jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2017 Author Share Posted February 18, 2017 Decent winter time building ridge setting up with the Euro with a ULL to the NW.Euro shows a warm front lifting from the SE states.DP'S would rise with this in the Valley,this should be a decent severe threat with bulk shear coming from the SW the first of the month.Dashboard shows a multi day event during this time frame.Might be over doing the capes in Texas on the 28th,typical Euro in the long range with convection,but it shows capes into 3k plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 Good chance for some storms upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 Friday as well http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F108&rundt=2017022012&map=thbSVR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 We'll see how much moisture is around.Loss of diurnal heating and the storm pulling off to the lakes would hurt the eastern Valley with instabilities.Not a whole lot moisture to the west of the Mid Valley is being shown right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Friday looks good in the mountainous jungle of northern Kentucky. Best dynamics are Hoosier Alley but the best moisture hangs up in the South. Strong winds gradually veering with height are a classic hodograph over Hoosier Alley, but no quality moisture up there. The only juxtaposition I can see, and it's shaky, is over the Ohio River Valley jungle. Upper winds are stout over Tennessee, but the LLJ may be AWOL and/or veered off. Plus no west-east boundary. No chase is scheduled. On the positive side (see post 29 previous page) North Alabama gets another pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kperk014 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 On 2/21/2017 at 1:46 PM, nrgjeff said: Friday looks good in the mountainous jungle of northern Kentucky. Best dynamics are Hoosier Alley but the best moisture hangs up in the South. Strong winds gradually veering with height are a classic hodograph over Hoosier Alley, but no quality moisture up there. The only juxtaposition I can see, and it's shaky, is over the Ohio River Valley jungle. Upper winds are stout over Tennessee, but the LLJ may be AWOL and/or veered off. Plus no west-east boundary. No chase is scheduled. On the positive side (see post 29 previous page) North Alabama gets another pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 Euro this afternoon has a better LLJ.Best showalter is around the Mid Valley,-3.GFS is even better -4,maybe we can finally get a good light show,haven't seen one since the start of last winter. For Thursday night into Friday, warm south winds will increase as a low pressure system moves from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. The pressure gradient will strengthen through Friday with sustained winds from 15-25 mph, and gusts near 40 mph. Record warmth is expected Friday. BNA`s current record for Feb 24th is 77 from 1890. As the low pressure system moves to the Great Lakes Friday evening, a trailing cold front will push eastward into the Oh/Tn Valley Regions. SPC has slight and enhanced risk areas to our north, with marginal risk in Tn. Cape values of 1-2k J/kg with deep layer shear >50kt with provide favorable conditions for severe storms by Friday evening. It would not be surprising if the slight risk were expanded southward into our area. Forecast soundings show a capped atmosphere through the day Friday, so not much activity is expected ahead of the cold front. We will have high pops in the forecast for Friday evening, with thunderstorms focusing along a squall line. Although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, our main concern will be damaging wind gusts along the line, and perhaps some minor damage with gradient winds ahead of the front. It appears the greatest severe risk will be over our northwest counties beginning around 6pm, with a lower threat over our southern and Plateau counties as the line moves into more stable air late evening and overnight. Since a fairly fast moving, narrow band is expected, rainfall amounts will be mostly under one half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO MUCH OF INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND THE WESTERN HALF OF OHIO... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast to affect portions of the southern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee on Friday and Friday night. Damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail are possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough/low is forecast to move from the middle MO Valley eastward to the central Great Lakes and OH Valley. Concurrently, a belt of strong and cyclonically curved 500-mb flow is forecast to intensify to 100+ kt over the OH Valley late Friday night. A surface low near the MO/IA border will develop northeastward to southern Lake Michigan by early evening before partially occluding over northern Michigan by early Saturday. A northward-advancing warm front will move from north-central IL and Michiana through southern Lower Michigan by mid-late afternoon. A cold front near the MS River around midday Friday will sweep eastward across the OH and TN Valleys by daybreak Saturday. ...southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... The northeastward advection of an elevated mixed layer and associated steep to very steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8.5 degrees per km) from the south-central states will overspread this region during the morning. A capping inversion will likely limit showers/thunderstorms to be near the advancing warm frontal zone during the morning with mid-upper 50s dewpoints amidst strong southerly low-level flow. By early to mid-afternoon, NAM model guidance indicates temperatures will warm well into the 60s across much of the warm sector compared to the much cooler GFS. The increasing influence of DCVA/500-mb height falls coupled with heating will likely lead to thunderstorms developing into one or more broken bands. Strong effective shear (45-60 kt) coupled with MLCAPE increasing into the 250-1250 J/kg range will support strong to severe thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show moist boundary layers with effective SRH in the 150-200 m2/s2 range over much of the warm sector but locally higher (200-300 m2/s2) over the northern portion of the Enhanced Risk in the Michiana/southern Lower Michigan vicinity. A mixed mode of both linear and cellular (some of which maturing into supercells) is expected during the early half of the convective life cycle. The threats from the more intense storms include damaging winds, large hail, and the possibility for tornadoes. Upscale growth will likely occur during the evening/overnight as storms move eastward across the OH Valley and the severe risk transitions to primarily damaging winds as southwesterly 700-mb flow strengthens to 60-kt. ...Mid South and southern Appalachians... Storm initiation will likely be delayed to the late afternoon/early evening as this area's thunderstorm chances await the arrival of stronger mid-level forcing with convective inhibition gradually eroding. Isolated to widely scattered storms will likely develop southward along a prefrontal convergence band or along the southeastward-moving cold front before growing upscale during the overnight. Cool 500-mb temperatures atop relatively moist low levels implies a surface-based thunderstorm risk after dark. Damaging winds will likely be the primary hazard. However, depending on how quickly upscale growth occurs, a tornado threat may develop as winds strengthen in the 925-700 mb layer and hodographs enlarge. As storms move eastward into the southern Appalachians, diminishing instability will likely coincide with storms' weakening and a lessening severe risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 Slgt risk for you guys in Knoxville. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to affect portions of the southern Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Friday and Friday night. The primary threat appears to be damaging wind, but some hail and a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough -- embedded within broader/longer-wave troughing -- is forecast to shift out of the Plains and across the mid and lower Missouri valley through the day. By evening, the trough is progged to continue eastward across the mid and upper Mississippi Valleys, and eventually into the Midwest/Great Lakes region as it acquires neutral to slightly negative tilt with time. As the upper system advances/sharpens, a surface low in the vicinity of western Illinois early in the day is forecast to move across Illinois and northwestern Indiana through the afternoon, and then across Michigan toward Lake Huron through the latter stages of the period. Ahead of the low, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the lower Great Lakes into southern Canada, while a cold front sweeps eastward across the Ohio/Tennessee/Mississippi valleys and reaches the Appalachian crest by the end of the period. ...Great Lakes region southward to the southern Appalachians... Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing from parts of northeast Illinois/southeast Wisconsin eastward into the northeast U.S. at the start of the period, north of a warm front extending eastward across the Midwest. Modest low-level moisture into the warm sector /50s surface dewpoints/ beneath an elevated mixed layer advecting northeast across the region should keep the warm sector capped -- likely until late afternoon. Eventually however, as the surface low moves northeast toward southern lower Michigan and the trailing cold front advances into Indiana, limited diurnal heating combined with persistent ascent is expected to steadily/gradually weaken the cap, eventually allowing development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Initial storm mode may be cellular, but upscale growth into a broken line of storms is expected, which should expand southward along the advancing front through the evening hours. Though degree of shear will be sufficient for supercells, somewhat veered low-level flow and tendency for more linear storm mode should limit overall tornado potential. Greatest risk for supercell tornadoes should exist during the afternoon with initial convective development, and possibly near the retreating warm front where more backed low-level winds should exist. With time, risk should evolve toward primarily damaging winds, though an isolated QLCS tornado or two, as well as marginally severe hail, will be possible through the evening and into the overnight hours. It appears at this time that the greatest severe risk will exist from late afternoon/early evening through midnight or an hour or two later, across southern lower Michigan, eastern Indiana, western Ohio, and northern Kentucky -- coincident with the Enhanced Risk area. Storms should eventually begin to diminish in intensity given weaker instability expected into the upper Ohio valley/lower Great Lakes region, but risk may linger across the southern Appalachians region through the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO TO NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK AREA...FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO EASTERN TENNESSEE... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast to affect areas from Lower Michigan southward to Tennessee, mainly this afternoon through tonight. The primary threat appears to be damaging wind, but some hail and a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. ...Lower MI to TN through tonight... A well-defined midlevel trough over the mid MO Valley this morning will amplify while progressing eastward to the Great Lakes and OH Valley tonight, as an associated surface cyclone deepens while moving northeastward from west central IL across Lower MI to Lake Huron. Ongoing elevated thunderstorms will persist through the morning across Lower MI in the zone of strong low-level warm advection/frontogenesis immediately north of the eventual cyclone track, with marginally severe hail possible in the strongest storms. Modest low-level moisture (boundary layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s) will spread northward into southern Lower MI beneath an elevated mixed layer, though the cap will likely delay surface-based thunderstorm development until 21-00z. Initial storm development is likely close to the surface cyclone in southern Lower MI, along the northwest edge of the modestly unstable warm sector (MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg). Deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt) will favor semi-discrete supercells with an associated large hail/damaging wind risk into this evening across southern Lower MI. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible as any sustained supercells can interact with the zone of stronger low-level shear (effective SRH 200-300 m2/s2) and sufficient moisture along the surface warm front. Convection will develop southward through the evening as large-scale forcing for ascent/height falls overspread the surface cold front/west part of the warm sector and erode the cap associated with the steep (8-9 C/km) midlevel lapse rates. A mixed convective mode of semi-discrete cells and line segments is expected initially along and just ahead of the cold front, given somewhat boundary-parallel, deep-layer shear vectors and ascent focused along the front. Modest low-level moisture/buoyancy, lingering steep midlevel lapse rates, and 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will support organized line segments and supercells capable of producing damaging winds/isolated large hail. The tornado risk well south into the warm sector is a bit more uncertain given relatively straight hodographs and a tendency toward more linear convection with time. However, there will still be some risk for embedded circulations in the solidifying line of storms which will also be capable of producing damaging gusts well into the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 On 2/18/2017 at 3:30 PM, jaxjagman said: Decent winter time building ridge setting up with the Euro with a ULL to the NW.Euro shows a warm front lifting from the SE states.DP'S would rise with this in the Valley,this should be a decent severe threat with bulk shear coming from the SW the first of the month.Dashboard shows a multi day event during this time frame.Might be over doing the capes in Texas on the 28th,typical Euro in the long range with convection,but it shows capes into 3k plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017 Areas affected...Portions of middle/eastern Tennessee and central/eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242328Z - 250030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms should continue to organize in broken bands across central Kentucky this evening. Storms are also expected to develop southward into middle Tennessee. As they organize and push east, an increasing threat for severe wind gusts should materialize. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is most likely across Kentucky in the near term. DISCUSSION...Approaching mid-level ascent and related moistening/cooling aloft will gradually weaken convective inhibition over the region this evening, with a related uptick in convective coverage expected. Storms have already begun to organize across parts of the Ohio Valley since approximately 22Z, and this trend should persist. Furthermore, cells may continue to develop farther south into middle Tennessee this evening. As storms push eastward, they will likely evolve into small bands/bowing segments, aided by relatively uni-directional southwesterly flow in the low/mid levels. Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates will foster ample evaporative cooling in stronger downdrafts. As such, stronger storms will be capable of occasional severe-wind gusts this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 HRRR looks totally lost ,RAP looks more reasonable per last radar scans for you out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Better than nothing Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 746 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2017 TNZ059-060-250230- Williamson TN-Maury TN- 746 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2017 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MAURY AND CENTRAL WILLIAMSON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CST... At 745 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Columbia, moving northeast at 50 mph. Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Franklin, Columbia, Brentwood, Spring Hill, Thompson`s Station, Santa Fe, Thompsons Station, I-65 East Of Columbia and Triune. LAT...LON 3566 8721 3604 8685 3589 8661 3587 8662 3584 8660 3583 8663 3582 8661 3581 8662 3581 8661 3579 8661 3579 8666 3577 8666 3575 8670 3573 8670 3570 8675 3571 8677 3569 8680 3566 8681 3553 8705 TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 230DEG 45KT 3565 8706 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 25, 2017 Author Share Posted February 25, 2017 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017 Valid 281200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe-thunderstorm potential will focus during the Tuesday-Wednesday (Days 4-5) period. Medium-range models (GFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET) and ensembles are coming into better agreement regarding the evolution of a larger-scale mid-level trough moving from the western states eastward to the MS Valley on Wednesday. The trough subsequently exits the east coast on Thursday and severe potential will likely remain low through Saturday (Day 8) as surface high pressure resides over the central Gulf Coast. ...Arkansas and surrounding states on Tuesday-Tuesday night... Low-level moisture will contribute to increased buoyancy within a broad warm-air-advection regime downstream of the mid-level trough. A cold front is forecast to move into the western part of this area late Tuesday along with an increasing risk for severe thunderstorms. ...lower MS Valley and TN Valley on Wednesday... Strong belt of mid-level flow coupled with increasing low-level moisture will probably support marginal-moderate buoyancy with a strong shear profile. The timing of a cold front appears to converge on Wednesday as it sweeps through the area. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast, some of which could be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 https://www.weather.gov/ohx/swaw2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 25 Feb 2017 1011.38 1010.10 -16.62 -2.23 -0.31 26 Feb 2017 1012.16 1008.65 -5.91 -2.31 -0.45 27 Feb 2017 1013.67 1007.75 5.67 -2.00 -0.42 Guess we'll see how this plays out,SOI rose over 20 points into the end of Feb.Looks like multi systems going through East Asia in a couple days.TThe dashboard has been showing a severe threat the last couple days as well as Cips is showing a severe threat into the plains and western Valley today,Also checking out Organic forecasting they show a ridge in the east.Some one is going to fail into the mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 Maybe another severe system like we just seen?Who knows but certainly a time frame to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 Looking interesting into the end of March into April.MJO should be into the IO during this time.Enso 3.4 has just recently again went back negative with a big burst around the IDL that looks to last 4-5 days.1+2 right now is positive 2,good TNI index at this time with region 4 being around positive 0.3.Looking at Josh Herman's map of the SOI upcoming as soon as the burst leaves around the IDL it should spike up upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 4, 2017 Author Share Posted March 4, 2017 Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Mar 03 2017 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Mar 18 2017-Fri Mar 31 2017 Signals from canonical climate patterns are currently week. There is currently a transition to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions from the La Nina of this past winter. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently active with convection located over the eastern Indian Ocean, however most dynamical model forecasts indicate a weakening of the projection of tropical atmospheric conditions onto MJO in the next week or two. The influence of climate patterns on the current state are expected to be limited, and the present Week 3/4 outlook is based primarily on dynamical model guidance and the predicted evolution of the pattern from the current Week-2 outlook. Dynamical model guidance, from the ECMWF, NCEP CFS and JMA for the Week 3/4 period shows a fair amount of disagreement for the predicted mean 500-hPa height pattern over North America. The ECMWF and JMA predict a deep trough and below normal 500-hPa heights over the northern Pacific, centered to the south of the Aleutian Islands. These two ensemble systems predict ridging and above normal mid-level heights downstream of the trough over Canada and over the western CONUS. Relative troughing and a weakness in above normal heights are indicated over the U.S. Southwest into the Southern Plains in the ECMWF and JMA forecasts. The NCEP CFS forecasts an alternative 500-hPa height pattern, with troughing and below normal heights over Alaska and western North America, somewhat east of the location of troughing in the ECMWF and JMA model forecasts. Ridging and above normal heights are displaced eastward, and are centered over eastern Canada in the CFS. While the forecast period average circulation patterns of the various models show disagreement, the temperature and precipitation forecasts from the available ensemble prediction systems of the ECMWF, NCEP CFS, and JMA are in fairly good agreement on the pattern over North America. Models generally indicate below normal temperatures are more likely for southern Alaska under anomalously northerly flow and below normal mid-level heights over the Aleutian Islands. A statistical forecast that combines the MJO pattern with decadal trends indicates below normal temperatures are more likely for southern Alaska, consistent with the dynamical model consensus. Below normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, with predicted above median precipitation for the region in week 2, carrying into week 3 and 4 in the model forecasts. Temperature forecasts for Week 3/4 from the dynamical models are in agreement on likely above normal temperatures for the Southwest, the Southern Plains, and the Gulf Coast. Above normal temperatures are also most likely for the northern Great Lakes region and New England, as indicated by dynamical models. The ECMWF and JMA models indicate weak temperature signals over most of the central Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Mid-Atlantic region. In contrast, regressions on the current MJO phase indicate a lagged temperature pattern for the Week 3/4 period with probable above normal temperatures over the eastern CONUS, which is consistent with the decadal trends, and more similar to the CFS forecast. The disagreement in the temperature forecast tools for this region indicate greater uncertainty, such that equal chances of above and below normal temperatures were indicated in the outlook. Dynamical model forecasts from the ECMWF, CFS and JMA ensembles are in relative agreement on the precipitation forecast for the Week 3/4 period. There is consensus on likely below median precipitation for the Southwest, to the south of the predicted Pacific Jet, while near median precipitation is predicted for the Pacific Northwest, and above median precipitation is more likely for the Northern Plains region. Above median precipitation is predicted to be most likely for the lower and central Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley regions, with moisture drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico in model forecasts. Above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii due to anomalously warm sea surface temperatures and anomalous southwesterly flow in the dynamical model forecasts. Dynamical model guidance from the ECMWF and JMA model forecasts consistently indicate below median precipitation for Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 The whole 2017 season looks interesting. El Nino attempt has slowed down, which is favorable to remain in the Transition phase between Nina and Nino. Good people can debate the TNI, but the trend is the chaser's friend. Trough west ridge east seems almost locked. Even if it falls apart in May, I think April will be active in the Plains. In the short-term the Mid South looks active in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 6 hours ago, nrgjeff said: The whole 2017 season looks interesting. El Nino attempt has slowed down, which is favorable to remain in the Transition phase between Nina and Nino. Good people can debate the TNI, but the trend is the chaser's friend. Trough west ridge east seems almost locked. Even if it falls apart in May, I think April will be active in the Plains. In the short-term the Mid South looks active in March. Figures it would want to turn cold now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 The weeklies are wrong. No worries. 15 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Figures it would want to turn cold now (hopefully no worries, lol) Meanwhile today low level winds are backed nicely in North Alabama and North Georgia. Too bad other junk rain is also in progress. Need some breaks of sun to my south and west to even get a shelfie with the main line later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 9, 2017 Author Share Posted March 9, 2017 ...Ozarks to Tennessee Valley... Multiple rounds of convection are likely across the region today, leading off with isolated non-severe thunderstorms ongoing over the LA/AR border region and shifting eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley toward MS this morning. Additional elevated convection may form later this morning along the leading portions of the low-level warm-advection regime over southeastern KS. Strengthening of the 850-mb height gradient (and the associated LLJ) is forecast despite the diurnal timing, as the mid/upper-level perturbation approaches, contributing to a favorable combination of warm-advection related increase in moisture/thetae, destabilization, isentropic lift to LFC, and storm-relative inflow. Activity should shift east-southeastward across southern MO and perhaps northern AR this afternoon. Depending on the equatorward extent of near-surface static-stability reinforcement by either: (a) its own outflow or (b) additional, likely surface-based activity to its south, ...some of the convection also may become surface-based this afternoon, as boundary-layer warming/mixing lowers the altitude of inflow-layer parcels. As such, the occurrence and breadth of such favorable destabilization is conditional and uncertain, but may contribute to an expanded damaging-wind area with eastward extent in concert with the next probable convective regime discussed below. Additional development is expected either along the southern rim of the initial/elevated activity and/or its outflow-reinforced boundary, moving east-southeastward in a CAPE/shear parameter space favorable both for supercells and bow echoes. Despite the somewhat weak (about 10 kt), veered (south-southwesterly to southwesterly) character of the surface flow, forecast soundings from locations with surface-based inflow parcels show the presence of veering with height into the LLJ layer. This yields elongated/curved low-level hodographs with effective SRH in the 200-350 J/kg range -- enough to yield favorable SRH for supercells, in addition to the development of 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Surface dew points increasing into the mid 50s to low 60s F in the moist-sector return flow, and diurnal heating, should combine to boost preconvective MLCAPE to the 1000-2000 J/kg range mid-late afternoon. The main uncertainty on tornado threat, and to some extent large hail as well, will be how quickly a transition occurs from supercellular to clustered/bowing convective mode. Ultimately, a forward-propagating MCS with damaging-wind potential should evolve from these initial convective regimes. This activity would move east-southeastward across parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South. At least marginal wind potential (and perhaps more) exists with cold-pool-forced activity extending well into tonight across the Tennessee Valley region, in spite of a diabatically stabilizing boundary layer. A more conditional threat exists over eastern OK and western AR for convection to either backbuild southwestward from the primary Ozarks complex or develop in a zone of frontal convergence this evening and overnight. Guidance reasonably is inconsistent with this possibility, given its strong dependence on the influence of forward-propagational/cold-pool processes of the second-phase development discussed above. Unconditional marginal probabilities are expended southward somewhat to account for this scenario, but uncertainty is too great to do a greater upgrade at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 73 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Missouri Bootheel Western Tennessee * Effective this Thursday night from 645 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms over southern MO will continue to track southeastward and into parts of northern AR/western MO this evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats, but an isolated tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west southwest of Harrison AR to 50 miles east of Jackson TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Think any of this popcorn forming ahead of the main storm could swell into severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Witness Protection Program said: Think any of this popcorn forming ahead of the main storm could swell into severe? Ones on the ground in Mo,big hail also.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 Well yeah, that's what I called the main storm. I mean the stuff already popping up in TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 10, 2017 Author Share Posted March 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Witness Protection Program said: Well yeah, that's what I called the main storm. I mean the stuff already popping up in TN. i doubt it,HRRR shows this but it doesnt develop into anything,main MCS looks to be the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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