Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Decent supercell composite maps on the 12z NAM run. Looks like best values lie just to our north. Also winds look to be more southwesterly this time vs Saturday's event. Would like to see more S or SE perhaps for a tornado threat. As per usual we'll probably get our biggest threat from straight line wind damage. And it helps when you ARE the IT department Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 We do need the rain though. Moderate drought now showing on the US Drought Monitor page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 New Day 2 SPC outlook is half an hour late... ETA: Finally posted... pretty good disco for the Ohio Valley area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Oh @Kmlwx and @Eskimo Joe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 PDS Tornado LOL. In all seriousness though, I'm pretty giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: PDS Tornado LOL. In all seriousness though, I'm pretty giddy. That sounding above was from LaPlata, MD This, though, is the sounding for DCA at 00z THUR per 12z 4k NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Watch the LaPlata Tornado Zone™ verify twice in one week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 I know its the 4km NAM at end of its range, but you don't usually see PDS TOR at all around here in model soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I know its the 4km NAM at end of its range, but you don't usually see PDS TOR at all around here in model soundings Indeed. We still have a few things that need to fall into place (timing, strength of and low level wedge of cold air and amount of sunshine) but it's going to be a good couple of days for tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Good write-up from Sterling: Quote Significant weather day possible Wednesday. Deepening low pressure center will be passing through the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night and into Wednesday with a trailing cold front moving towards and through the Mid-Atlantic states later Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Some morning showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing across the area, mainly north, but most of the activity will likely be associated with a cold frontal passage later Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will soar in the warm sector out ahead of the front well into the 70s to around 80F with dew points in the 50s to near 60F. This should help generate MLCAPE values into the 500-1000 J/KG range. At the same time, very strong southwest flow will move overhead, with 0-6KM shear increasing to 60-70 knots. Equally impressive is the 850mb flow maxing out at about 50-60 knots. These factors will help set the stage for potential severe weather late Wednesday and Wednesday evening ahead of the cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed our region in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. After cold front passes, will see gusty northwest winds take over later Wednesday night with falling temperatures. Some upslope snow showers also possible late near the Allegheny Front. Lows Wednesday night from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 18z NAM looks downright nasty for our area 21z WED to 00z THUR... waiting to see what the 4km NAM comes up with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 18z 4km NAM lights up NW VA with PDS TOR soundings at 21z... and then DC once again is in a PDS TOR sounding at 00z THUR This is slightly SW of Winchester, VA at 21z WED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 We are going to be something like +24 on March after the first day of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 If we see temperatures get in to the 75-80° range, game on! GFS insists there will be a saturated layer from ~550 mb on up to 200mb, which wouldn't give us a lot of sunshine. Will be interesting to see just how fast we're able to clear out after Tuesday evening's rain. That said, it's starting to get the juices flowing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 28 minutes ago, WxReese said: If we see temperatures get in to the 75-80° range, game on! GFS insists there will be a saturated layer from ~550 mb on up to 200mb, which wouldn't give us a lot of sunshine. Will be interesting to see just how fast we're able to clear out after Tuesday evening's rain. That said, it's starting to get the juices flowing again. Yea that's the key. If we get stuck in the clouds this time of year, then we are toast. Well know by 10-11am Wed if this thing has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Can't imagine having two good t'storm days that close together so my guy says failure. But the parameters do look good at this range...but how many times have we seen things go poof as we get closer? Some very juicy soundings on the 18z NAM and 4km NAM though. I do wish the winds had just a little bit more southerly component for those rooting for an increase in the spinny threat. Most modeling still has southwesterly though it does look like the 18z NAM did come towards S just a hair more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 What does a significant tornado parameter of 2.5 mean. What is considered high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxReese Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: What does a significant tornado parameter of 2.5 mean. What is considered high? A Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) over 1 is considered high, so a STP of 2.5 is really high, specially for us in the Mid-Atlantic in early March. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/help/help_stor.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 The GFS has been consistently less bullish than the NAM and NAM4k. Much less CAPE it seems and consequently less impressive parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 21z SREFS look excellent re supercell composite 21z Wed and 00z Thurs... sig tor ingredients show both a large 15 on the 21z Wed frame and 15 on the 00z Thurs frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Wisp closed yesterday for the season. Earliest I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 35 minutes ago, yoda said: 21z SREFS look excellent re supercell composite 21z Wed and 00z Thurs... sig tor ingredients show both a large 15 on the 21z Wed frame and 15 on the 00z Thurs frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Yoda, can you explain that map? Looks like my nephew drew it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yoda, can you explain that map? Looks like my nephew drew it. It shows the supercell composite from the SREF. So the greenish color is the median supercell composite parameter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Pretty interesting scenario on the 3km NAM parallel nest (on which I'm going to focus since it's going to be the ops in a few weeks). A line forms over WV by noon Wednesday, but the northern part of the line accelerates and becomes E-W oriented just north of the DC Beltway before washing out. Then the southern part of the line with seemingly emdedded supercells comes through all points south of where the northern line washes out. My description isn't very good, so check out the simulated reflectivity on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It shows the supercell composite from the SREF. So the greenish color is the median supercell composite parameter. Which in this case, shows it to be greater than 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 13 minutes ago, high risk said: Pretty interesting scenario on the 3km NAM parallel nest (on which I'm going to focus since it's going to be the ops in a few weeks). A line forms over WV by noon Wednesday, but the northern part of the line accelerates and becomes E-W oriented just north of the DC Beltway before washing out. Then the southern part of the line with seemingly emdedded supercells comes through all points south of where the northern line washes out. My description isn't very good, so check out the simulated reflectivity on TT. I see what you mean... hrs 46-48 absolutely pwn DC south with sups 46 -- we're all like dang it, missed the storms DC south 47 -- then we're all like holy sh*t 48 -- we get rocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I'd hold off until tomorrow afternoons update to see if we need a thread. Don't jinx it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I'd hold off until tomorrow afternoons update to see if we need a thread. Don't jinx it. Then we shall make you start it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 I could see a Day 2 MOD appear on the 0700 SPC OTLK... ofc not around here... but I wouldn't be surprised by one for the southern Ohio Valley area... ENH may be nearby our region IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.