Witness Protection Program Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Cell northwest of Nashville has gone severe. Watching a good light show from Green Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 74 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 830 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 830 PM until 100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of severe storms over western KY will track eastward across the watch area late this evening and tonight. These storms will pose a risk of damaging winds and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Nashville TN to 35 miles east southeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Tornado warned storm has had a TDS for multiple scans now, has come down a little as it's approaching Hickman, KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Green Hails here at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Rotation around Rutherford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Tor warn near Hollady. Bucksnort take cover, lulz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Wow, how are Nashville TV mets besides Ch.4 so lousy at 10pm? Ch.5 chick is too obsessed with mommy warnings "A new tornado warning west of Dickson, so if you live in Central Tennessee I want you in your safe space now." Ch.2 must have cut their budget to a 1-woman show, the poor gal keeps running off screen to move the maps, and doing a horrible job of it. LOL, labels covering 3/4th of the radar, zooming in to the wrong areas, disorganized, "Um, let me, um, just a second, um..." Hey anchors, get off your arses and help her out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 Wow, how are Nashville TV mets besides Ch.4 so lousy at 10pm? Ch.5 chick is too obsessed with mommy warnings "A new tornado warning west of Dickson, so if you live in Central Tennessee I want you in your safe space now." Ch.2 must have cut their budget to a 1-woman show, the poor gal keeps running off screen to move the maps, and doing a horrible job of it. LOL, labels covering 3/4th of the radar, zooming in to the wrong areas, disorganized, "Um, let me, um, just a second, um..." Hey anchors, get off your arses and help her out. I was watching 2 while on my PC.I agree, it was like they threw Breezy to the wolves.You could tell she was having problems with the controls switching to different screens as you mentioned.She did a good job other wise but you could tell she was nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Helluva a hailstorm at 2am this morning...covered the ground but it was mainly pea sized...no pics as I left my phone upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Euro weeklies and CFS weeklies have both reverted to the trough west ridge east pattern for the end of March and much of April. Figured the cold runs last week were bogus, likely influenced by the current cold snap. At any rate we appear set for an active severe wx April. Tee it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 19, 2017 Author Share Posted March 19, 2017 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal threat for hail and strong gusty winds will be possible in parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians on Tuesday. ...Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the northern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward into the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians by afternoon. The front will be the focus for thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. The NAM and GFS solutions are in fairly good agreement on the position of the front near the Tennessee and Kentucky state-line by late afternoon. The models show a pocket of instability along with moderate deep-layer shear located along and just to the south of the front suggesting that a marginal severe threat will be possible. NAM and GFS forecast soundings at Nashville TN at 21z on Tuesday have steep lapse rates in the mid-levels with effective shear of 35 to 45 knots. This may be enough for hail with the stronger updrafts. Veered low-level winds and west to northwest flow aloft may be also support a tendency for convection to go linear which would contribute to a marginal wind-damage threat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 19, 2017 Author Share Posted March 19, 2017 The Dashboard would also agree with this as it's lit up like a Christmas tree into April,tho more severe threat would be into the plains http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/CFS_Dashboard/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2017 Author Share Posted March 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2017 Author Share Posted March 20, 2017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal threat for hail and strong gusty winds will be possible in parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians on Tuesday. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians... West to northwest mid-level flow will be in place across the eastern half of the contiguous United States on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward into the Tennessee Valley during the day. Although large-scale ascent should remain weak along the front, the models still agree on convective initiation over Tennessee during the afternoon due to surface heating and enhanced low-level convergence. It appears that a convective cluster will develop over southeast Missouri and move east southeastward into middle Tennessee during the late afternoon reaching the southern Appalachian mountains by early evening. NAM and GFS forecast soundings along this corridor from 21Z to 00Z show SBCAPE around 1500 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near 35 kt. Winds are unidirectional from the west northwest in the low to mid-levels with steep low-level lapse rates. This may support an isolated wind-damage threat. A hail threat will also be possible with the stronger multicell updrafts. The NAM model suggests that the convection could remain just behind the front suggesting that outflow could be undercut. This combined with a lack of large-scale ascent will potentially marginalize the severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Saturday in the Mid-South runs the risk of an MCS rainout. Thursday and Friday might be good days on the Plains, esp if Kansas wins in KC Thursday and Friday goes severe. Mid-South Saturday, models try to refire the front behind the first wave or rain. They bring in another short-wave and try to reset the wind fields. IDK about that just-in-time stuff. Sometimes works on the Plains; works even less often in the South. Only thing this year I do remember a refire job verifying some tornadoes in Kentucky. Wichita is still better at tornadoes! I am cautiously optimistic for some severe action. Otherwise, we have some excellent basketball lined up. Split the screens between hoops and weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 There may be some scattered severe storms tomorrow from Paducah KY and the bootheel of Missouri, all the way across Tennessee to NC and SC, maybe even northwest GA. the 12z NAM has 2000 J/kg of CAPE and 35kt of shear in mid-Tennessee tomorrow afternoon. There will not be very much in low-level shear, so tornadoes are unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Maybe we can get a few hailers going Tuesday. A straight line wind or two would not surprise, but agree not tornadoes. Lapse rates will be steep enough, which might promote some hail. Saturday looks a little better on 12Z data, but my bracket also looked better last Monday LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 20, 2017 Author Share Posted March 20, 2017 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: Maybe we can get a few hailers going Tuesday. A straight line wind or two would not surprise, but agree not tornadoes. Lapse rates will be steep enough, which might promote some hail. Saturday looks a little better on 12Z data, but my bracket also looked better last Monday LOL! I picked Duke..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 Boundaries from west to east like today make forward propagating clusters fun! Good thing it's not late May 90/72. If you want severe today, look for sunshine and warm temps both sides of the boundary. A sharper boundary would allow greater chances of cold undercutting. Today looks like enough warming on the north side of the boundary.. However.. Organized wind really depends on whether convection ahead of the forecast MCS stabilizes things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 MRX has issued a Special Weather Statement for the southern Plateau and valley (and oddly parts of the central valley including Knoxville). Cherokee-Clay-Morgan-Anderson-Roane-Loudon-Knox-NW Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk- Including the cities of Murphy, Hayesville, Wartburg, Clinton, Oak Ridge, Kingston, Lenoir City, Knoxville, Maryville, Cades Cove, Sevierville, Gatlinburg, Dunlap, Pikeville, Dayton, Decatur, Athens, Madisonville, Coker Creek, Jasper, Chattanooga, Cleveland, Benton, and Ducktown 1143 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 /1043 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017/ ...Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina for late this Afternoon and early Evening... An area of thunderstorms will develop across middle Tennessee this afternoon then move east southeast into the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee between 4 and 6 pm ET. This area of storms will continue to move east into southwest North Carolina by 7 pm. Areas south of interstate 40 have the great threat of severe storms today. The main concern from these storms will be large hail up to Golfball size and damaging winds up to 70 mph. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for the latest updates on this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 Mesoscale discussion mentions 1.5-2.0 inch hail. It's reasonable with steep lapse rates advecting in and a somewhat dry sounding. Both would also promote high winds in spite of otherwise meh low level kinematics. Forward speed alone may help gin up wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 5 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Mesoscale discussion mentions 1.5-2.0 inch hail. It's reasonable with steep lapse rates advecting in and a somewhat dry sounding. Both would also promote high winds in spite of otherwise meh low level kinematics. Forward speed alone may help gin up wind. A few areas around Knoxville saw Golfball size hail from a couple cells. There was a report of baseball size in Bradley county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 22, 2017 Author Share Posted March 22, 2017 Been awhile since we'eve seen a wide spread hail event in the Valley http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 Here is some GOES-16 eye candy from southeast Tennessee March 21, 2017 (Tuesday). They had that thing on 30-second rapid refresh, amazing. I see the Cleveland TN crusher on visible! https://satelliteliaisonblog.wordpress.com/2017/03/21/goes-16-30-sec-imagery/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 23, 2017 Share Posted March 23, 2017 3 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Here is some GOES-16 eye candy from southeast Tennessee March 21, 2017 (Tuesday). They had that thing on 30-second rapid refresh, amazing. I see the Cleveland TN crusher on visible! https://satelliteliaisonblog.wordpress.com/2017/03/21/goes-16-30-sec-imagery/ Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 European weeklies and CFS weeklies are in good agreement. Looks like the first half of April is a little variable (still warm) after much warmer than normal next week. First two weeks of April both models try to hash out timing of a cold front or two. Strangely agreement is better weeks 3-4, second half of April. Looks like a trough west ridge east weather pattern. After April 15th that is classic for severe weather episodes. Plains to Mid South and Midwest probably have the best chance by both climatology and the model output. Persistence of the pattern also supports. In fact persistence and climo are probably better evidence than the models, which are in good agreement too. Deep South and Southeast Coast do not look as volatile, but active patterns sometimes clip everybody. Hopefully the biggest days will be in sparsely populated areas. None of the Day 1-8 outlooks inspire me. I will probably save it for after April 15th. Also got March Madness in the near term and, if they keep up this intensity, hopefully a championship for Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 24, 2017 Author Share Posted March 24, 2017 Least it's not a boring part into spring in the Valley like we've witnessed the last few springs,plus, it's wet !!.Looks like the pattern will last maybe into the 2nd week of April.Long range by D10 the models show a ridge into Mongolia and China,so the freight train stops for a period . Good luck to your Jayhawks Jeff.Think ya'll will take down Oregon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 Thank you. During the pause in the severe wx buffet line hopefully I'll be watching my team in the Final Four and Championship. The said pause lines up with my early April thinking, but it won't last long. Short term, I infer from the delay and two mentions of tornadoes in the text that SPC was itching to go ENH Day 2. Frankly I am glad they kept Slight. More hoops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2017 Author Share Posted March 25, 2017 Nice line along west of the river,nothing severe tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 25, 2017 Author Share Posted March 25, 2017 If we can get some better shear Monday with the shortwave it might not that half bad on the Euro,maybe some hail.Thurs-Fri system looks more wind and t-storms.It's not done yet another system on the 2nd coming into the MO./Valley,this one so far looks pretty decent with instabilities.Nice LLJ 60-70KTS with decent shear,though this of course is far out but this one bears watching ATM,IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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