TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly could be some 4-6 " amounts with this. Fluff it I think that's optimistic. Maybe someone scores a 3" amount. 4" at the most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Some people will get over 4" unless the models completely fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Reminds me of a clipper either last year or the year before where Ryan had 28-1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 Snow advisories should be up with PM afd. And some small area will be upgraded to WSW after the snow is well underway. You can already envision it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Cobb for BDL 170131/1900Z 31 12005KT 24.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 14:1| 0.2| 170131/2000Z 32 11005KT 24.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 14:1| 0.9| 170131/2100Z 33 08006KT 24.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 14:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100 170131/2200Z 34 07005KT 24.9F SNOW 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 14:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 170131/2300Z 35 06005KT 25.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038 13:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 170201/0000Z 36 05005KT 25.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 12:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 170201/0100Z 37 04004KT 25.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 170201/0200Z 38 05003KT 25.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 12:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 170201/0300Z 39 06003KT 25.6F SNOW 15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 12:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Some people will get over 4" unless the models completely fail. Yeah I'd be shocked if there weren't a few 4"+ lollis because someone is gonna get 0.25 of liquid and these ratios will be better than 15 to 1 probably...esp in any heavier bands with snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Snow advisories should be up with PM afd. And some small area will be upgraded to WSW after the snow is well underway. You can already envision it. Be the future my friend. Tell us. Looks good for the state, I recall a clipper from 2015 that snuck up a bit and wrecked havoc during evening rush. Feeling something similar may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Be the future my friend. Tell us. Looks good for the state, I recall a clipper from 2015 that snuck up a bit and wrecked havoc during evening rush. Feeling something similar may occur. I want something like that freak snow event in March '13 that ran north/south along the I91 corridor. Came out of nowhere and dropped a quick 4-5" and caused absolute chaos. I'd wager that one had Ryan scratching his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I mentioned this late last evening ...the (then) NAM solution had a bit of a Norlund look to it. Truth be told ...it's been in the cycles for a long time. I just think it worth noting. The idea of lower level pressure falls and convergence is present in many guidance. The NAM even weakly closes isobars near the Mass borders with NH/VT. The cause for the surface trough appears to be in the particularly handling of mid level wavy dynamics. 24 or more straight hours of jet max ripping by to our south as others have noted. The equations of motion dictate that there should be a tendency for the flow to curl back east immediately on the polarward side of said channel of higher velocities aloft. That cyclonic tendency imparts a steady upward motion (UVM, -omega...etc..); and, that requires lowering pressure near the surface up underneath the axis of rising air above. That convergence/pooling of moisture then forced to rise results in cloud and such. Particularly because SNE sticks out over the ocean ... that convergence may include air source that is conditionally saturated... snow growth happens probably lower than the typical region of the sounding (700mb). When this sort of pattern sets up...surprises can result. I don't think very many IVT/"Norlund" type scenarios do very well to predict the actual extent of snow fall that has resulted. It's just something to keep in mind. Also, keeping in mind that while flakes should be in the air for just about everyone in SNE at some point or the other ... if/when Norlund destines to over produce, history has shown that tends to take place in narrow bands close to the surface axis of convergence. It would be inherently difficult for the models to know where that axis will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I'm expecting an inch max here in the Hudson Valley where clippers tease us as the best dynamics usually leap over us. They underperform more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: I want something like that freak snow event in March '13 that ran north/south along the I91 corridor. Came out of nowhere and dropped a quick 4-5" and caused absolute chaos. I'd wager that one had Ryan scratching his head. I missed 2013 feb and march here, i know.....that haunts me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 16 minutes ago, Hoth said: I want something like that freak snow event in March '13 that ran north/south along the I91 corridor. Came out of nowhere and dropped a quick 4-5" and caused absolute chaos. I'd wager that one had Ryan scratching his head. Worst morning ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd be shocked if there weren't a few 4"+ lollis because someone is gonna get 0.25 of liquid and these ratios will be better than 15 to 1 probably...esp in any heavier bands with snow growth. Yeah agreed. Probably all over New England. This type of QPF possibility with that thermal profile will be a nice little event. One of those where even like SVT up to Killington/Ludlow area could grab a 6-8" of fluff with that SE flow upglide into those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: Worst morning ever. Mar' '13? what event was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Mar' '13? what event was that? Want to say it was like March 30 or 31st? Just a weird north/south oriented band that set up over I91 from Hartford to New Haven and caused chaos. I was driving back to Boston in it and was both weenieing out and freaking over the road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I remember that event. It flashed over to S+ on the 91 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Uh oh. Will is slippin' in his old age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Actually, Ryan has a blog post about it: http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/2014/04/01/mondays-surprise-snowstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 12z GGEM was rather meager in the output department. Did not look at upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Uh oh. Will is slippin' in his old age. I don't ever recall Will not knowing an event! The world has spun off its axis I'm guessing because it happened in 2014...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 It's only because it just missed NYC with surprise snow and I remember breathing a sign of relief....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Its because you guys tricked him into Mar 13 not 14...so Will was right thinking "what event, that didnt happen in March '13" haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Canadian reversed the trend and actually got a bit flatter from 00z at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Mar' '13? what event was that? It wasn't much... we thought there could be a flip from rain to snow in the hills/Berkshires and instead it flipped to +SN on the I-91 corridor and dropped like 5" of snow in 90 minutes during the morning commute. My first inclination something was wrong was when I saw one of our cameras at BDL with 1/4SM +SN when I had said moments ago, "maybe a few flakes will mix in but it should just be rain". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 While it looks pretty cold tomorrow - there's not a ton of omega in the snow growth zone down this way. Sort of a mismatch here. Not sure I'd go with huge ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Its because you guys tricked him into Mar 13 not 14...so Will was right thinking "what event, that didnt happen in March '13" haha. Yeah I can't identify the event in March 2013 (there was actually a huge fluke snow on the south coast of MA I think on 3/22/13 from a norlun, but obviously that didn't affect the I-91 corridor)...in '14 there was an event on 3/31 I recall...big ULL, maybe thats the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Mar' '13? what event was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Be the future my friend. Tell us. Looks good for the state, I recall a clipper from 2015 that snuck up a bit and wrecked havoc during evening rush. Feeling something similar may occur. 3/20/15 perhaps? Not sure if it was a clipper...but my records show 4.1". Looks like a Friday afternoon/eve event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I can't identify the event in March 2013 (there was actually a huge fluke snow on the south coast of MA I think on 3/22/13 from a norlun, but obviously that didn't affect the I-91 corridor)...in '14 there was an event on 3/31 I recall...big ULL, maybe thats the one. It was 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: It was 2014 Yeah my bad. Will's off the hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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