Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I could see a Day 2 MOD appear on the 0700 SPC OTLK... ofc not around here... but I wouldn't be surprised by one for the Ohio Valley area... ENH may be nearby our region IMO Yea that's the upper end for us I think. If things fall into place perfectly we could get a Day 1 MOD if the TOR threat amps up a bit, but thats uber pressing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 These soundings and seeing the models showing a boundary setting up across southern MD, gives me the chills. Not liking this one bit. Hope it all stays linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Was the derecho the last mod day here? Not comparing anything of course, just asking. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20160224 That event had MOD risk close by just to our south... also had hatched TOR over our area (Feb 24 2016)... closest I can find right now in the SPC archive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea that's the upper end for us I think. If things fall into place perfectly we could get a Day 1 MOD if the TOR threat amps up a bit, but thats uber pressing it. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see many of us get closer to the Enhanced Risk with the Day 2 update tonight. Any Moderate Risk wouldn't come until the later Day 1 updates after SPC sees how things are unfolding/cloud cover/mesoscale boundaries, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Warren/Culpeper/Rappahanock county area from 00z 4km NAM sounding at 21z WED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Fairfax County (just south of DC) at 00z THUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Yeah, CHO soundings are fun Wednesday afternoon as well. Juices are starting to flow a little bit more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Yoda, I have SHARPpy as well but probably not an updated version that can do specific locations like you are posting, is southern MD still TOR and PDS TOR Wednesday evening? And where can I find the updated version of SHARPpy? My older version shows DCA as PDS Tor at 23z Wed on 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 If I am reading this right, the sim IR satellite has us in substantial clearing from 17z to when the storms hit the DC region later on looking at the 00z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 4km NAM shows major clearing in the afternoon ahead of the evening supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, southmdwatcher said: Yoda, I have SHARPpy as well but probably not an updated version that can do specific locations like you are posting, is southern MD still TOR and PDS TOR Wednesday evening? And where can I find the updated version of SHARPpy? My older version shows DCA as PDS Tor at 23z Wed on 4km NAM http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Thats where I get my soundings from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 00z SPC WRF has our area precip free after the early morning hours of Wednesday (after 7z)... precip at 12z WED in western WV is headed NE and will miss our area... and has temps in the low 60s at DCA at 7am... run ends at 12z WED, so going to have to wait till the 12z run tomorrow morning to see what the SPC WRF does in our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Morning Day 2 SPC OTLK keeps us in slight risk for now... but mentions higher severe probability across our area possible depending on degree of destabilization and maybe on the 1730 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Quite a change from Wednesday (sunny at times, 80 F) to Friday (cloudy, 37 F, chance of snow). Think there could be widespread 60-70 mph gusts with the squall line around 10 p.m. Wednesday, possible F2 tornado risk, also an earlier threat from a wave along the warm front early Wednesday. Strong gusty winds all day Thursday then sleet or snow possible (1-3 inches n MD and s PA) with the trailing wave on Friday. In like a lion anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 The 06z GFS continues the trend of being significantly less unstable than the NAM twins. We'll see which one wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Well, least my last two days of the month made in into the 20's for lows. Been a crazy warm month! Currently 30.3/29.0, low was 29.3, yesterday 28.9. Those are still ABOVE NORMAL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I created the thread -- you can blame me if it fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Assuming we hit our forecast high of 68F today (and with 100% certainty, we will surpass it) that leaves OKV for the month: Highs - +9.43 F Lows - +7.18 F We had 4 days with highs in the 30s and 11 with highs 60+, including 3 days of 72+ I guess all the calls for a front-loaded winter were right after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Bit of a difference Saturday morning between the ECMWF and the GFS. The GFS is downright cold...850s at -16, temp in the low 20s and wind chills in the single digits. Euro has lighter winds and temps in the mid-20s. Will be interesting to see how the plant life responds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Bit of a difference Saturday morning between the ECMWF and the GFS. The GFS is downright cold...850s at -16, temp in the low 20s and wind chills in the single digits. Euro has lighter winds and temps in the mid-20s. Will be interesting to see how the plant life responds. I hope we kill off every stink bug and kudzu bug in existence. Oh and wasps. Them too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I hope we kill off every stink bug and kudzu bug in existence. Oh and wasps. Them too And mosquitoes..... and flowers.. I hate flowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Any every fruit tree that's decided to bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 4 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I hope we kill off every stink bug and kudzu bug in existence. Oh and wasps. Them too I got lit up by two wasps last year on two separate occasions. It had been many years since I had been stung by a wasp. I get stung by yellow jackets on a regular basis. Not really a big deal. But a paper wasp? Oh, yeah. That's pain you don't forget about for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Thunder and rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Looks like the dry Feb. record will stand at DCA. Only needed 0.01" and we'll get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 OK, number crunching time for the end of month stuff Average high was 55.4 degrees, three new record high temps recorded for month, 70.3 degrees on 8th, 72.5 degrees on 13th which was also high for month and 67.6 degrees on 21st. This is a +8.7 above average of 46.7 degrees, and sets a new record beating 1990's mark of 55.1 degrees. Average low was 29.7 degrees, a +6.2 above average for the month, lowest temp for month was 14.9 degrees on 4th. Average temp for month of 42.6 degrees was a +7.5 above average and just missed beating the record of 42.8 degrees set in 1990. 0.67 inches of rain for the month, again just missing a record set in 2002 of 0.69 inches and 1.92 inches below the normal of 2.59 inches. Largest rainfall was 0.32 inches on 9th, I had 5 days of measurable rainfall and 7 days of T's. Snowfall for the month was a T, which happened on 4 separate days. This ties the record, again set in 1990 of a T of snowfall, average for the month is 4.4 inches, which is my current total for the entire year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 I got two daffodils in my front yard and I hate them. I look forward to March SNOW! I went to the local store, bought five huge bags of ice cubes. I waited til 3am last night then went out and covered the daffodils with ice. I hate Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Highest Temperature: February 24 with a high 76.3 Lowest Temperature: February 4th and February 10th with a low of 22 Average High Temperature: 56.5 Average Low Temperature: 34.14 Total Rain: 1.26 Snow: 0 The temperature reached 70+ degrees 7 days and 75+ degrees 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 An average February high of 56 is absolutely insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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