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February banter thread

Eskimo Joe

By Eskimo Joe,
in Mid Atlantic

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It felt really good to go mostly off the grid. I spent hours yesterday as the only person in sight on untouched trails. No music, no people, just the sound of wind and snow. I fell into a snow hole greater than 3', but this was the best snow depth I could measure.

IMG_7457.JPG

 

Did BigFoot build that building in the background.

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SomeguyfromTakomaPark

SomeguyfromTakomaPark

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I was wondering when someone would comment on that :lol: 

I wasn't out in the forest lol. These were trails that aren't maintained in the winter. 

There were no people or Bigfoot sightings.

Did you ski or snowshoe?  I've done some snowshoeing and backcountry skiing trips where I've broken trail through like 2-3 feet of snow.  It's fun and exhausting. 

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If you wanna torture yourselves, look at the 18z NAM 500 vort map at 18-24.  Trended sharper, but it still won't help us..we just need another 300 miles west and 300 miles south!!!!!!

Is that a squall line modeled to form over the open Atlantic?...wth!

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Ok so let's say a miracle happens and the pattern goes nuts in March. How much snow would it take to say A) that was awesome or B ) ok that wasn't so bad after all when looking back 10 years from now  

You can split up the snow anyways you want meaning if you say 20" it can come in two 10" storms or one 20"er or four 5s. And don't feel constrained by realistic expectations since this ain't happening. 

Keep in mind mine is biased by local climo 

A: 30" one 20" wet snow dump and 10" spread however. 

B: 15" spread however so long as one is 6"+

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok so let's say a miracle happens and the pattern goes nuts in March. How much snow would it take to say A) that was awesome or B ) ok that wasn't so bad after all when looking back 10 years from now  

You can split up the snow anyways you want meaning if you say 20" it can come in two 10" storms or one 20"er or four 5s. And don't feel constrained by realistic expectations since this ain't happening. 

Keep in mind mine is biased by local climo 

A: 30" one 20" wet snow dump and 10" spread however. 

B: 15" spread however so long as one is 6"+

For me, it would take what I described in this post to reach B. Or a March 1993 redux.

On 2/12/2017 at 7:30 PM, Fozz said:

I can get over the lunch melting, but what I really want to see is a storm with heavy rain changing over to heavy snow with crashing temps and a good plastering of 8"+ of wet snow that sticks to all the trees and everything it can touch, preferably during the day.

I know that's a lot to ask for, and it's basically what March 2013 could've been, but that's what I want more than anything else. A HECS with cold powder would be cool, but I've been there, done that.

To reach A, it would take a March 1958 storm (importantly, one in which I'm on the good side of the rain/snow line and my elevation is enough), or a HECS version of March 1993 where my backyard gets 20"+.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok so let's say a miracle happens and the pattern goes nuts in March. How much snow would it take to say A) that was awesome or B ) ok that wasn't so bad after all when looking back 10 years from now  

You can split up the snow anyways you want meaning if you say 20" it can come in two 10" storms or one 20"er or four 5s. And don't feel constrained by realistic expectations since this ain't happening. 

Keep in mind mine is biased by local climo 

A: 30" one 20" wet snow dump and 10" spread however. 

B: 15" spread however so long as one is 6"+

4 5's would get me to a grade of C.

A March '93 would get me to a C.

Both would get me to a B.

Right now, I'd give it a G if it was on the grading scale.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok so let's say a miracle happens and the pattern goes nuts in March. How much snow would it take to say A) that was awesome or B ) ok that wasn't so bad after all when looking back 10 years from now  

You can split up the snow anyways you want meaning if you say 20" it can come in two 10" storms or one 20"er or four 5s. And don't feel constrained by realistic expectations since this ain't happening. 

Keep in mind mine is biased by local climo 

A: 30" one 20" wet snow dump and 10" spread however. 

B: 15" spread however so long as one is 6"+

I really don't think "awesome" is even possible at this point. However, a week of well below avg cold with a 6" storm, and with snow cover for at least 3 days, would pull this winter into "meh, not awful" category. Pretty low bar but just being realistic, and I have had almost 8" here this winter. Otherwise a 12" wet snow paste job, even if its 55 degrees by noon the following day, would also do the trick.

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Dan76

Dan76

Posted
Posted

They need Jeb lol  

 

Tonight
Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 22. Wind chill values between 1 and 6. Windy, with a south southwest wind 29 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to near 24 by 10am, then falling to around 18 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values between -4 and 6. Windy, with a south southwest wind 32 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 9. Wind chill values between -8 and -18. Windy, with a south southwest wind 43 to 55 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow showers. High near 12. Windy, with a southwest wind 31 to 36 mph decreasing to 24 to 29 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.
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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

They need Jeb lol  

 

Tonight
Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Steady temperature around 22. Wind chill values between 1 and 6. Windy, with a south southwest wind 29 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to near 24 by 10am, then falling to around 18 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values between -4 and 6. Windy, with a south southwest wind 32 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 9. Wind chill values between -8 and -18. Windy, with a south southwest wind 43 to 55 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow showers. High near 12. Windy, with a southwest wind 31 to 36 mph decreasing to 24 to 29 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Potential of 123" of snow in 48 hours and somebody had the nads to say "snow may be heavy at times" :lol: 

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok so let's say a miracle happens and the pattern goes nuts in March. How much snow would it take to say A) that was awesome or B ) ok that wasn't so bad after all when looking back 10 years from now  

You can split up the snow anyways you want meaning if you say 20" it can come in two 10" storms or one 20"er or four 5s. And don't feel constrained by realistic expectations since this ain't happening. 

Keep in mind mine is biased by local climo 

A: 30" one 20" wet snow dump and 10" spread however. 

B: 15" spread however so long as one is 6"+

For "ok that wasn't so bad," I would need an early March 6"+ cold storm in the style of 3/15 or 3/09 and at least a 4" precip bomb (~1" precip or more) later in the month that accumulates on the roads. That would earn a D+/C- for the season. 

For "that was awesome," I'd need a slightly colder 3/93 blizzard (to go from 13.5" to 18" for me), plus an 8" cold snow like 3/99, and one more 4"+ road accumulating event. And all that snow has to mean snow cover for at least 15 days in the month. That would earn a B for the season, but an A+ for the month of March. 

 

In another thread, I graded each of the last 30 seasons for my two locations (Potomac and North Bethesda, MD):

09/10= A+

 

95/96= A

02/03= A

 

13/14= A- 

 

86/87= B+

14/15= B+

 

92/93= B

93/94= B

15/16= B

 

87/88= C+

99/00= C+

 

98/99= C

04/05= C

05/06= C

06/07= C

 

89/90= C-

03/04= C-

10/11= C-

 

90/91= D+

94/95= D+

 

96/97= D

 

88/89= D-

00/01= D-

07/08= D-

08/09= D-

12/13= D-

 

97/98= F

01/02= F

11/12= F

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

For "ok that wasn't so bad," I would need an early March 6"+ cold storm in the style of 3/15 or 3/09 and at least a 4" precip bomb (~1" precip or more) later in the month that accumulates on the roads. That would earn a D+/C- for the season. 

For "that was awesome," I'd need a slightly colder 3/93 blizzard (to go from 13.5" to 18" for me), plus an 8" cold snow like 3/99, and one more 4"+ road accumulating event. And all that snow has to mean snow cover for at least 15 days in the month. That would earn a B for the season, but an A+ for the month of March. 

 

In another thread, I graded each of the last 30 seasons for my two locations (Potomac and North Bethesda, MD):

09/10= A+

 

95/96= A

02/03= A

 

13/14= A- 

 

86/87= B+

14/15= B+

 

92/93= B

93/94= B

15/16= B

 

87/88= C+

99/00= C+

 

98/99= C

04/05= C

05/06= C

06/07= C

 

89/90= C-

03/04= C-

10/11= C-

 

90/91= D+

94/95= D+

 

96/97= D

 

88/89= D-

00/01= D-

07/08= D-

08/09= D-

12/13= D-

 

97/98= F

01/02= F

11/12= F

I would hate you as my professor!

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was talking about last year

I remember how that one thread of picking the favorite winter from 13/14, 14/15, or 15/16 basically turned into a "don't tell me how to think" thread. 

I totally get your perspective about how last winter sucked. 

My thing with snow is this: I appreciate it for all the aspects that everyone else appreciates it, but the most important reason that I love snow is that it disrupts the normal schedule. It covers over roads and forces people to take a break. That's why I always value impact more than the actual total. There are many ways to measure impact, but one of the most straight-forward ways is just to total snow days for both kids and adults. So, that would be days off from school and government closings.

On that measure, last season was in the top tier. 7 snow days for me and 6 snow days for students (1/22/16 was a teacher grading day), plus 2 Federal Government closing days is high up on the list for impact. The only winters in the past thirty to have more Montgomery County Public School snow days are: 

11 days- 93/94

10 days- 13/14, 02/03

9 days- 09/10, 95/96

 

The 7 snow-caused work closings could have been spread out much better than last winter, for sure. But just that I got 6 work days off in 1/16, added in one more day in 2/16, and experienced my all-time biggest single storm made last winter decent. 

 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, stormtracker said:

A march '93 but with the storm track 75 miles east would do just nicely.  

I would say 40-50 miles. Get those crazy 5"/hr rates  and 20-25" totals that blasted up 81 into the 95 corridor. Further west got huge totals but it was upslope enhanced and they didn't have the crazy convective bands of snow that set up just west of the cities. 

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

I don't think there's much redeeming a winter like this one with March snow alone. The only way is if we were to get upwards of 30" of cold snow spread out over a couple weeks. Something like:

  • Day 1: 4"
  • Day 5: 15"
  • Day 8: 3"
  • Day 12: 2"
  • Day 16: 8"
  • Day 19: Torch

Incredibly unrealistic, which basically means that there's no redeeming this winter. Even then, it would be incredibly frustrating to get into March and have to deal with extended cold, then the awfulness that would be the melt after the snowy period.

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