The Seasonal Snowfall Futility Markers

[North Balti Zen]

The @RodneyS, @MN Transplant, and @PrinceFrederickWx notes from previous page really capture the run of snow futility we have been on.

[North Balti Zen]

And...still in the game for this thread. Sadly. 

[North Balti Zen]

Current as of 1/26/21:

BWI: 2.1" (Would be new 5th place if no more snow falls)

DCA: 0.3" (3rd place worst if no more snow falls)

IAD: 2.6" (currently tied for second worst if no more snow falls)

The futility list:

Quote

 

BWI:

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

1.8 - 2019/20

2.3 - 2001/02

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

.6 - 2019/20

2.0 - 2011/12

2.2 - '75/'76

Dulles:

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

2.9 - 2019/20

3.7 - 2011/12

4.4 - '80/'81

 

 

[North Balti Zen]

As of 2/3/21:

BWI: 6.0"

DCA: 2.8"

IAD: 8.1"

 

And with that, we are safe to let this thread fall away until January 2022. Whatever else happens, this will not be a top five futility year. 

[WxUSAF]

Think DCA is 3.5” now? 

[mattie g]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Think DCA is 3.5” now? 

DCA killin' it.

[North Balti Zen]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Think DCA is 3.5” now? 

Could be. I just copied that from the contest thread. In any event, once DCA crossed the 2.3" threshold, this thread drifts away...

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

Could be. I just copied that from the contest thread. In any event, once DCA crossed the 2.3" threshold, this thread drifts away...

These are the updated numbers:

BWI: 6.1"

DCA: 3.5"

IAD: 8.3"

5-year futility is still on the table at BWI, IAD and DCA

[KingJWx]

IAD's lowest snowfall across 2 consecutive winters is 14.5" from 07-08 and 08-09. A new futility record is still on the table.

19-20: 2.9

20-21: 10.6 (so far)

[Cobalt]

On 2/13/2021 at 1:38 PM, KingJWx said:

IAD's lowest snowfall across 2 consecutive winters is 14.5" from 07-08 and 08-09. A new futility record is still on the table.

19-20: 2.9

20-21: 10.6 (so far)

Adding to this, I've been keeping track of cumulative totals for the three main airports (mainly because I feel like the three in total are pretty representative of the urban corridor for the majority of the subforum), and we're certainly still in the running for overall futility for two consecutive winters in the IAD snowfall era.

Cumulative totals from 19/20 and 20/21 at the three airports: DCA 5.1", BWI 10.8", IAD 13.5" = 29.4" Cumulative total. This would just narrowly beat the consecutive winters of 11/12 and 12/13 where the cumulative total there was just 31.1" total. Honorable mentions would be 2000/01 and 01/02 with a cumulative total of just 37.1", and more recently 2016-17/17-18 where the cumulative total there was 48.8". We're truly entering the period of snowfall booms or horrendous snowfall busts for winters, with not much room in between. On the other side of that coin, the 3 winter stretch of 13/14 through 15/16 was the snowiest three year stretch cumulatively for all 3 airports in the IAD era. In that same era you can group 09/10 with any other winter for all three airports and it will still end up as the snowiest two year stretch for all three airports combined.. so that's fun lol. 

 

Edit as of 2/18/21: DCA = 5.9", BWI = 11.8", IAD = 14.7 = 32.4" Cumulative total (over the past two years). This narrowly edges out 11/12 and 12/13's two year cumulative total of 31.1". The past two years are no longer the least snowiest such stretch for the airports combined in the IAD measurement era. As for @KingJWx mentioning IAD's consecutive snow minimum, they have eeked out 0.2" more than that stretch. Fun times we're in!

[RodneyS]

On 1/13/2021 at 10:29 PM, RodneyS said:

The 5-year minimum DC snow total was set during the 1997-98 through 2001-02 snow seasons at 37.7 inches.  The last four snow seasons at DCA have totaled 28.7 inches, and so 8.9 inches or fewer this season would break that record.  The minimum two-season DC snow total was set during the 2011-12 through 2012-13 snow seasons at 5.1 inches.  So, with last season's 0.6 inch total at DCA, 4.4 inches this season would break that record. 

So, with this year's 5.4 inches at DCA, we broke the 5-year minimum DC snow total by 3.6 inches, as the last five snow seasons at DCA have totaled just 34.1 inches, vs 37.7 during 1997-2002. However, we exceeded the 2-year minimum DC snow total by 0.9 inches, as the last two snow seasons at DCA have totaled 6.0 inches, vs 5.1 during 2011-2013.

[North Balti Zen]

Upon EJ/Ji with their annual invocation of a repeat of a 2001/02 winter concern I am summoned to the depths of no winter hell to bump this thread. Long live the futility chase.

[Jebman]

The futility chase is officially canceled.

Because the Washington Metropolitan Region is gonna have a surprise very snowy very cold winter in 2021-2022!

[arlwx]

Once again, I expect the Mid-Atlantic snow lovers to hate everything until MLK day.

Wait until Febrrary.

And then March, when you can get our withered corpses out of the house...

I am a warminsta, but I'm hoping for a below-normal snowfall (at least at DCA, the rest of you can cash in).

[North Balti Zen]

Popping back in to do some dusting, set out a cheese plate or two. Game on. 

[Amped]

Don't worry we'll get a pattern change early February.

I say that the first day of winter every year.

[WinterFire]

This stat was tossed off a few days ago but I’ve been following it for a while—it’s been a long time since DCA was in the teens, and with the way things are going, I’d bet we push four years before we dip into the teens again…

(Off-topic, I know, but this seemed like the best fit since we don’t have a panic room anymore)

[North Balti Zen]

It’s a perfect spot for that post - not off-topic at all.

[Jebman]

7 hours ago, WinterFire said:

This stat was tossed off a few days ago but I’ve been following it for a while—it’s been a long time since DCA was in the teens, and with the way things are going, I’d bet we push four years before we dip into the teens again…

(Off-topic, I know, but this seemed like the best fit since we don’t have a panic room anymore)

Where in the heck is The Reaper! The Reaper never ever retires! Reaper, get The Panic Room topic started, OR ELSE! Don't make me have to show you how to REAP!

[snowfan]

BWI hasn’t had a double digit snowfall month since January 2016. 
DCA has 1 month with >= 5” snowfall since January 2016.

[WinterFire]

Record high annual minimum temp in 2021, and a record high “lowest maximum” temp in 2020. I hate how much I’d give for the “historic warmth” of the winters of the late-2000s and early-2010s. 
 

Worse still, I’m sure I’ll have the same feelings about these years in the next decade…

[North Balti Zen]

On 8/12/2020 at 10:08 AM, North Balti Zen said:

BWI:

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

1.8 - 2019/20

2.3 - 2001/02

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

.6 - 2019/20

2.0 - 2011/12

2.2 - '75/'76

Dulles:

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

2.9 - 2019/20

3.7 - 2011/12

4.4 - '80/'81

A reminder about what we are stalking in this thread. Feeling good about our chances…

[North Balti Zen]

Hello darkness my old friend

I've come to bump this thread again

Because the winds they blow so cold

and yet we remain stuck in failure mode

and the memories of snow that were planted in my brain

still remain

within the sounds of silence

BUMP

Quote

 

BWI:

.7 - '49/'50

1.2 - '72/'73

1.8 - 2011/12

1.8 - 2019/20

2.3 - 2001/02

DCA

.1 - '97/'98

.1 - '72/'73

.6 - 2019/20

2.0 - 2011/12

2.2 - '75/'76

Dulles:

2.2 - '72/'73

2.6 - 2001/02

2.9 - 2019/20

3.7 - 2011/12

4.4 - '80/'81

 

 

[North Balti Zen]

 

[psuhoffman]

On 12/23/2022 at 2:42 PM, North Balti Zen said:

Hello darkness my old friend

I've come to bump this thread again

Because the winds they blow so cold

and yet we remain stuck in failure mode

and the memories of snow that were planted in my brain

still remain

within the sounds of silence

BUMP

 

A lot of those years up there were on the list of very few years that didn’t snow much up here by January 1.  Just saying….

[North Balti Zen]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

A lot of those years up there were on the list of very few years that didn’t snow much up here by January 1.  Just saying….

Yeah. I think you and I are on the same page with where this is going...(I bumped this when I did for a reason)

[cbmclean]

Perhaps this is a good place to discuss DCA snow statistics?  

@WesternFringe I'd like to give your thesis a fair hearing.  What specifically is your claim? 

From your latest post I see: "the data don’t show a huge downturn".  Some specific questions:

1. "Data": Which dataset are you using?

2. "Don't show": What do quantitatively are you claiming the data shows or does not show?  Which metrics have you calculated to evaluate that claim?  From the recent debates in the thread it seems as if you were focusing on decadal averages of the 1980's vs the 2010s.  Is that accurate?

3. "huge": What would constitute a huge downturn?

[WesternFringe]

Honestly, this has me nerded out and I want to respond with specifics rn, but I need to take my daughter to her grandma’s house and eat dinner.  I will get back to you tonight or tomorrow!

ETA: Did Mappy guide you to guide me here? Lol

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, WesternFringe said:

Honestly, this has me nerded out and I want to respond with specifics rn, but I need to take my daughter to her grandma’s house and eat dinner.  I will get back to you tonight or tomorrow!

ETA: Did Mappy guide you to guide me here? Lol

Fell free to nerd out.  I enjoy a good statistical analysis.

And no, no one asked me to move the discussion here but I noticed some impatience with it in the main thread, so this gets it out of the way for those who are not interested. 

[WinterFire]

@donsutherland1 did this analysis for DCA recently in another forum. I won’t repost without permission but it presented a very clear decline in seasonal snowfall combined with a stark increase in average winter temp and shorter cold season length. Perhaps he’d be willing to re-share here for reference?