dryslot Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 If Will doesn't remember it it never happened...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 5:26 PM, dryslot said: If Will doesn't remember it it never happened...........lol Expand lol, but true story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 3:32 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: About 1/2 the modeled QPF as the NAM. Expand Shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 5:18 PM, Mr. Windcredible! said: 3/20/15 perhaps? Not sure if it was a clipper...but my records show 4.1". Looks like a Friday afternoon/eve event. Expand I cant remember much, party days gone wrong. but it wasnt that late in the season. Wait, its not 2015 it was 2014 in Feb maybe? an Arctic clipper that put down warning snows for most in CT during pm rush. I had to pull off the Merritt before the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Euro looks decent. Especially pike northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 5:54 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I cant remember much, party days gone wrong. but it wasnt that late in the season. Wait, its not 2015 it was 2014 in Feb maybe? an Arctic clipper that put down warning snows for most in CT during pm rush. I had to pull off the Merritt before the tunnel. Expand Well, that's not a great hill to be on in heavy snow. I don't blame you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 5:58 PM, weathafella said: Euro looks decent. Expand Yeah still a bit paltry on QPF, but better than 00z....the shortwave def looked pretty good to me. Has a little kink in it and travels near LI and ACK. Round 2 looks pretty good along and N of pike especially. That has some sneak potential because of the lapse rates.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Yeah not bad. Ray won't like it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah still a bit paltry on QPF, but better than 00z....the shortwave def looked pretty good to me. Has a little kink in it and travels near LI and ACK. Round 2 looks pretty good along and N of pike especially. That has some sneak potential because of the lapse rates.... Expand Kind of hints at AM tuck Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 What are temps like on Wednesday ahead of the squalls on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:03 PM, weathafella said: Kind of hints at AM tuck Wednesday? Expand Yeah it does. Might need to bring max temps down in the affected areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:04 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What are temps like on Wednesday ahead of the squalls on the Euro? Expand Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:04 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What are temps like on Wednesday ahead of the squalls on the Euro? Expand What squalls? Looks like some morning warm advection snow on Wednesday on the Euro - especially north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:04 PM, Damage In Tolland said: What are temps like on Wednesday ahead of the squalls on the Euro? Expand Prob upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:07 PM, CT Rain said: What squalls? Looks like some morning warm advection snow on Wednesday on the Euro - especially north of the Pike. Expand Twitter FTL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:07 PM, CoastalWx said: Twitter FTL? Expand Yeah who knows where he gets this stuff from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Ah, u guys love to stomp on him. when you envision everything, nobody else can see it. so thats the disconnect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:08 PM, CT Rain said: Yeah who knows where he gets this stuff from. Expand Ask Hayden at BOX.. are you saying he was wrong? Otherwise Wed, high TT (above 50) and decent lapse rates across the interior with the arctic wave passage is likely to yield brief mod SHSN across interior S New England when combined with incoming moisture from the active Great Lakes. LLJ 40+ kt also suggest brief squalls, with heavier winds, some whiteouts and rapid accums possible. Temps are still above seasonal normals as H92 temps only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:07 PM, CT Rain said: What squalls? Looks like some morning warm advection snow on Wednesday on the Euro - especially north of the Pike. Expand Euro torches the BL Wed afternoon with temps in the lower 40s. can you say quick evaporation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:12 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Ask Hayden at BOX.. are you saying he was wrong? Otherwise Wed, high TT (above 50) and decent lapse rates across the interior with the arctic wave passage is likely to yield brief mod SHSN across interior S New England when combined with incoming moisture from the active Great Lakes. LLJ 40+ kt also suggest brief squalls, with heavier winds, some whiteouts and rapid accums possible. Temps are still above seasonal normals as H92 temps only Expand *drops mic* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:14 PM, Ginx snewx said: Euro torches the BL Wed afternoon with temps in the lower 40s. can you say quick evaporation Expand Yeah I'll take the under on that lol. Especially with squalls in the afternoon . Prob 35-36 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:16 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah I'll take the under on that lol. Especially with squalls in the afternoon . Prob 35-36 here Expand Kev, I do not see any Arctis squalls Wed afternoon and you know me and Windex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:02 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah not bad. Ray won't like it though. Expand Nice run. .1-.3" QPF from Jay Peak to Ginxy's museum and everything inbetween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Seems like it may be sct SHSN if anything. Doesn't seem like a squall event kind of thing..at least to me. It does have steep lapse rates..but I don't see a big trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Seems like it may be sct SHSN if anything. Doesn't seem like a squall event kind of thing..at least to me. It does have steep lapse rates..but I don't see a big trigger. Expand Lapse rates are with the clipper, I don't know what Hayden is talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:19 PM, Ginx snewx said: Kev, I do not see any Arctis squalls Wed afternoon and you know me and Windex Expand Well Ryan highly respects Frank and thinks he's the best of the best at BOX.. so either he is outright saying he's wrong.. or just missed it as he was diagnosing the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:22 PM, Ginx snewx said: Lapse rates are with the clipper, I don't know what Hayden is talking about Expand There are steep lapse rates on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:26 PM, CoastalWx said: There are steep lapse rates on Wed. Expand I'd put this in the definite Meh category for CT Sounding variables and indices 1000-500 mb thick: 5245.99 m Freezing level: 955.86 mb = 438.79 m = 1439.58 ft Wetbulb zero: 974.99 mb = 278.47 m = 913.59 ft Precipitable water: 0.29 inches Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 59.88 % Est. max temperature: 4.51 C = 40.11 F Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 914.85 mb = 786.43 m = 2580.13 ft T: -3.31 C 700-500 lapse rate: 5.56 C/km ThetaE index: 3.58 C Layer 950.0- 800.0 mb Conv cond level (CCL): 878.32 mb = 1107.00 m = 3631.84 ft Mean mixing ratio: 2.80 g/kg Conv temperature: 3.57 C = 38.43 F Cap Strength: 7.96 C Lifted Index: 11.49 C Risk: None Lifted Index @300 mb: 24.21 C Lifted Index @700 mb: 4.18 C Showalter Index: 12.54 C Risk: None Total Totals Index: 38.21 C Risk: None Vertical Totals Index: 21.02 C Cross Totals Index: 17.19 C K Index: 3.60 Risk: None Sweat Index: 165.33 Risk: None Energy Index: 3.21 Risk: None Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 On 1/30/2017 at 6:26 PM, CoastalWx said: There are steep lapse rates on Wed. Expand Yeah H5 gets frigid while BL is briefly torching (relatively speaking). I don't see an organized windex event...but it could be those cellular snow showers with a brief S+ burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Now Tuesday is potential Sounding variables and indices 1000-500 mb thick: 5248.48 m Freezing level: Surface below freezing Wetbulb zero: Below ground Precipitable water: 0.35 inches Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 79.81 % Est. max temperature: 4.73 C = 40.51 F Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 962.42 mb = 367.58 m = 1205.94 ft T: -4.96 C 700-500 lapse rate: 7.45 C/km ThetaE index: 0.21 C Layer 850.0- 800.0 mb Conv cond level (CCL): 950.32 mb = 467.06 m = 1532.34 ft Mean mixing ratio: 2.66 g/kg Conv temperature: -2.34 C = 27.79 F Cap Strength: 12.11 C Lifted Index: 11.96 C Risk: None Lifted Index @300 mb: 27.31 C Lifted Index @700 mb: 9.17 C Showalter Index: 8.45 C Risk: None Total Totals Index: 47.46 C Risk: Scattered moderate thunderstorms Vertical Totals Index: 23.89 C Cross Totals Index: 23.57 C K Index: 15.24 Risk: < 20 % chance of thunderstorms Sweat Index: 79.74 Risk: None Energy Index: 2.29 Risk: None Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.