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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snowy next 2 weeks or so.

Tomorrow's solid event and SuperBowl Sunday night / Monday for starters. Should be extended period of nice snowcover and then we'll see what happens after the 15th

Morch??   Seriously, though looking forward to this extended period of snow cover.  Brown is boring.

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3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Saw 2.2" and still snowing nicely from a Cape May peep on the Philly subforum a couple hours ago.  My #2 granddaughter turned 9 yesterday and loves snow - would've made a nice present.  However, they're 2 counties north of the cape and too far inland, probably got weenie flakes at best.

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It's fascinating ...albeit tedious to note, that the the Euro of all model types is the one that fails much amplitude in the east in the late middle range/ext period - at least less than the GFS operational.  Usually the opposite is true.  heh. 

In any event... the culprit dynamics appears to be a southern stream system that gets forced back into the flow as a opening close low of the west coast. It comes in through southern California and through the SW (similar actually to the even that turned into a kitchen sink Noreaster a little while back), then... the million dollar question.  

The GFS and a few of it's ensemble members like the idea of interacting Canadian jet energy ... offering a partial phase.  NCEP notes this too - 



This was/is the signal I mentioned when this thread started... It's actually Fe 5 - 7 but... we could argue that another is out there in the very nebular vision of D11-14 and so forth. 

Anyway, for me a lot of this will come down to two keys:  one, the ambient heights and wind velocities int he deep south, prior to the trough ejection in the west, need to remain closer to nominal relative to normal or that southern stream component of all that will have trouble maintaining a coherent signature/mechanical presence as it whisks east across the south;  two, the ejection out of the Pacific needs to be of sufficient strength, both to over come said limitations from the deep south; but for phasing interests a stronger southern wave can "entice" the N-stream to dig more and ...that get's into a subsume scenario.  

The 00z GFS shows more of the latter in both regards. The Euro...heh, no so much.  But, there's time to correct either way. With the PNA rising so well in all agencies that monitor the thing .. combined with antecedent -EPO to load cold... the table is set for larger synoptic -scaled events.  So I'm actually less inclined to lean toward a blase' Euro notion of damping out the southern stream all but totally...and just bringing in a strong N-stream cold front.  Not impossible...no, but there is growing support for more.  

Damn heights in the deep south though - they can persist either way and smear things up . 

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That post SB system has some legs. It's been showing up on guidance across multiple models now for a few days. Track has been pretty consistent all things considered for the lead time. I'd be shocked if it didn't pan out. Sure to be some waffling between now and then but its got my attention.

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SNE Weenies aren't going to like me but regarding the post SB storm I think ptype issues will be the story for much of SNE ex the far interior of the region.

Deep shortwave over the Central CONUS, -PNA + NAO, with poor high position. We've seen this before....A better antecedent airmass is the only thing keeping this slightly interesting for most of SNE right now imo.

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

SNE Weenies aren't going to like me but regarding the post SB storm I think ptype issues will be the story for much of SNE ex the far interior of the region.

Deep shortwave over the Central CONUS, -PNA + NAO, with poor high position. We've seen this before....A better antecedent airmass is the only thing keeping this slightly interesting for most of SNE right now imo.

-PNA?

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