nrgjeff Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Not to worry, I wouldn't jump on anyone in our sub-forum like that. In reality I was probably too jacked up on Harvey emotions, looking for a winter escape. You know how I roll. I welcome newbies; I'm patient explaining stuff; and, I'm the first to concede I learn micro-climates from you guys. OK our friends at SPC just dropped ENH in Mississippi for today, Wednesday. TOR box probs 60/30, wow. They are talking about ENH for tornadoes in the heart of the Tennessee Valley Thursday. We'll see how today goes. Also if that surface low really deepens again as it goes extra-tropical, Thursday evening could get quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 48 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Not to worry, I wouldn't jump on anyone in our sub-forum like that. In reality I was probably too jacked up on Harvey emotions, looking for a winter escape. You know how I roll. I welcome newbies; I'm patient explaining stuff; and, I'm the first to concede I learn micro-climates from you guys. OK our friends at SPC just dropped ENH in Mississippi for today, Wednesday. TOR box probs 60/30, wow. They are talking about ENH for tornadoes in the heart of the Tennessee Valley Thursday. We'll see how today goes. Also if that surface low really deepens again as it goes extra-tropical, Thursday evening could get quite interesting. Hey man, I hope you know that I was totally joking. LOL. You know this...but you always bring great info to the board. And yes, you are always understanding when it comes to all of us amateur weather hobby folks. If you ever feel like you are going astray, you can always following the example that Jax and I set last winter. We are all about harmony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The 00z NAM and 00z 3km NAM show that areas of MS/AL/TN will have extremely unusual supercell parameters and tornado parameters for this time of year. The only way to get STP=1 to 2 at this time of year is with a tropical cyclone, with these areas. I think a few tornadoes and wind damage reports will happen in the slight risk area. The 00z convection-allowing models all have discrete convection. I certainly hope that Harvey doesn't hurt any more people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 . Off my GR2. Mother nature must be confused Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Florence to Athens, Alabama is the chase target. Area is relatively flat and is mostly agricultural land use. Action may start near Corinth, Miss but the terrain is horrendous that way. Quasi-boundary is lifting north. HRRR storms around 18Z on Tenn border appear to be elevated and/or with something in the mid-levels. Low level boundary interactions appear better later in the above target area. Wind shear will rapidly increase as remnants come out of Mississippi. Safety is paramount here with the high flash flood risk. Just saw a total solar eclipse! I know to quit when I'm ahead so will chase with great caution today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, nrgjeff said: Florence to Athens, Alabama is the chase target. Area is relatively flat and is mostly agricultural land use. Action may start near Corinth, Miss but the terrain is horrendous that way. Quasi-boundary is lifting north. HRRR storms around 18Z on Tenn border appear to be with something in the mid-levels. Low level boundary interactions appear better later in the above target area. Wind shear will rapidly increase as remnants come out of Mississippi. Safety is paramount here with the high flash flood risk. Just saw a total solar eclipse! I know to quit when I'm ahead so will chase with great caution today. I'm thinking about going to go to my house in Lawrenceburg later on.Not sure though if it's worth the drive though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Thu Aug 31 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and western Alabama Northeast Mississippi Southwest Tennessee * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1115 AM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Arcing bands of showers and storms will pose a risk for brief tornadoes this afternoon into early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles either side of a line from 60 miles north of Oxford MS to 55 miles southeast of Tuscaloosa AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 These storm cells don't seem very convincing as tornadic storms. But there may be 4 or more tornadoes in here anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Debris ball currently north of reform Al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkYikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Documented a tornado between the Winfield AL and Yamperton AL exits on I-22 Thursday August 31 about 4:45 pm Central. First pic was right after stopping. Second is poking my phone outside the car. Third is after catching my breath and getting into proper position. Yeah, it was a day! Flat Ag area from Florence to Athens had to be punted due to the meteorology. UAH SWIRLL and BMX/Columbus AFB both released special 18Z RAOBs. Former had great upper winds with a stiff LLJ. Latter had upper winds still good but a really robust LLJ. Great to stop at the SWIRLL, check data, and see friends. Rolled out toward the Shoals and then turned southwest toward Tupelo but the Mississippi storms started to slop out. Pro Tip: Just chase Bama. Quasi-traditional supercells started up in the Reform to Fayette, AL areas. Confirmed tornadoes in progress, but I was back on the MS/AL border with no chance to get ahead. Plan B let them cross I-22 first. Toward I-22 mile marker 20 the clouds lower and darken. Rain hampers visibility but no hail worries in a tropical hybrid. Toward mm 24 I sense I have reached the cell I'm after vs slopvection. Data is good, but no substitute for experience. Approaching mm 26 I see a vertical scud curtain at about 1:00 in front of me. Slow down out of caution here. Leaves and twigs start falling out of the sky, not blowing sideways. Falling debris signals trouble is near. I stop. Surface wind shifts out of the north as the tornado crosses I-22 a couple miles ahead of me. Check spray off top of truck in pic 2. Twister appears to be leaning over and perhaps dissipating, a blessing for those oblivious drivers on I-22. Stop at mm 30 gas station and they tell a similar story. I'm on the correct side of the storm now. Looks great, but going into jungle. I head home via Birmingham. It's not a total eclipse, but a good day. Thank You God for the spectacle, for seeing good friends, and for my safe return home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, marginal hail, or a brief tornado will be possible, mainly this afternoon across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. ...OH/TN Valley regions through late evening... A surface cyclone in MO this morning will deepen while moving east-northeastward across the OH Valley to the lower Great Lakes by tonight, in advance of an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough. An associated surface cold front will surge eastward from MO/AR this morning to the Appalachians by early tonight. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a narrow corridor of weak buoyancy in the pre-frontal warm sector. However, clouds will limit surface heating and midlevel lapse rates will weaken with eastward extent, limiting the degree of warm sector buoyancy. Ongoing elevated convection in the zone of stronger forcing for ascent (in advance of the surface cyclone) will persist into the day, with some threat for isolated large hail given the lingering steep lapse rate feed from the west-southwest. Otherwise, a narrow band of low-topped convection should form by midday in the band of ascent along the cold front as ascent/moistening weakens the cap, and then move quickly eastward through the afternoon/evening across the OH/TN Valley regions. Though buoyancy will remain weak, 50-60 kt flow just above the surface and strong low-level shear will contribute to the threat for damaging winds, and perhaps an embedded tornado or two, with the forced band of convection. The threat for damaging winds should diminish by late evening as the cold front overturns the remaining weakly unstable warm sector. ..Thompson/Peters.. 11/18/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 Line looks like it could be fairly potent,haven't had a good t-storm in some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 2 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Line looks like it could be fairly potent,haven't had a good t-storm in some time 2 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Line looks like it could be fairly potent,haven't had a good t-storm in some time The Wind is really starting to pickup here in west TN. We have a high temp of 79 today with a low temp of 35 tonight. It's gonna be an interesting day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Tornado south of Rural Hill, TN, moving towards Gladeville. Edit: Looks like there is another TDS north of Smyrna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 19, 2017 Author Share Posted November 19, 2017 Think it was mostly straight line winds.Seen the news in Joelton where some trees were blown down in the same direction and a steep roof was blown off one side and the other side was still intact.Some good wind though looking at the video around that area where you could see the bark peeled off some trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 Nashville NWS surveyed EF-1 damage. They showed residential damage on social media. Radar shots (below) look like unchasable slop. Glad nobody was hurt. http://www.weather.gov/ohx/20171118 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 12 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Nashville NWS surveyed EF-1 damage. They showed residential damage on social media. Radar shots (below) look like unchasable slop. Glad nobody was hurt. http://www.weather.gov/ohx/20171118 EF-0 was added today at Hartsville,TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 22 tornadoes in Mid Tn.,avg.is 8 so it's been a active year so far.Luckily no biggie though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.