Eskimo Joe Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Fogg start here in Reisterstown, but south winds are kicking up and visible satellite shows clearing just to my south. I'm pretty stoked about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 60/59 and milky sunshine here. No fog this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Latest HRRR has a nice UD helicity signature going over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 70 here already in Spotsylvania, dew point 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 And of course I'm out of town near Carlisle. So that probably means I'll miss a MoCo wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Decent sun here...hoping we can get some more substantial clearing regionwide. The low level clouds are racing pretty good so it doesn't seem like it will take too much to tap that. Really have a good feeling about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Buds opening up on my Bradford pear this morning. With the fully-bloomed cherry across the street and quickly greening lawns, it looks like early April here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Decent sun here...hoping we can get some more substantial clearing regionwide. The low level clouds are racing pretty good so it doesn't seem like it will take too much to tap that. Really have a good feeling about today. Well if YOU'RE bullish - somebody is getting rekt today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: As a reminder, this is the second year of the WxWatcher Prediction System™. Good early season test on tap. And yet again I love this. I'm not even in the area today so I hope you all fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1300 SPC OTLK is yummy 2/15/15 now for our region Quote ..CENTRAL/EASTERN NY TO NORTH CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON... THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL NY AND EASTERN PA SOUTHWARD ACROSS VA INTO AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL NC. WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH (70S FROM VA INTO NC) AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S WILL DRIVE WEAK-MODERATE SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG), ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC REGIME WILL AID IN DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. ADDITIONALLY, SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEASONABLY COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES (NEAR -17 C AT 500 MB). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 12z 4KM NAM soundings are really nice and pretty powerful for February across the region between 18z and 20z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 20 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z 4KM NAM soundings are really nice and pretty powerful for February across the region between 18z and 20z I wish you were referring to snow..but severe is ok too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 I'm giddy. This is about as good of a setup as you can hope for in these parts for spring, let alone this time of year. The temp at DCA went from 59 at 7am to 71 at 11am. That's some serious warm air advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 The biggest thing for me is lightning and thunder. Lemme see some of that and we can chalk this up as a W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: The biggest thing for me is lightning and thunder. Lemme see some of that and we can chalk this up as a W. HRRR lightning signal looks pretty solid. The HRRR overall is pretty interesting. It has more of a broken squall line look with some embedded "interesting" cells. As others have noted, while the location jumps, most runs have some nice updraft helicity signals. Kinda think that the TOR threat is somewhat low due to higher LCLs, but a few supercells dropping big hail could be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, high risk said: HRRR lightning signal looks pretty solid. The HRRR overall is pretty interesting. It has more of a broken squall line look with some embedded "interesting" cells. As others have noted, while the location jumps, most runs have some nice updraft helicity signals. Kinda think that the TOR threat is somewhat low due to higher LCLs, but a few supercells dropping big hail could be in play. Curious, how do you know the lightning signal is good? What should I be looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Curious, how do you know the lightning signal is good? What should I be looking at? go to the mag.ncep.noaa.gov page and select HRRR and then EAST-US. There's a lightning parameter which is a flash rate. Anything above the lightest shading of blue generally correlates well with a threat for lightning and thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 What happened to the line? Thought that was supposed to be what gets us. Pop ups now?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Mid-afternoon still looks like the time frame for some gusty showers and maybe a bit more. Lookin' good so far. Cool, thanks. At a kids party and have another from 1-3 so only checking occasionally Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, high risk said: HRRR lightning signal looks pretty solid. The HRRR overall is pretty interesting. It has more of a broken squall line look with some embedded "interesting" cells. As others have noted, while the location jumps, most runs have some nice updraft helicity signals. Kinda think that the TOR threat is somewhat low due to higher LCLs, but a few supercells dropping big hail could be in play. Thinking at the start of the supercells, if any, may drop a tor or two early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 It's getting sunny in NE Anne Arundel Co... How dependent are we on some sunshine in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Last HRRR at 18zThanks! Looks goodSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: It's getting sunny in NE Anne Arundel Co... How dependent are we on some sunshine in this setup? We are essentially always (save for maybe 1% of events) pretty dependent on sunshine to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Clouds are back. Wouldn't mind some boomers but I'm not really feeling lucky today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 MD issued to our north... 40% chance of a watch up there... i am guessing we should get one within the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 I'm assuming this is what we should be watching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Been sunny all morning here. Pretty breezy too. Current temp is 74, dp 62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Very interesting MD for our area... 60% chance of a watchbox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 251724Z - 251930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF IT IS CLEAR STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. DISCUSSION...RAPID SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM NORTHWESTERN VA INTO WESTERN NC AS OF 17Z. DEWPOINTS WERE HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUGGESTING A WELL-MIXED AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE FRONT, AND A GENERAL UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. BY 18-19Z, SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS FAVORING LONG-LIVED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF CELLS OR SMALL BOWS. THE COLD AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WOULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF HAIL. HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY WARM LAYER EXISTS ABOVE 700 MB, AND UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE. AS A RESULT OF THIS WARM LAYER, STORMS MAY BE SLOW TO BECOME SEVERE, BUT WITH TIME, LONG-ACTING SHEAR MAY OVERCOME THIS, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN VA INTO MD, AND NORTHEASTERN NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO. ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD REMAIN CELLULAR, AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS IN THE SUFFICIENT CATEGORY WITH 0-1 SRH NEAR 100 M2/S2, STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE A DETRIMENT, AS WILL BE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT HAMPERING VERTICAL UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS IN THE LOWER PARTS OF THE STORM. ..JEWELL/HART.. 02/25/2017 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Hmmm... @janetjanet998 posting in our thread... must be good news severe wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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