eyewall Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Since the pattern isn't offering much hope and it is likely the 2nd consecutive failed winter for the Champlain and Hudson Valleys and Southern New England has been skunked, it is time to regretfully pull the trigger on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 um no u have another 40 days till this winter is over so take it easy and be happy still plenty of time to get hit with a blizzard. February and March are known for big storms. I would honestly watch the February 15-25th timeframe for a big blizzard in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Man you're going off the deep end...come back don't jump off the Barre Granite Quarry! I get the frustration but there are like 75 days left this season where climatology says it can snow and snow big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 34 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Man you're going off the deep end...come back don't jump off the Barre Granite Quarry! I get the frustration but there are like 75 days left this season where climatology says it can snow and snow big. Just rode by the quarries on my sled, the snow would cushion his fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 5, 2017 Author Share Posted February 5, 2017 I am hoping this will change the mojo and make me eat crow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Reminder that here in the lower Champlain Valley, the total March and April snowfall from 2014-2016 is 11.3 inches. Total. That's six 'winter' months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/4/2017 at 7:03 PM, eyewall said: I am hoping this will change the mojo and make me eat crow It did, congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 It did, congrats. Well until this past week Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I'm pretty optimistic for next year...very early conjecture is for declining solar influence due to approaching solar min, easterly QBO, and warm-neutral to weak el nino ENSO. Not a bad start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 On 2/4/2017 at 3:18 PM, eyewall said: Since the pattern isn't offering much hope and it is likely the 2nd consecutive failed winter for the Champlain and Hudson Valleys and Southern New England has been skunked, it is time to regretfully pull the trigger on this thread. Hudson Valley had a decent year, much much much better than last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm pretty optimistic for next year...very early conjecture is for declining solar influence due to approaching solar min, easterly QBO, and warm-neutral to weak el nino ENSO. Not a bad start... Nah, 2018/2019 will be the winter to end all winters. I'm looking forward to that period most of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Nah, 2018/2019 will be the winter to end all winters. I'm looking forward to that period most of all. I don't see anything wrong with next winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm pretty optimistic for next year...very early conjecture is for declining solar influence due to approaching solar min, easterly QBO, and warm-neutral to weak el nino ENSO. Not a bad start... I'm thinking Nino may get stronger than that. Region 1-2 are on fire and I wonder if we see a potent Nino. I know it's early...but just talking out loud here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'm thinking Nino may get stronger than that. Region 1-2 are on fire and I wonder if we see a potent Nino. I know it's early...but just talking out loud here. I just looked at early guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Looks more like weak-moderate el nino now........I'll bet against another strong so soon. If we can avoid this being east based, I'll go pretty hefty on snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 On 3/24/2017 at 10:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks more like weak-moderate el nino now........I'll bet against another strong so soon. If we can avoid this being east based, I'll go pretty hefty on snowfall. I just hope the -qbo can pull through this year. I doubt it could can be in its westerly phase for 3 winters in a row. In terms of solar, Just this month the sun reported no sunspots for 2 weeks straight. Maybe starting to bottom out? In tandem with a -qbo would be great. I also think if we get a modoki weak to moderate El Niño, next winter will be very special in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 On 2/4/2017 at 3:18 PM, eyewall said: Since the pattern isn't offering much hope and it is likely the 2nd consecutive failed winter for the Champlain and Hudson Valleys and Southern New England has been skunked, it is time to regretfully pull the trigger on this thread. Lol phail mcphail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 Lol phail mcphailReverse psychology worked! Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Just now, eyewall said: Reverse psychology worked! Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Lol and you are not done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol phail mcphail Haha Thy of no hope has doth enjoyed 90"+ inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 Haha Thy of no hope has doth enjoyed 90"+ inches of snow.And the highest amount of snow I have ever seen in a single event.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 5 hours ago, eyewall said: And the highest amount of snow I have ever seen in a single event. Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk I'd like to see whatever we have coming up for later this week trend in the direction of giving BTV the 7" or so they need to hit 100" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Weak to moderate el nino.....though it has been trending stronger. Negative QBO Near solar minimum. I like next winter better than I did this season...which has ended up pretty close to normal, as anticipated. Main caveats for 2017-2018 being strength and configuration of el nino, as it is trending stronger on guidance and has been focused in region 1.2 at this very early juncture. I am hedging against a strong event, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Gonna start to string some thoughts together, as the pieces for the next season are always coming together before the last one ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Gonna start to strong some thoughts together, has the pieces for the next season are always coming together before the last one ends. Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 Mike V also is not on the moderate or strong nino train. Him and I had a good discussion about that. He brings up some decent points about the behavior of that EPAC warm pool (which appears to been due to MJO wave passage) and other metrics that suggest pumping the brakes on a potent Nino. It's early and the error bars this time of year are high in the Spring..but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 12, 2017 Share Posted April 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Mike V also is not on the moderate or strong nino train. Him and I had a good discussion about that. He brings up some decent points about the behavior of that EPAC warm pool (which appears to been due to MJO wave passage) and other metrics that suggest pumping the brakes on a potent Nino. It's early and the error bars this time of year are high in the Spring..but just saying. We'll take a weak Nino...about as close to a lock for cold and snow in our area as you can get using only ENSO metrics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 My thoughts remain unchanged. Weak to low-end moderate el nino...at best.....guidance beginning to stabilize. I mentioned back in like January....due to historical precedent, or lack thereof, I would strongly bet against a high-end el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/12/2017 at 1:39 PM, CoastalWx said: Mike V also is not on the moderate or strong nino train. Him and I had a good discussion about that. He brings up some decent points about the behavior of that EPAC warm pool (which appears to been due to MJO wave passage) and other metrics that suggest pumping the brakes on a potent Nino. It's early and the error bars this time of year are high in the Spring..but just saying. I'm pretty confident, Scott....I like next season given ENSO considerations, and potentially the year after with solar minimum fast encroaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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