Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 NAM/RGEM deadly combo this winter continue the trends of keeping the low south of LI with long duration light snow into Wednesday. General ideas from the past few days of 1-3 spot 4 amounts..Best may end up being south of I-90 but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 ***A widespread light accumulating snowfall expected late Tuesday into early Wednesday**** Tuesday and Tuesday night... impressive shortwave energy will dive south of southern New England. This will generate a weak wave of low pressure to our south and setup an inverted trough. With that said, expect dry weather to prevail Tuesday morning. In response to the approaching shortwave energy, light snow should develop from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon into the early evening. Moist onshore flow and modest lift should allow for periods of light snow to continue across the region Tuesday night. Ptype should be snow for most locations, but enough boundary layer warm air may arrive across the Cape and especially Islands for a change to rain. Overall, it looks like a 1 to 2 inch snowfall for most of the region Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday with localized 3 inch amounts. However, these inverted troughs are very difficult to forecast even in the near term. Will have to watch the exact track of the shortwave energy and potential for an enhanced area of surface convergence. Low level easterly flow, coupled with steep mid level lapse rates/total totals in the 50s will result in the risk for a localized narrow band or two of heavier convective snow. Whether this develops or even ends up across southern New England is impossible to say at this time. However, we will say there is a low risk that a small area or two ends up with a localized band of 4 to 6 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 That's why you can't be a qpf queen. Eventually peeps will learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2017 Author Share Posted January 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's why you can't be a qpf queen. Eventually peeps will learn. Certainly was a head scratcher with some of those posts people had over the weekend. Looking forward to a nice wintry afternoon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I'll take my inv trough and like it. May get a 6hr period Wed of steady mood snows that stack up well despite unimpressive visibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 The Rev ought to make a topic for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 You can tell the enthusiasm for this winter is waning when the posts slow to a trickle. Still time for a reversal of fortunes but that door is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hazey said: You can tell the enthusiasm for this winter is waning when the posts slow to a trickle. Still time for a reversal of fortunes but that door is closing. What are they supposed to do? Weenie out on a day 8 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 The 2nd piece of energy on the clipper is getting more interesting...I wonder if that pops things a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 What are they supposed to do? Weenie out on a day 8 storm? Umm errr, there is a system a day out. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Umm errr, there is a system a day out. No? Seems like it's getting the attn. it's also early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly was a head scratcher with some of those posts people had over the weekend. Looking forward to a nice wintry afternoon tomorrow. Low level easterly flow, coupled with steep mid level lapse rates/total totals in the 50s will result in the risk for a localized narrow band or two of heavier convective snow. Whether this develops or even ends up across southern New England is impossible to say at this time. However, we will say there is a low risk that a small area or two ends up with a localized band of 4 to 6 inches of snow. These are the situations in which SCT SRI and even SE Mass about 5 miles inland are a convergence zone and you end up with this west to east xzone of about 15 miles wide with heavy snow. Where that sets up shop will make the difference as to whether this is a nuisance event or a serious plowable outcome, it also could end up in LI or offshore. Some models bring it closer while others keep that contrast and uplift offshore. As pointed out last night total totals, lapse rates are pretty stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That's why you can't be a qpf queen. Eventually peeps will learn. 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly was a head scratcher with some of those posts people had over the weekend. Looking forward to a nice wintry afternoon tomorrow. Probably because best dynamics were north in every model run, don't know who was qpf queening over model output that matched dynamics. Looks better yesterday and today but Euro is a caution flag for best lift in Dendrite land, mood snows seem a lock, anything better? well we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hazey said: Umm errr, there is a system a day out. No? I talked about destructive wave intereference a few days ago. It wasnt really acknowledged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I talked about destructive wave intereference a few days ago. It wasnt really acknowledged. Oh I get that. I'm just saying that three weeks ago this s/w would've had it's own thread and be 10 pages deep by now...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Still a 1-2" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Still a 1-2" for most. Yep. That's what I would expect. Have the mesoscale fairly drops a little something under your pillow, more power to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Still a 1-2" for most. Yup. MEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Let's lock in that solution at the end of the 0z Euro please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 NAM looks a bit better vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 NGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM looks a bit better vs 6z. Nice WAA isentropic snows tomorrow afternoon on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Nice WAA isentropic snows tomorrow afternoon on that run. Kink in the flow at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice WAA isentropic snows tomorrow afternoon on that run. Yeah that's what stood out to me. Might be best near pike and south, but will shift north after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Kink in the flow at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 Good post Steve. Fun times tomorrow afternoon into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that's what stood out to me. Might be best near pike and south, but will shift north after 00z. Wouldnt be surprised if that first stuff overperforms. I'm always leery of vort energy traveling underneath us...it's hard not for there to be a fast response as soon as it hits the waters south of New England. Then the second round of energy behind it is what causes the IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wouldnt be surprised if that first stuff overperforms. I'm always leery of vort energy traveling underneath us...it's hard not for there to be a fast response as soon as it hits the waters south of New England. Then the second round of energy behind it is what causes the IVT It's a cold atmosphere with 50kts at 850 gliding up and over. Good ratios too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 I'd say a general 1-3" is in order. Gut feeling is any higher amounts will be south ofvtge pike....near Kev, and/or Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2017 Share Posted January 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's a cold atmosphere with 50kts at 850 gliding up and over. Good ratios too. 4km run is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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