Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 There will be some sort of interesting weather during this period at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Looks like it. ECMWF still running south of other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 ECMWF is further south than the GFS right now but both models seem the show 850 temps fairly warm (above 0) before the onset of the storm. GFS shows the 850 low passing through southern Wisconsin and Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Could be quite a windbag if the deeper solutions pan out. General setup with a deep low and strong CAA looks conducive for a period of strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Could be quite a windbag if the deeper solutions pan out. General setup with a deep low and strong CAA looks conducive for a period of strong winds. 3 things the way I see it. 1) Where the PNA trough sets up and how much it digs out West 2) The strength of the PV around Hudson Bay (for CAD) 3) The initial overrunning event on Feb 3rd-4th has an impact on how everything plays out afterwards Could mean the difference between a track like the Euro or the GFS and whether some areas in the sub-forum get frozen precipitation, to start off atleast. How was the 12z Euro in terms of precipitation? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 I know I'll suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune by being the warminista, but I hope the Euro cuts nw at the progged strength shown on this run and increases the warm sector and prospects for svr southward from central IL and IN. 18z GFS is warm and stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 hour ago, Indystorm said: I know I'll suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune by being the warminista, but I hope the Euro cuts nw at the progged strength shown on this run and increases the warm sector and prospects for svr southward from central IL and IN. 18z GFS is warm and stormy. A little early to get too deep into the severe threat, but there's been a consistent signal for good mid level lapse rates along with decent moisture return for this time of year. The GFS is actually showing CAPE of 1000 J/kg (elevated) all the way north near the IA/MO border, which is notable at this distance. System evolution/track will obviously affect the magnitude/location of any severe threat, but barring some drastic falling apart, I'd say there's a pretty good chance of a severe threat somewhere in this sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 The number of sub 980 mb members in the WI/MI area is striking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 This one's also DOA in terms of snow prospects for most besides weatherbo and NorthernMI Josh, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 42 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The number of sub 980 mb members in the WI/MI area is striking That actually is quite surprising, makes you wonder if we will trend toward a stronger system closer on in. Usually when the ensembles have a signal this strong, the op plays catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 The big question is how far south the wave can dig as it crosses the Rockies ala kinda like GHD II did and get pressure falls as far south as possible on the lee side of the Rockies ahead of the s/w amplifying. The GFS has now trended 5 runs in a row of its usual baby step mode regarding improvements over the Pacific where both the lead wave and stronger ULL come ashore. The baroclinic zone coming down with the CAA advection is very impressive and any wave coming over it can really spin up a low up fast and furious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 00z GFS still fairly far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Thundersnow12 said: The big question is how far south the wave can dig as it crosses the Rockies ala kinda like GHD II did and get pressure falls as far south as possible on the lee side of the Rockies ahead of the s/w amplifying. The GFS has now trended 5 runs in a row of its usual baby step mode regarding improvements over the Pacific where both the lead wave and stronger ULL come ashore. The baroclinic zone coming down with the CAA advection is very impressive and any wave coming over it can really spin up a low up fast and furious. This. That "PV trending amplified" discussion that Ricky brought up awhile ago via I believe Dr. Gensini (I believe for 11/17/13 and GHD II) is ringing in my mind right now. The synoptics here are a bit reminiscent, although obviously I don't expect anything on the order of magnitude of the former severe wise. The SE could have some problems though on that front especially if this thing decides to shift more amplified like last night's Euro run or some of the 18z GEFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: 00z GFS still fairly far north. The mean is still south of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Euro op is south of the GEFS, and even it deposits the main snow area from Wisconsin to Michigan. Not expecting anything more than a few rain showers, followed by some wind-blown flurries for the DVN area. If the storm could slow down some, then I'd be more optimistic at getting some heavier showers, and perhaps a thunder threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, andyhb said: This. That "PV trending amplified" discussion that Ricky brought up awhile ago via I believe Dr. Gensini (I believe for 11/17/13 and GHD II) is ringing in my mind right now. The synoptics here are a bit reminiscent, although obviously I don't expect anything on the order of magnitude of the former severe wise. The SE could have some problems though on that front especially if this thing decides to shift more amplified like last night's Euro run or some of the 18z GEFS members. A number of the CIPS analogs had severe wx in the Ohio Valley. Wasn't as supportive farther north, but I wouldn't rule it out if the track is right. Given the decent mid level lapse rates being progged -- and in close proximity to the surface low -- dews into the mid/upper 50s or so may be enough for notable severe chances. If we get a deeper/more amplified outcome, I think there's gonna be serious concern even in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: A number of the CIPS analogs had severe wx in the Ohio Valley. Wasn't as supportive farther north, but I wouldn't rule it out if the track is right. Given the decent mid level lapse rates being progged -- and in close proximity to the surface low -- dews into the mid/upper 50s or so may be enough for notable severe chances. If we get a deeper/more amplified outcome, I think there's gonna be serious concern even in this region. The severe threat alone makes it worth keeping an eye on. I have no meteorology to back this up, but the track record this winter has been for storms to verify much weaker than depicted at 120+, no matter the model, so I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Euro went south with the SLP. 996mb over central IN at 120hrs to 979mb over Watertown NY at 144hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Feb. 3 12z GFS has 988 low over Chi-town at 18z Tuesday and 985 low ne of Grand Rapids at 00z that evening. Concern for svr is increasing for the Ohio Valley, central Il and In if this continues with good lapse rates and near 1000 surface CAPE at 102 hrs Tuesday afternoon. We'll see what the Euro says shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Euro more in line with the GFS now, actually bounced back north of the GFS solution. Looking like a rainer for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 1 hour ago, harrisale said: Euro more in line with the GFS now, actually bounced back north of the GFS solution. Looking like a rainer for most. Impending warm-up a few days after the storm, which looks to last for the better part of February as the EPO ridge retrogrades and we get a massive trough over Alaska. Stick a fork in this winter, we"ll be lucky to get another 6" total for the remainder of the season, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Its not sampled yet. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 GFS hitting the wraparound snow. Not a lot but with wind and crashing temps, it would look like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: GFS hitting the wraparound snow. Not a lot but with wind and crashing temps, it would look like winter. One of the weirder looking wraparound/trowal features I've seen modeled from us on east along I-80. Could argue close to blizzard like conditions. 925mb pushing 50kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 DVN going with a non-event for the cwa. Don't see much reason to disagree. GFS looks too aggressive/unrealistic with the wraparound snows. Earlier runs of the Euro had that as well to some extent, but has begun backing off on it. Rain should be expected from Monday evening through Tuesday morning, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the east. While this is possible, the confidence is not overly high measurable rain, as we may have some issues with mid level saturation. Should rain fail, drizzle should be widespread, thus I`m not going to get too concerned about pops, in the end, wet is wet on day 4. As the low moves to the east Tuesday afternoon, aggressive cold advection, possibly with snow showers and low visibility per 12Z GFS, will arrive. Though the 12Z GFS indicates a winter event, the 12Z GEM and ECMWF miss the CWA from the main impacts, showing a mainly dry CAA event. We will stick with lower chance pops for snow Tuesday afternoon and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: One of the weirder looking wraparound/trowal features I've seen modeled from us on east along I-80. Could argue close to blizzard like conditions. 925mb pushing 50kts Yeah, hard to put a lot of stock in it yet, but it would be a little consolation prize. The odds of a really significant snow around here are about nonexistent, so at this point I'm actually hoping for a farther north solution to get a little deeper into the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 That southern wave is too progressive, otherwise you'd have a chance for a full phase and really rapid cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 Don't follow the Forbes Torcon a whole lot, but I saw this image circulating around. At this point, the GFS looks a little too veered with surface winds for my liking, but perhaps it's overdoing it a bit. Even as is, maybe just enough low level turning. In any case, I can't imagine Dr. Forbes has made too many maps like this in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2017 Share Posted February 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Don't follow the Forbes Torcon a whole lot, but I saw this image circulating around. At this point, the GFS looks a little too veered with surface winds for my liking, but perhaps it's overdoing it a bit. Even as is, maybe just enough low level turning. In any case, I can't imagine Dr. Forbes has made too many maps like this in early February. GFS is notorious for being too veered at the surface with strong systems. It will be interesting to see what the NAM has once it gets closer in range with respect to low level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, hard to put a lot of stock in it yet, but it would be a little consolation prize. The odds of a really significant snow around here are about nonexistent, so at this point I'm actually hoping for a farther north solution to get a little deeper into the warm sector. I will say Alek is optimistic about this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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