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February banter thread

Eskimo Joe

By Eskimo Joe,
in Mid Atlantic

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm starting to think mitch thinks it will be too warm in the short, med, long, and super long range. 

I'm guessing that means July will totally suck.  A repeat of the equivalent of last December's +11.5 should push us to an average high of near 100 in July I'd think!  No problem...just means more beer needed for softball! :lol:

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm starting to think mitch thinks it will be too warm in the short, med, long, and super long range. 

His skepticism is warranted but eventually the pattern will flip.  Technically it already has.  He did this in 2015 insisting we wouldn't see any significant snow because of seasonal persistence. That works sometimes and others it doesn't. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

His skepticism is warranted but eventually the pattern will flip.  Technically it already has.  He did this in 2015 insisting we wouldn't see any significant snow because of seasonal persistence. That works sometimes and others it doesn't. 

Exactly when and where in 2015 because I nailed the change at the start of 2/15. Link me.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

His skepticism is warranted but eventually the pattern will flip.  Technically it already has.  He did this in 2015 insisting we wouldn't see any significant snow because of seasonal persistence. That works sometimes and others it doesn't. 

 

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Exactly when and where in 2015 because I nailed the change at the start of 2/15. Link me.

Here's the link. And I got a lot of skepticism in this thread, so I don't know wtf you're referring to. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/45651-mid-feb-through-march-threatssnow-storms/?page=1

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

You want snow? There has been 30 inches since Friday about 50 miles east of my location (about 20 miles north of Mount Baker, WA but in southern BC). I've had about 10 inches and it's still snowing hard now. Very unusual for this location. I guess this is basically the energy for the potential Thursday snowfall event coming through on the Pacific conveyor belt. Probably the low center in Idaho is the actual vortmax to be tracked. But it's all glommed together in one mega-snowfall across the region.

Everyone around here has had enough (probably similar to cities in NC or GA, we are not totally geared up for snow clearing although inland they are), we normally just drive into the mountains if we want snow. Most years there would be maybe one or two snow days and a total of 5-8 inches from those. This winter, I think we are now past 40 here and in the Fraser valley they are closing in on 100 inches for the season. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Exactly when and where in 2015 because I nailed the change at the start of 2/15. Link me.

I am not sure how to link old posts but they are in the February mid to long range thread from 2015 mostly pages 35-40...

on Feb 2 1015 you said

" the pattern can be as ripe as it wants, but some years it just doesn't snow here of any consequence and this one has all those earmarks "

On Feb 3 you said

" In retrospect, we needed the thaw to reshuffle the deck. No thaw, and it's the same old pattern. I'm thinking BWI stays single digits for snow this year. Change the pattern, and it's another story. But we are running out of time for that. March fluke? I see that as our only shot. But if it ain't gunna' snow, I see no reason to pay Constellation Energy all that money to warm my cold, dry house. "

" there's your new pattern psuhoffman....just what we had yesterday "

There were others but I don't feel like spending more time digging.  We had this conversation that year.  It wasn't a big deal and an amicable disagreement on the potential going into the second half of snow climo that year.  That year I turned out to be right, doesn't mean you aren't correct about there being some seasonal persistence.  This year that might work.  But it doesn't always.  I even posted that year about all the examples.  I know here in 1925 we had even less snow then right now at this point and ended up with almost 60".  There were several other late turnarounds.  I am not saying to buy that is coming this time but its not impossible.  And I was not implying you were out of line in 2015 or the discussion was anything more then it was, and I am not discounting your points, they have validity, but you did take a similar tone around this time of year then also.  You did later change your tune when things started to turn around mid month.  I am not trying to start a fight.  Your contributions are quality and valuable.  We have different methodology about seasonal persistence that's all. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not sure how to link old posts but they are in the February mid to long range thread from 2015 mostly pages 35-40...

on Feb 2 1015 you said

" the pattern can be as ripe as it wants, but some years it just doesn't snow here of any consequence and this one has all those earmarks "

On Feb 3 you said

" In retrospect, we needed the thaw to reshuffle the deck. No thaw, and it's the same old pattern. I'm thinking BWI stays single digits for snow this year. Change the pattern, and it's another story. But we are running out of time for that. March fluke? I see that as our only shot. But if it ain't gunna' snow, I see no reason to pay Constellation Energy all that money to warm my cold, dry house. "

" there's your new pattern psuhoffman....just what we had yesterday "

There were others but I don't feel like spending more time digging.  We had this conversation that year.  It wasn't a big deal and an amicable disagreement on the potential going into the second half of snow climo that year.  That year I turned out to be right, doesn't mean you aren't correct about there being some seasonal persistence.  This year that might work.  But it doesn't always.  I even posted that year about all the examples.  I know here in 1925 we had even less snow then right now at this point and ended up with almost 60".  There were several other late turnarounds.  I am not saying to buy that is coming this time but its not impossible.  And I was not implying you were out of line in 2015 or the discussion was anything more then it was, and I am not discounting your points, they have validity, but you did take a similar tone around this time of year then also.  You did later change your tune when things started to turn around mid month.  I am not trying to start a fight.  Your contributions are quality and valuable.  We have different methodology about seasonal persistence that's all. 

And on 2/8 I said the pattern would change and I nailed it a week before our first snow on 2/14. So up to that point, including the posts you listed, my skepticism was right on. When I saw a change,  I made the new thread. If you want to argue otherwise,  knock yourself out, but when I saw a change, I was right and no delays. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And on 2/8 I said the pattern would change and I nailed it a week before our first snow on 2/14. So up to that point, including the posts you listed, my skepticism was right on. When I saw a change,  I made the new thread. If you want to argue otherwise,  knock yourself out, but when I saw a change, I was right and no delays. 

I'm not taking away that "win" from your record. It's 2 years ago I honestly don't remember every post. But I did remember that in early feb that year there were several people, you among them, arguing that we were unlikely to get any significant snow because of seasonal persistence. I don't want to replay a 2 year old debate.  Your feb 8 call was good. Not sure what that has to do with a discussion we had a week earlier though. My statement was true. I am curious though what you don't see now that you want too?  If it's just skepticism because of the season trend to tease us that's logical. But the gefs and EPS at the end of week 2 is setting up a money look. So is there something your not seeing in the guidance yet or simply doubting it?  

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

WE ARE going to get snow this month, Feb 2017.

All it is going to take, is a little Patience.

Washington DC is a SNOWTOWN.

 

Due to the antecedent mild weather expected tomorrow.......................................I am willing to take one for the team. Give me cold rain, and give Springfield and north 8 inches or more of heavy snow Wed night/Thursday morning.

I am NOT jumping. Look - I NEVER LOSE HOPE. I KNOW without a doubt, that I LIVE IN A SNOW TOWN. We ARE gonna get snow, but if it will help out, I'll take rain if Springfield and north get heavy accumulating snow. I already got 3 inches in different storms this winter. We got ppl N/NW of me who have been shafted so far.

I'm The Jebman, and I say its gonna SNOW!

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted

I do admit weenies here are funny in what they want to see

 

Red taggers: its gonna be super warm prior to the snow and everyone is hoping enough cold air comes in to go from 60s to 30 to get snow in only 12-18 hrs.  Thermals are an issue all along I95.  This storm will be tricky to say the least.

 

Weenies: Models show blobby stuff and 32F line is close enough!!!  That means snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, nj2va said:

@mattie g is going to lose his mind when the York, pa blizzard guy stops by to post pictures of heavy snow and 5" on the ground as he's sitting under drizzle/light rain.  ;)

And when he gets called out, he'll claim he posts all year round and isn't just whipping out his AK on a drive-by.

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