DarkSharkWX Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 we'd need a 26.2" average over the next 7 years to keep IAD at its average of 21", mean from 2000-2015 is 22.4"(median 14.4") compared to mean of 11.0"(median 11.9") from 2017-2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 8 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: we'd need a 26.2" average over the next 7 years to keep IAD at its average of 21", mean from 2000-2015 is 22.4"(median 14.4") compared to mean of 11.0"(median 11.9") from 2017-2023 Realistically we may only get up to 16-19” average in the next up period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 10 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: we'd need a 26.2" average over the next 7 years to keep IAD at its average of 21", mean from 2000-2015 is 22.4"(median 14.4") compared to mean of 11.0"(median 11.9") from 2017-2023 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Realistically we may only get up to 16-19” average in the next up period. Those means were already reduced. When I moved to northern VA in the 90s the IAD "avg" was 23". It wasn't long ago that BWI was close to 22". My baseline will always be set as those numbers. I know I am getting older but I am not a fossil or anything... it's not like we are talking about 50 or 100 years ago. But now we talk about "will BWI get BACK to 19" or will IAD get BACK to 20" but for me those numbers are already lower than what my baseline was. This has been going on for a while...so no its highly unlikely we get back to the climo numbers of the previous 30 year period...just like the most recent period didn't get back to the numbers of the one before and so on and so on...this trend has been happening for quite a while now. The real questions is...has it accelerated recently or is this just a down period following the 2016 super nino. I tend to lean down period...and that the snowfall will bounce back some. I'll feel a lot better when we see the actual evidence of that and its not just hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 This was the least snowy winter that I have been through. Worse than 97-98, 02-03, 11-12, and 19-20 at the locations I was in at those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 27, 2023 Author Share Posted March 27, 2023 I'm calling it. The trolling hail mary posts from paulythegun showing 1 in a million chances at measurable snow this late seem to have stopped and opening day is Thursday and next week looks seasonally warm so...below is what the new futility marks look like. New number 1 worst snow total ever at BWI and Dulles and 3rd worst at DCA. 3 of the top 5 worst snow total seasons ever at each airport since 2011/12 season to now. Here's hoping this thread does not have to be bumped at all next winter... BWI: .2 - 2022/23 .7 - '49/'50 1.2 - '72/'73 1.8 - 2011/12 1.8 - 2019/20 DCA .1 - '97/'98 .1 - '72/'73 .4 - 2022/23 .6 - 2019/20 2.0 - 2011/12 Dulles: .4 - 2022/23 2.2 - '72/'73 2.6 - 2001/02 2.9 - 2019/20 3.7 - 2011/12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 27, 2023 Share Posted March 27, 2023 15 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I'm calling it. The trolling hail mary posts from paulythegun showing 1 in a million chances at measurable snow this late seem to have stopped and opening day is Thursday and next week looks seasonally warm so...below is what the new futility marks look like. New number 1 worst snow total ever at BWI and Dulles and 3rd worst at DCA. 3 of the top 5 worst snow total seasons ever at each airport since 2011/12 season to now. Here's hoping this thread does not have to be bumped at all next winter... BWI: .2 - 2022/23 .7 - '49/'50 1.2 - '72/'73 1.8 - 2011/12 1.8 - 2019/20 DCA .1 - '97/'98 .1 - '72/'73 .4 - 2022/23 .6 - 2019/20 2.0 - 2011/12 Dulles: .4 - 2022/23 2.2 - '72/'73 2.6 - 2001/02 2.9 - 2019/20 3.7 - 2011/12 Cleanly the worst snowfall winter if you sum or average the total of the three main climo sites. Just awful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 27, 2023 Author Share Posted November 27, 2023 Ok, here's the naughty list - we should be safe from adding to it this year. Probably. BWI: .2 - 2022/23 .7 - '49/'50 1.2 - '72/'73 1.8 - 2011/12 1.8 - 2019/20 DCA .1 - '97/'98 .1 - '72/'73 .4 - 2022/23 .6 - 2019/20 2.0 - 2011/12 Dulles: .4 - 2022/23 2.2 - '72/'73 2.6 - 2001/02 2.9 - 2019/20 3.7 - 2011/12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 27, 2023 Author Share Posted November 27, 2023 - three of the worst snowfall seasons in the beltway regions have occurred since 2011 and many of us have been posting together in that timespan on this very forum - maybe that explains the generalized snow angst (on top of the obvious thrist for snow given how historically awful last year was...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 26, 2023 Author Share Posted December 26, 2023 On 11/27/2023 at 7:20 AM, North Balti Zen said: - three of the worst snowfall seasons in the beltway regions have occurred since 2011 and many of us have been posting together in that timespan on this very forum - maybe that explains the generalized snow angst (on top of the obvious thrist for snow given how historically awful last year was...) General bumpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Did the airports exceed last year's futility markers with the anafrontal event a couple weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 26, 2023 Author Share Posted December 26, 2023 Yes. Top five futility still in play at all stations tho. eta ytd- bwi is 0.0 so… dca .1 dulles .5 Yeah - we need actual snowfall to stop threatening the top 5 again at each reporting station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I had posted this in one of the storm threads last week but I really should have put it here. -Over the last ten snow seasons (2014-15 to 2023-24), BWI currently holds a 10-year average snowfall of 12.8." This is currently a record low, but winter isn't over yet. -The record lowest 10-year average is 14.3" which has occurred twice before: 1947-48 to 1956-57, and again from 1967-68 to 1976-77. -BWI will need to get at least 15.7" of snow this season to avoid tying the record low 10-year average. To break the record, there must be less than 14.7" this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Looking like Saturday won’t move the needle much at moving the year off the list just yet. Maybe late January will obsolete this thread for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/18zaufp/oc_seasonal_snowfall_anomaly_map_of_the_us/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 I'm guessing none of the airports recorded anything beyond a trace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Starting to feel like maybe game on unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 712 days now for me w no snow- the beat goes on no sign of relief either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Time to mothball this until December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 7 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Time to mothball this until December. Each airport got at least four? then indeed it can drift away until next January at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 9 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Time to mothball this until December. BWI still has a long way to go to not break the ten year futility record though, so this thread is still relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 With 4.9 at BWI, 4.4 at Dulles and and 4.1 at DCA we ensure that this year will not see an airport join the futility list. Will keep an eye on it for the 10-year mark for BWI that PFW is referencing... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Looks like this hasn't been bumped yet. Despite how bad things looked a month ago the tune seems to have changed around here so the futility markers might remain safe again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3 Author Share Posted December 3 We will see. I usually bump this when panic sets in by end of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Didn’t you all hear? @psuhoffman got 4” in November. Rocking winter inbound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 I expect an even deeper plunge into 10-year futility record territory for BWI, as 2014-15 is now removed from the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14 Author Share Posted December 14 On 12/3/2024 at 10:43 AM, WxUSAF said: Didn’t you all hear? @psuhoffman got 4” in November. Rocking winter inbound. not enough. he's canceled winter. time of death - 6z gfs on 12/14/24. Mind you, I went WAY low for the contest, so...kinda playing out so far like I expected. We shall see. In any event, bumping this since panic is afoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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