jaxjagman Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Euro shows another system today coming off China today maybe into the Yellow Sea by day 10.Pattern continues it seems just like the energizer bunny,it keeps on and on and on with a ridge behind it and another trough to follow.This system though don't looked as suppressed as the others with more serperation?Not sure,it'd be a severe threat around the 10-11th of the month i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 26, 2017 Author Share Posted March 26, 2017 Nice,850mb winds least if not severe brings some good rain potential into the Mid Valley(Monday after next so its gonna be wrong..lol).Don't want to get in any stinkin drought into summer,this would go west to east not as strong though but at least over 50 kts to the east Valley by the looks,who knows if it will be right,but it's a enjoyable sight to me compared to the last couple years,bring the rain on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 Best updrafts are right now west of Nashville,though there is some updrafts further east of the enhamcedl risk area,severe threat looks like now in the Western Valley west of Nashville,though there could be some severe storms further east in the slight risk area in the Md Valley ...portions of the OH-TN-MS Valleys... Low-level moisture will return north into the Mid South and OH Valley within a WAA regime associated with a 35-kt LLJ during the morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the MS river at daybreak and move downstream into TN and the lower OH Valley. There is some uncertainty regarding the magnitude of destabilization farther north near the OH River where clouds and early-day convection may limit destabilization. Nonetheless, models show a plume of upper 50s dewpoints near the OH River to the low-mid 60s in the MS Delta. The increasing moisture coupled with diurnal destabilization south and west of early activity will probably result in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid afternoon with weak buoyancy forecast farther north near the OH River. Forcing for ascent provided by the mid-level wave in conjunction with convergence along the surface boundary over eastern AR northward to the OH-MS River confluence will likely serve as a focus for storm development during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strongest from TN southward into northern MS/AL with effective shear magnitudes 35-50 kt. Cellular clusters of supercells and organized multicells are forecast with hail (perhaps very large with the most intense storm or two) and damaging winds the main threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-SOUTH TO CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL MS/AL... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough along the KS/MO border will move east to the Cumberland Plateau by early Tuesday. Attendant surface cyclone will track from the Ozark Plateau into the Middle OH Valley, weakening late in the period. A cold front will shift east across the Mid-South this afternoon with trailing portion stalling tonight over the Lower MS Valley. ...Lower MS/OH and TN Valleys... Two storm clusters are ongoing across southern IL/western KY and separately over northwest AR. The 27/00Z WRF-NSSL and HRW-ARW appear to have the best reflection of these clusters compared to other CAMs. The eastern cluster should slow destabilization north of the OH River today where surface dew points are predominately in the 40s as of 12Z. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will continue to advect northeast ahead of the northwest AR cluster into the Mid-South within a broad 30-40 kt LLJ. This should result in a plume of lower 60s surface dew points nosing towards the MS/OH River confluence, with middle 60s maintained across the Lower MS Valley. The increasing moisture coupled with diurnal destabilization will likely result in MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg developing by mid afternoon. Low-level WAA ahead of the AR cluster in conjunction with convergence along the impinging cold front should serve as a focus for increasing afternoon storm development. With effective shear magnitudes of 35-45 kt, several supercells are anticipated, especially with southern extent in the open warm sector. Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and isolated damaging winds are most probable with this activity centered on the Mid-South. Some of the hail may be significantly severe owing to steep mid-level lapse rates sampled by 12Z Jackson, Shreveport, and Little Rock RAOBs. A few of these supercells will likely organize into one or more east-moving line segments axis, with damaging winds becoming the predominant hazard towards middle TN/central KY/northwest AL. Farther south into central portions of MS/AL, weak 500-mb height falls during the day coupled with heating and weakening convective inhibition should result in at least isolated storms developing within confluence bands in the absence of any well-defined boundary. A risk for hail and wind damage should accompany the stronger storms. ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/27/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Sometimes, it just seems like when there's a system capable of producing severe storms to the west of the eastern valley, Gandolf is standing on the Cumberland Plateau and shouting "You shall not pass!!!" Jokes aside, it's intrigues me how the eastern valley sees very little widespread severe thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TN RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF MS/AL TO THE OH RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Lower Ohio/Mississippi River Valleys and Tennessee Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern MO late this morning will continue generally eastward and reach the middle OH River Valley by late tonight. A preceding belt of 40-50 kt west-southwesterly mid level winds will continue to overspread an increasingly moist, albeit modestly so, warm sector. Ahead of an eastward-moving cold front currently across the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex, lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will continue to become increasingly common across eastern AR, northern MS into western TN, northward into western KY. While warm-sector cloud cover has remained semi-prevalent thus far, some cloud breaks are noted in visible satellite imagery an additional thinning seems likely in concert especially with the eastward-spread mid/high-level dry slot as per water vapor satellite imagery. Linearly organized convection across far northeast AR/far southeast MO late this morning should continue to spread east-northeastward and increase in coverage/intensify into northwest TN and western/central KY as the downstream air mass continues to moisten and destabilize. This activity will pose a damaging wind and severe hail risk, although a tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther south, other initially more discrete storms should develop within the warm sector this afternoon across additional portions of TN, far eastern AR, northern MS and eventually northwest AL later this afternoon/evening. Here, supercell-favorable wind profiles and steep mid-level lapse rates as noted per 12Z observed soundings will support large hail potential. A few tornadoes also appear possible, particularly around mid/late afternoon into early evening across western/middle portions of TN and northern MS and northwest AL. In this corridor, a modest westerly component of the mid-level winds will coincide with modestly strong low-level shear/SRH. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 03/27/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 89 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Western Kentucky Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop within an increase moist and unstable air mass across the region. Mostly linear bands of severe thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward across northwest Tennessee into west-central Kentucky, while more isolated storms are expected across northern Mississippi into west-central Tennessee. Large hail and damaging winds can be expected, and at least some tornado risk could gradually increase through the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Convective watch being considered for much of Mississippi, along with far west Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Large hail with this storm in Southwest Kentucky, near Lynn Grove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Northern Mississippi supercell. Impressive potential for damaging hail ---- * At 108 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Canaan, or 12 miles northwest of Ripley, moving east at 40 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...Baseball size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Possible tornado near Falkner, Mississippi, moving NE. The one Chinook is referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 Two now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 New Severe Thunderstorm Watch through 9 PM CDT for all of North Alabama, and Central Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Confirmed TOG near Theo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 The beginnings of a Three Body Scattered Spike on the Correlation Coefficient mode near Albertville, Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 While this event is still occurring, 18z NAM paints a scary picture across our southern area Thursday Afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 27, 2017 Share Posted March 27, 2017 Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the western half of the eastern valley until 11 PM EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 27, 2017 Author Share Posted March 27, 2017 Good storms down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WEST TN...EASTERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday from parts of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. ...Lower/Mid MS Valley into TN Valley... A strong upper trough will continue moving eastward across the southern Plains and into the mid/lower MS valley on Thursday. Thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front/dryline over AR/LA and track eastward into MS/TN. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for strong CAPE ahead of the front, along with favorable shear profiles for organized/severe storms. Model solutions are quite consistent on the position of main trough axis, but the details of shortwave timing/locations are quite diverse. Nevertheless, a consensus of guidance provides sufficient confidence to upgrade a portion of western TN, eastern AR, and northern MS to an ENH risk for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Sad news in the storm chasing world today. Three storm chasers were killed in a violent intersection crash that took place about 3 miles west of Spur, Texas at 3:30 P.M. Central time. Here is an article on it.- http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/three-storm-chasers-die-in-car-crash-on-tuesday-afternoon/70001248 Two of the chasers were very well known, Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall were well known storm chasers who worked for TWC bringing live on sight severe storm coverage to the many people at home. Of those also lost Corbin Jaegar was also killed in the collision who was also storm chasing. This personally hurt a lot as I typically watched Kelleys livestreams a lot. Any way I got onto his Youtube channel to see if he was covering the severe weather in Texas when I noticed the video seemed cut short I skipped to the end to see the video and the audio and video blanked out before an intersection. I figured out a few minutes later they had passed. We never know when our time will come but we should not live our lives in fear I suppose. They will be missed by many thousands of people including myself personally, let them rest in peace, and who knows perhaps they are up there storm chasing with the angels! I apologize if this is off-topic but I felt it was right I mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog660 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 5 hours ago, BlunderStorm said: Sad news in the storm chasing world today. Three storm chasers were killed in a violent intersection crash that took place about 3 miles west of Spur, Texas at 3:30 P.M. Central time. Here is an article on it.- http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/three-storm-chasers-die-in-car-crash-on-tuesday-afternoon/70001248 Two of the chasers were very well known, Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall were well known storm chasers who worked for TWC bringing live on sight severe storm coverage to the many people at home. Of those also lost Corbin Jaegar was also killed in the collision who was also storm chasing. This personally hurt a lot as I typically watched Kelleys livestreams a lot. Any way I got onto his Youtube channel to see if he was covering the severe weather in Texas when I noticed the video seemed cut short I skipped to the end to see the video and the audio and video blanked out before an intersection. I figured out a few minutes later they had passed. We never know when our time will come but we should not live our lives in fear I suppose. They will be missed by many thousands of people including myself personally, let them rest in peace, and who knows perhaps they are up there storm chasing with the angels! I apologize if this is off-topic but I felt it was right I mentioned it. It's not an off topic to me.I always enjoyed watching KW in a chase.Sad news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN...NORTHWEST AL...AND SOUTHWEST KY... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL MS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... An active severe weather event is forecast for Thursday over parts of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. ...Northern MS/Northwest AL/Western and Middle TN/Southwest KY... A strong upper trough will rotate across the southern/central Plains today, and into the lower/mid MS Valley on Thursday. Models suggest that thunderstorm activity from the Day1 period will be waning in most areas by Thursday morning, while the primary cold front remains over central AR/LA. This should allow for some heating and destabilization to occur ahead of the front, with re-development of thunderstorms during the afternoon near the MS River. A strong mid-level speed max (50+ knots at 700mb) will rotate across the cold front during the afternoon, promoting strong low-level and deep layer vertical shear profiles. Forecast soundings show 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2 and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg. Several 00z cam solutions that extend into the Day2 period indicate discrete supercell mode will be preferred with the activity, suggesting a favorable environment for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Strong tornadoes and very large hail will be possible in the MDT risk area. The eastward extent of low level moisture will be a limiting factor to how far east the significant severe threat will develop. Nevertheless, strong to severe storms may reach eastern KY/TN and parts of AL during the evening. ...MO/IL/IN... It appears the risk for severe storms will also extend northward into parts of MO/IL/IN during the day as activity blossoms ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This area will likely experience more cloud cover on Thursday, limiting the confidence in sufficient instability. Nevertheless, hail and damaging wind will be possible in the stronger cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Going to pin this topic for the Thursday MDT risk.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 Lots of updrafts on the NAM.GFS is slightly faster compared to it's 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 NAM sounding for southwest Tennessee tomorrow (21z) shows pretty high parameters, including 51 kt of effective shear and 2980 J/kg of CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms potentially capable of damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and hail are forecast on Thursday over parts of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...Middle and lower MS Valley eastward into the TN and OH Valleys... Complex forecast for Thursday with considerable uncertainty regarding specific details of the overall forecast scenario owing in part to prior thunderstorm activity on Wednesday and Wednesday night through early Thursday. Some model solutions exhibit favorable buoyancy/shear for the possible development of significant severe thunderstorms during peak heating while other solutions suggest a more mesoscale-dependent severe risk to develop within the area generally defined within the 30% severe probabilities (category 3 risk). Early-day clouds/thunderstorm activity will likely modulate both low-level moisture and 700-500mb lapse rates across the MS Valley. This is reflected in the variability of the most recent model guidance with the NAM implying intense storms redeveloping across the northern half of MS northward into the lower OH Valley. This is in contrast to the latest GFS and ECMWF models showing widespread thunderstorms in a band during the morning near the MS River moving east with little recovery/destabilization expected in its wake. Yet, some cooling aloft in association with the approaching mid-level low/cold pocket will contribute to destabilization, in addition to surface heating during the day in wake of early-day clouds/thunderstorms. A cold front is forecast to slowly progress across the MS Valley and serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development, perhaps as early as midday. As previously described, considerable variability in the magnitude of buoyancy is depicted in model guidance. Nonetheless, upwards of 500-1500 J/kg is forecast within an area of strong cyclonically curved 500-mb flow. Forecast soundings show strong effective shear (40-60 kt) which will likely result in storm organization and an attendant risk for wind damage. The strength of the low-level shear will conditionally augment a tornado risk for any mature supercells or mesovortices in a squall line. Hail will be possible both near the cold pocket with strong updrafts and in areas where mid-level lapse rates are less convectively contaminated. The broken bands of storms will move east in eastern parts of KY/TN and the eastern portions of the central Gulf Coast during the evening and overnight with a gradual weakening in storm intensity and expected severe coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 NAM sounding for southwest Tennessee tomorrow (21z) shows pretty high parameters, including 51 kt of effective shear and 2980 J/kg of CAPENorthern Hardin CountySent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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