Snowstorms Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 10 hours ago, harrisale said: GFS has shown a fairly consistent icing signal for Southern Ontario. 0.5" ZR could come to fruition. 12z Euro has some initial ice, but for the most part it falls as rain with surface temperatures peaking at 43F. Areas north of Barrie towards eastern Ontario get the ice this run. Euro has been the warmest model for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The GFS has trended a little more amplified since last night, but it doesn't change the sensible results much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 24 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The GFS has trended a little more amplified since last night, but it doesn't change the sensible results much. In the grand scheme of things, it only boils down to light vs. moderate stratiform rain for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 3 hours ago, Powerball said: In the grand scheme of things, it only boils down to light vs. moderate stratiform rain for most. Yup, I'm glad I'm west of the ice storm potential but another boring rain event is the last thing we need this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Meanwhile on the svr concern end of this, the Sunday evening NAM has STP around 6 overnight Monday night from St. Louis southwestward. Effective Helicity is around 360. CAPE over 1000 and low LCL's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 1 hour ago, Indystorm said: Meanwhile on the svr concern end of this, the Sunday evening NAM has STP around 6 overnight Monday night from St. Louis southwestward. Effective Helicity is around 360. CAPE over 1000 and low LCL's. Ingredients seem a bit out of phase to me on Tuesday (better instability lagging). Will be curious to see what SPC has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Thread for the system on the heels of this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Tonight into early tomorrow Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Mon Feb 06 2017 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TONIGHT FROM THE OZARKS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for isolated hail and wind damage may develop across parts of the Ozarks northeastward into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys tonight. ...Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley tonight... A largely zonal regime persists across the contiguous United States. A lead shortwave trough is now emerging over the southern/central High Plains, and this wave will reach MO by early tonight. The primary upstream trough, now over the southern Great Basin, will reach OK/AR early Tuesday morning. Broad lee cyclogenesis across the central Plains will continue to support strengthening southerly low-level flow and moisture advection from east TX and LA toward AR/MO through tonight. Clouds associated with the moisture return will slow surface heating from northeast TX and eastern OK into AR through the afternoon, while eastward expansion of a plume of steep lapse rates will likely cap the moistening boundary layer through the afternoon. The increasing low-level moisture beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in potentially moderate buoyancy, and vertical shear will be favorable for supercells. Will maintain a conditional risk area for large hail/isolated damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado, given the approach of the lead shortwave trough and the later arrival of the primary trough. Still, confidence in the details regarding convective initiation remain unclear into tonight across eastern OK into AR/MO. Farther northeast, convective inhibition will be weaker as low-level moisture increases on a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Elevated convection overnight may produce large hail into IL/IN. ..Thompson/Edwards.. 02/06/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 It is strange but I can't get the Day 2 SPC convective outlook to load. They only have the map and outlook from 0700 on the page. Anyone else have this problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: It is strange but I can't get the Day 2 SPC convective outlook to load. They only have the map and outlook from 0700 on the page. Anyone else have this problem? The SPC is having some issues uploading new products to their website right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 Can use COD http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Can use COD http://kamala.cod.edu/spc/ Thanks....important since the threat of svr wx is possible tonight and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 The end of the discussion for day 2 seems curiously like the situation here in central IN on the evening of Jan. 10 of this year when a line of svr t storms formed on the IL/In border and moved east giving me my first svr warning of the year and part of a tree down in my front lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 RGEM/NAM/GFS all have about 0.3-0.6" (7-15mm) of freezing rain for the GTA tom away from the Lake. Going to be a treacherous day if that were to happen. Bulk of it falls around noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nice cluster of storms heading this way. Looks to have some decent lightning with it. Fog has become quite dense over the past few hours, and the temp has settled back to 41. A far cry from the sunny and 55 degrees we had about 9hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Loudest thunder I've heard in quite a while. Maybe when the warm front pulls north the sun will come out and we can hit 90, and get a nice squall line out in front of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Snow started around 5 this morning, quickly getting steady. Wouldn't be surprised to see a woodsy spot or two around here end up with a foot... Hoping for some decent rates later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Had some thunderstorms here overnight/early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Had some thunderstorms here overnight/early this morning. It was a mess earlier... a lot of standing water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Steady ZR here for the last 1.5hrs or so. Nice glaze on most surfaces, could see up to 0.5" of freezing rain. Luckily we'll scoot up above 40F for a few hours to save us from any significant outages once the cold front comes through later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Lovely day here in Detroit, though I don't think we are making mid 50s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Got two inches of rain in the gauge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Willh said: Up to about 8-9 inches of snow since last night. Very dense snow. Well over 200 inches of snow for the season. Prolly around 215-220 inches so far here in Calumet. 7" since 5 am here Will. I estimate 2" per hour rates currently with lake enhancement. 5-6" more likely... 21 degrees. Dense snow beginning to fluff up a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Willh said: Nice Bo! This storm is really over-performing over here. We had 8-9 inches a few hours ago...and its still pouring snow and my car is covered once again. Looking good for the near future, too. This storm was canceled too early...mostly by snow weenies in the big cities. This is really turning out to be a fun storm in the UP. Lucky for you, been pooing freezing rain in my area for a couple hours now, roads are a mess. Not a good combination especially when your wife is due any day now. Hopefully it switches over to LES pretty quickly and the road crews can get on the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nice Bo! This storm is really over-performing over here. We had 8-9 inches a few hours ago...and its still pouring snow and my car is covered once again. Looking good for the near future, too. This storm was canceled too early...mostly by snow weenies in the big cities. This is really turning out to be a fun storm in the UP.No one canceled the storm. Non-event for 99% of the sub-forum means it isn't interesting for most.You really need to learn how to post in this sub. Cause you're off to a bad start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 29 minutes ago, Willh said: Nice Bo! This storm is really over-performing over here. We had 8-9 inches a few hours ago...and its still pouring snow and my car is covered once again. Looking good for the near future, too. This storm was canceled too early...mostly by snow weenies in the big cities. This is really turning out to be a fun storm in the UP. Awesome news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 30 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Lucky for you, been pooing freezing rain in my area for a couple hours now, roads are a mess. Not a good combination especially when your wife is due any day now. Hopefully it switches over to LES pretty quickly and the road crews can get on the ice. It's really bad a horrible winter for synoptic outside of the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Nicest system snow of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, Willh said: We're so lucky to live up here. You're going to get us beat up Very impressed with this system locally... enhancement and upslope really performing for you and I, but not very many more in the sub. 12 hours of mod/hvy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 ^Nice snow pics guys. Finished with only 0.11" rain for the system, but the light show and associated thunder was very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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