PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 12 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Worst wx month in the history of our region. I disagree- if it's not gonna snow, a record breaking megatorch is the next best thing. This is actually increasing my rating for the winter. Worst winter month is cold and dry, or 40's and rain all month- something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 50 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: My neighbor's weeping cherry tree is in full bloom this morning, and the weeping willow behind my house is leafing. I expect to see a bunch more ornamental fruit trees in my hood in full bloom when I get home this evening. Yup. Their goes the peach crop again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 25 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Yup. Their goes the peach crop again this year. Assuming it gets cold again. I wouldn't go very far out on that limb. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Moved from a window? There's only one logical assumption about your next forced "move." Hah, no, not like that. My office opened a new wing of the building so they rearranged all the different projects to be co-located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 10 hours ago, high risk said: The low-level shear will be fairly strong, so one certainly can't rule out embedded supercells in a QLCS-type structure, but this area usually ends up with a standard squall line in these strongly-forced scenarios. 12z NAM looks overdone re SBCAPE/MLCAPE for the area... SBCAPE around 1500 and MLCAPE over 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Insanely amazing outside today. Daffodils blooming at SHA ops center near BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Can we hit 80 today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 12z GFS sounding at DCA for 18z SAT suggests low risk of a tornado or two IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Early cherries blooming everywhere in DC, and this morning I saw daffodils in full bloom in a number of places around the mall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 12z NAM sounding at KDCA for 18z SAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 Amount of dew on my car reminded me of a humid day in June. Tree buds open along the BW parkway for a few trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 17 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z NAM sounding at KDCA for 18z SAT wow, that's quite a instability/shear combo. The inferred watch box based on those parameters is tornado, with good reason (although I would still argue that discrete development seems less likely). I agree that the lapse rates seem a bit generous leading to higher cape, but even if you chop that down, it's still a good environment. Based on the forecasted environmental parameters and reflectivity forecasts from the hi-res guidance, I would expect us to be placed in slight risk for the new SPC Day2. If they don't, I think we'll get there in the day1 outlooks tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 30 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Can we hit 80 today? I think there's a good chance BWI will get it. Not sure about the other airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 12z 4KM NAM sounding at 19z SAT for DCA... ML Lapse Rates look a lil too extreme for us... 7.6 C/KM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 New Day 2 leaves us in MRGL... but suggests upgrade possible to SLGT in Day 1 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: NAM Gone Wild Liking 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 18z NAM at 18z SAT for just south of DCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 We're into RAP range now for the Saturday instability forecast, and it shows 1000-1500 sfc-based cape here by late Saturday morning, so the NAM idea of 1500+ by early afternoon may not be totally far-fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, high risk said: We're into RAP range now for the Saturday instability forecast, and it shows 1000-1500 sfc-based cape here by late Saturday morning, so the NAM idea of 1500+ by early afternoon may not be totally far-fetched. 18z NAM (see image above) seems to agree... it also seems to want to zone in on the DCA-EZF area for the highest sup/tor potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 high of 74 before some ESE winds off the bay dropped my temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Looking at this evening's reflectivity forecasts from the HRRR and ops and para NAM nests, along with the forecasted environmental parameters, having slight risk for Saturday seems like a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, high risk said: Looking at this evening's reflectivity forecasts from the HRRR and ops and para NAM nests, along with the forecasted environmental parameters, having slight risk for Saturday seems like a lock. I am guessing it's more for damaging winds, but I could see a few large hail reports with mid level lapse rates close to 7.0 C/KM. Also, I wouldn't rule out a tornado or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I am guessing it's more for damaging winds, but I could see a few large hail reports with mid level lapse rates close to 7.0 C/KM. Also, I wouldn't rule out a tornado or two I agree with this. The shear would support a modest tornado threat, and maybe there can be a QLCS-type spinup, but it's going to be really tough to get discrete cells tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 1 hour ago, high risk said: I agree with this. The shear would support a modest tornado threat, and maybe there can be a QLCS-type spinup, but it's going to be really tough to get discrete cells tomorrow. 00z 4km NAM sounding just SW of DCA in Fairfax County is rockin' and rolling Notice the mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 03z RAP gets close to 1000 SBCAPE into the DCA region by 16z today... and up to 1500 by 17z/18z... also decent below for Feb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Can't wait for the first CAPE watch of the year. Ready for the first MD Watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Slight risk posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 Was reading AFD this morning and it noted that DCA is currently sitting at the driest Feb on record. Also, IAD is set to easily break the warmest Feb and likely the warmest winter on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Was reading AFD this morning and it noted that DCA is currently sitting at the driest Feb on record. Also, IAD is set to easily break the warmest Feb and likely the warmest winter on record. I don't have time to look but my guess is that, unlike this year, in past years when February was comparatively dry, it was cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Foggy spring morning. Silver maple buds are open in my front yard. Usually a late march or early April tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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