro usually always right?. Expand 100/100 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 12:59 AM, leo2000 said: I don't like to be a debbie downer but isn't the 10-15 day Euro usually always right?. Expand What are you trying to say by this? The Euro ensemble in the 10-15 has the GOA vortex breaking down and troughing beginning to result in the middle US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 1:01 AM, CoastalWx said: 100/100 times. Expand Haha, I know it's sometimes wrong but it's accuracy is really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 1:03 AM, LoveSN+ said: What are you trying to say by this? The Euro ensemble in the 10-15 has the GOA vortex breaking down and troughing beginning to result in the middle US. Expand But isn't it hard to break down a GOA Vortex?. They usually have a lot of staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 1:01 AM, CoastalWx said: 100/100 times. Expand Louis just left the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 1:05 AM, leo2000 said: But isn't it hard to break down a GOA Vortex?. They usually have a lot of staying power. Expand No different than any other H5 pattern. I think the fear of some sort of vortex there causes some false thinking. And no, the 11-15 day euro ensemble isn't always correct. I can recall many times where it showed some sort of large scale hemispheric pattern...only to be completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 1:06 AM, OceanStWx said: Louis just left the board. Expand And Cliff Mass just posted a blog about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 1:05 AM, leo2000 said: But isn't it hard to break down a GOA Vortex?. They usually have a lot of staying power. Expand I wouldn't worry about it yet. It's shown up many times in October only to disappear when we get into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 As many have said, we shouldn't get worried about a black hole in the GOA unless it sticks around through most of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 Winters coming, leo is in the mutufukkin house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 2:16 AM, weathafella said: Winters coming, leo is in the mutufukkin house. Expand You call for leo every season lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 1:09 AM, ORH_wxman said: I wouldn't worry about it yet. It's shown up many times in October only to disappear when we get into winter. Expand I'd be more worried if it had set up in Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 2:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You call for leo every season lol Expand Whoosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 2:28 AM, weathafella said: Whoosh Expand I guess so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 2:30 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess so. Expand You have no idea how off you are....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 2:30 AM, weathafella said: You have no idea how off you are....lol. Expand Well, you are obsessed with that season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 On 10/12/2017 at 2:31 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, you are obsessed with that season.. Expand He is talking about the poster leo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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