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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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I had really hoped to see more coastal storms tracking inside to well inside the benchmark (even if rainers or mixed events here)....the snow drought nw of here in parts of upstate NY and central southwestern parts of NE (central, central northern VT, NH away from lake effect/upslope) is epic

a little relief so far for nw mass but small potatoes thus far and as crappy as the pattern is overall we are left with the biggest event of the winter thus far hitting the same areas including nyc metro so even in the crappiest of patterns when there is a coastal it favors e/se zones...

even in the crap winter of 11-12 sans the ridiculous October event it was one good size event that hit se zones, the consistency is remarkable

the kind of coastals I am referring to are mid march, feb 07....dec early jan 03....and so on

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13 minutes ago, 512high said:

Hi Scott, Stupid question( as usual) this clipper  that is coming, doesn't that usually usher colder air after it pushes through? Or is it coming in steps, towards week end?  

Tomorrow will be U30s or so. And then gradually cooler into the weekend. Nothing bitter though.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So instead of vague references to a bunch of warm cutters. Have we lost the good pattern  for Feb that everyone was excited about yesterday and previous days? Do we mail it in on winter ? Crazy how one bad ENS run had everyone doom and gloom

We could really torch next week for a couple of days ahead of that cutter. Not sure after that. The PNA does rise again on the ensembles. 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So instead of vague references to a bunch of warm cutters. Have we lost the good pattern  for Feb that everyone was excited about yesterday and previous days? Do we mail it in on winter ? Crazy how one bad ENS run had everyone doom and gloom

Let's see...SB system is mostly gone now...still hints of it but it might end up being nothing which is why I typically don't try and track these things from 11 days out. 

The system behind it always had cutter potential...we mentioned specifically that we could risk a cutter in this pattern. Right now it looks very cutterish...could change...but right now I'd keep expectations on that system quite low. 

Behind that looks like we may get a decent PNA ridge. We lose the EPO blocking (it may come back though of weeklies are correct) so it won't be all that cold I don't think but the PNA ridge could give additional storm chances. We will see. 

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So in response to Kevin's questions in both threads, it is clear that our mets have shifted in their feeling about the longer range.  Late last week it seemed to be a feeling of clear or cautious optimism...that we were moving in a good direction...and now we aren't, at least over the next 10 days...and beyond that is a question mark.  This is most definitely a marked change that started to emerge yesterday and is here with strength this morning. 

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