CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah H5 gets frigid while BL is briefly torching (relatively speaking). I don't see an organized windex event...but it could be those cellular snow showers with a brief S+ burst. That's what it seems like...cellular crap as it gets conv looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Soundings are better than scrolls, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Soundings are better than scrolls, Steve. ? you mean the two soundings I posted, please enlighten me, what are the lapse rates in Ct Wed afternoon ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: ? you mean the two soundings I posted, please enlighten me, what are the lapse rates in Ct Wed afternoon ? For visuals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 This is fun, keep it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: ? you mean the two soundings I posted, please enlighten me, what are the lapse rates in Ct Wed afternoon ? That's pretty damned steep from sfc to like 600. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: For visuals. Would help if you backed up stuff with some facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 TTs tickle 50 up here 00z Thu (Wed eve)...mid-level lapse rates around 6.5C/km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That's pretty damned steep from sfc to like 600. Will Total Totals Index: 39.44 700-500 lapse rate: 3.92 C/km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Would love to learn more about lapse rates and what is rewuired for steep but dont want to clog thread up as a learning tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Soundings are better than scrolls, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Would help if you backed up stuff with some facts Look for yourself. Plenty of sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Will 700-500 lapse rate: 3.92 C/km Inversion there around H6. It's pretty steep up to that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: TTs tickle 50 up here 00z Wed...mid-level lapse rates around 6.5C/km Yea thats what we have Tues afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Will Total Totals Index: 39.44 700-500 lapse rate: 3.92 C/km This isn't summer where we're looking for EMLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Will 700-500 lapse rate: 3.92 C/km Thats like graupel type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah not bad. Ray won't like it though. I have low expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Will 700-500 lapse rate: 3.92 C/km For SNSH/squalls, you want to look below that layer...the original WINDEX checklist looks at lower level instability...it was originally the T1 to T5 layers which went up to roughly 750-800mb. Now we are a little more advanced than using old FOUS output, but you still are interested in the lower level instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 yeah the TTs aren't as impressive with the inversion around 600 mb .. but remember how TTs are calculated: TT = (T850 - T500) + (Td850 - T500) of course that inversion skews the TT values .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This isn't summer where we're looking for EMLs. Congrats on the mid level clouds , if we get a windex squall with steep lapse rates Wed afternoon I would bow to Hayden. You never back anything up with facts like you used to, just spout out stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ma blizzard said: yeah the TTs aren't as impressive with the inversion around 600 mb .. but remember how TTs are calculated: TT = (T850 - T500) + (Td850 - T500) of course that inversion skews the TT values .. We're also not saturated very well...if we had near 100% RH in the lower levels, the TTs would be more impressive like in some of those steroid windex events ala 1/28/10. But TTs are really only the thunder aspect of windex squalls...you can have good windex events with TTs that aren't amazing. Of course, it's a lot more fun to have them off the charts, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: yeah the TTs aren't as impressive with the inversion around 600 mb .. but remember how TTs are calculated: TT = (T850 - T500) + (Td850 - T500) of course that inversion skews the TT values .. 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For SNSH/squalls, you want to look below that layer...the original WINDEX checklist looks at lower level instability...it was originally the T1 to T5 layers which went up to roughly 750-800mb. Now we are a little more advanced than using old FOUS output, but you still are interested in the lower level instability. Of course but lets get this correct and back up to Haydens assertion. Steep lapse rates and heavy Arctic squalls Wed afternoon in CT. I see no indications on any modeling to back up that assertion, and where is the Arctic boundary Wed afternoon you may ask your self Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're also not saturated very well...if we had near 100% RH in the lower levels, the TTs would be more impressive like in some of those steroid windex events ala 1/28/10. But TTs are really only the thunder aspect of windex squalls...you can have good windex events with TTs that aren't amazing. Of course, it's a lot more fun to have them off the charts, lol. Yeah...I mean I've had whiteouts here under the radar beam with nothing showing up at all. Those SHSN don't really care too much about the H5 temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Of course but lets get this correct and back up to Haydens assertion. Steep lapse rates and heavy Arctic squalls Wed afternoon in CT. I see no indications on any modeling to back up that assertion, and where is the Arctic boundary Wed afternoon you may ask your self Heavy arctic squalls might be a stretch, I agree, but steep lapse rates are absolutely present...I just posted a sounding that has very steep lapse rates. I agree the arctic boundary isn't really very sharp and more like this diffuse thing over a swath north of us...I think that is a limiting factor because we aren't getting a big lifting mechanism. But some brief SNSH are certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Heavy arctic squalls might be a stretch, I agree, but steep lapse rates are absolutely present...I just posted a sounding that has very steep lapse rates. I agree the arctic boundary isn't really very sharp and more like this diffuse thing over a swath north of us...I think that is a limiting factor because we aren't getting a big lifting mechanism. But some brief SNSH are certainly possible. Now that is reasonable but I doubt it with RH so low and BL temps in the 40's if they do occur they would be melting on contact ( we are talking about Ct). I see the NORH Dendrite land having a better shot, some of that is in his FA so maybe that is where he is referring to . IDK Thanks for the interaction , appreciate it, Potshot Scooter sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Mid levels amped up on the 18z NAM. QPF should increase this run. H5 shortwave is kinked up and perhaps tilting negatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 NAM has thunderstorms erupt along the developing surface low's cold front as it develops south of LI. If this development happens sooner, just a tad earlier than the storm will produce 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Storms will erupt along that front as the shortwave moves through with a negative tilting trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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