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Jan 31 st/Feb 1st Clipper Obs


Baroclinic Zone

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19 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

reported 1.8" to ALY from 5 o'clock board clearing... hoping second wave evens out what the South got today with the first wave...we shall see, need more than 3 to justify snowblower, more like a leaf blower cleaning here...

N CT is in for sneaky surprise overnight . Can kind of see it setting up

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

N CT is in for sneaky surprise overnight . Can kind of see it setting up

It's too early to see the IVT setting up...that really doesn't happen until pretty late...like 06z or later. But there is another round of precip that develops anyway before that from the 2nd vort energy max coming east.

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22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'd rather meh my way an over-performer than be overly optimistic and bust low.  And yeah, I busted on this one.  Expected 1-2".

Yeah... everyone is mocking me, and I guess I may be due for that given I ended up in a local max area.

However, I don't think those calling for low numbers for the majority were really that wrong. Most people got 1-2" and some people got 3"... maybe some places add a bit more later... but overall... I don't think this was really a positive bust.

 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's too early to see the IVT setting up...that really doesn't happen until pretty late...like 06z or later. But there is another round of precip that develops anyway before that from the 2nd vort energy max coming east.

Yeah I don't really mean the Norlun. But you can see that energy over PA sort of blossoming radar later from about DXR HVN north

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The models actually did a good job with the initial stuff. Did well with the sharp cutoff too. You could even see it with the soundings where near Boston on north had subsidence below 850 while south actually had some omega in lower levels allowing for better saturation. The lack of good 850 and 700 inflow and more of an east-west conv area along the 850-700 front kept the band down south.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

The models actually did a good job with the initial stuff. Did well with the sharp cutoff too. You could even see it with the soundings where near Boston on north had subsidence below 850 while south actually had some omega in lower levels allowing for better saturation. The lack of good 850 and 700 inflow and more of an east-west conv area along the 850-700 front kept the band down south.

Dewpoints near 0 up here didn't help either.

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah... everyone is mocking me, and I guess I may be due for that given I ended up in a local max area.

However, I don't think those calling for low numbers for the majority were really that wrong. Most people got 1-2" and some people got 3"... maybe some places add a bit more later... but overall... I don't think this was really a positive bust.

 

Especially when 30dbz echoes means radar looks like crap. I'd love to know what a good radar image looks to you.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Especially when 30dbz echoes means radar looks like crap. I'd love to know what a good radar image looks to you.

I looked to the west and it looked pretty shredded to me... but it was obvious after you pointed it out that I was looking in the wrong place. We ended up getting a nice burst of heavy snow... I have no problem admitting I messed up on that.. I'll own it... part of the learning process 

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There's some weak LL convergence for most of the evening, so it won't be surprising if the short term guidance underestimates the precip a little...and we see areas blossom from time to time before the last main push arrives later tonight.

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