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12 hours ago, yoda said:

00z NAM decent... maybe an isolated weak spin up with okay SRH?

     maybe.   I think that a fast-moving line with some wind damage potential is the main threat.   Height falls look good Saturday afternoon.   Would like to see the front be a tad slower than progged by NAM, but the cape/shear combo as progged now would probably work.

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1 hour ago, high risk said:

     maybe.   I think that a fast-moving line with some wind damage potential is the main threat.   Height falls look good Saturday afternoon.   Would like to see the front be a tad slower than progged by NAM, but the cape/shear combo as progged now would probably work.

12z GFS sounding at 18z SAT for KDCA is nice for February... damaging wind threat of course, but CAPE is approaching 1000 with 0-6km shear around 50 kts

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1 hour ago, high risk said:

3 KM NAM nest (which will replace the 4km NAM nest in a few weeks) has a thin but fairly good looking line moving through early Saturday afternoon

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_44.png

My mom keeps mentioning how she's reading about tornadoes on Saturday but that looks much more like a plain straight-line wind threat.

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7 minutes ago, Tater Tot said:

My mom keeps mentioning how she's reading about tornadoes on Saturday but that looks much more like a plain straight-line wind threat.

           The low-level shear will be fairly strong, so one certainly can't rule out embedded supercells in a QLCS-type structure, but this area usually ends up with a standard squall line in these strongly-forced scenarios.

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