powderfreak Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah verbatim that is great for ALB-BTV corridor. Anyways, just fodder at the moment. The Euro isby far the most wrapped up. Some guidance doesn't even have a storm really. A compromise would be fine for central/eastern posters. No doubt whatever happens will be good for eastern sections, ha. This run is tossed as it has significant snow falling from ALB to BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah verbatim that is great for ALB-BTV corridor. Anyways, just fodder at the moment. The Euro isby far the most wrapped up. Some guidance doesn't even have a storm really. A compromise would be fine for central/eastern posters. This one has been off and on the models, Looks like it phased both streams this run as the Northern stream had been out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, Zeus said: Wouldn't that require you to pull out of the collective population of Thailand long enough to travel domestically? Well well well! Look who it is. I'll just sleep on your couch since you miss me so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 MPM would have nothing to moan about if that came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: MPM would have nothing to moan about if that came to fruition. Oh he'd find something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well well well! Look who it is. I'll just sleep on your couch since you miss me so much. But we're hardly getting 15" of snow in the verbatim Euro eventuality. Why bother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, Zeus said: But we're hardly getting 15" of snow in the verbatim Euro eventuality. Why bother? A lot of that falls Sunday/Sunday night in metrowest anyway...pretty good snowstorm outside of 128. Thursday is so far amped on the Euro compared to other guidance, I wouldn't even treat it much more politely than a single GFS ensemble member at this time lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A lot of that falls Sunday/Sunday night in metrowest anyway...pretty good snowstorm outside of 128. Thursday is so far amped on the Euro compared to other guidance, I wouldn't even treat it much more politely than a single GFS ensemble member at this time lead. I'm trying to keep Yosemite Sam off my gorgeous leather couch, here. How about working with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Is that PDIII a couple days early Or is it V Day II a couple of days late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Putting all sources of signaling out on the table and splaying them out ... seems there are evenly as many pros as cons for the Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 So long as it is being bandied about ... not surprising, NCEP analogs for the system next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So long as it is being bandied about ... not surprising, NCEP analogs for the system next week: lol I saw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Jimmy's FEB 78' analog finally appears and he's AWOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Jimmy's FEB 78' analog finally appears and he's AWOL. That's Steve's analog. Jimmy's is always Jan 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: So long as it is being bandied about ... not surprising, NCEP analogs for the system next week: I'm really searching to find something wrong with that map, And i see nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That's Steve's analog. Jimmy's is always Jan 2005. Either 2005 or his own fanfiction storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Not a surprise that the ensembles are not like the op next week, but man that's close to a great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 What's intriguing for me about that is the arm of 500 hPa heights threatening to lobe over the top of the subsuming SPV fragment as it comes south. in 1978, that was also present but actually somewhat west up closer to Manitoba and NW James Bay region; also different, back then the intense regional subsidence/confluence from top-down produced a mammoth anticyclone that topped around 1050+ ...sprawling across the breadth of the Canadian shield. It had a 1035+ mb arm that hugged NE England ...and so forth that structure et al HUGELY fed back into storm kinematics as the 500 hPa lob came down and captured the lower tropospheric cyclogenesis taking place from the lower OV to off the M/A (also, there was a weak disturbance scooting east of GA that got sucked up into the fray and ingested subtropical theta-e right into the bear's cage).. That's getting into particulars.. But the point is, this evolution/comparison to 1978, as was hinted on the 00z operational Euro (well, it's been off and on hinted for days among various GEF and EPS members) and now even more elaborately on the 12z operational Euro lacks the surface high as described above, over Canada. However, that's ... correctable (not that we need anything corrected with a solution like this...Jesus). In fact, the surface PP looks underdone given that Euro's mid/U/A flow structure as it is... We'll see. Could all fall apart, of course. But, I will say, both the PNA and NAO really down to the week show a remarkable similarity to what transpired back whence ... not surprising the actual model 500 hPa heights are thusly - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Zeus said: I'm trying to keep Yosemite Sam off my gorgeous leather couch, here. How about working with me? **** yo couch! And Will is right, Euro is on its own with this one...I'll keep my powder (and your couch) dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: **** yo couch! And Will is right, Euro is on it's own with this one...I'll keep my powder (and your couch) dry. Yes yes. We'll talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The EPS mean is still a pretty strong storm somewhere off the coast. At least it isn't just the OP showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I'll sell on a track that far west with very high degree of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll sell on a track that far west with very high degree of confidence. Split the difference between 00z and 12z location and SLP and we'd be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 I am so sorry xcited. Big snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said: The EPS mean is still a pretty strong storm somewhere off the coast. At least it isn't just the OP showing it. 500 hpa was droolworthy IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Trough continues to outrun the ULL on the GFS. On a quasi-related note, I've heard the GFS has a bias of moving the northern stream too quickly. Anything know if that's actually a thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoth said: 500 hpa was droolworthy IMO. NBC 30 in CT (Ryan's station) has a first alert weather day for Wed night/Thursday next week, in response to that signal of a potential storm in that time period. Tip, could this be one of those situations where the truly big events shine a LIL brighter out there in the distance?? Some big signals are evident though for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: NBC 30 in CT (Ryan's station) has a first alert weather day for Wed night/Thursday next week, in response to that signal of a potential storm in that time period. Tip, could this be one of those situations where the truly big events shine a LIL brighter out there in the distance?? Some big signals are evident though for this time frame. Huh? You mean its possible they might have a first alert weather day during that timeframe? I doubt they would schedule a first alert weather day for a day 6 fantasy storm showing up on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Huh? You mean its possible they might have a first alert weather day during that timeframe? I doubt they would schedule a first alert weather day for a day 6 fantasy storm showing up on the euro. They did exactly that! RYAN mentioned it during the 5:30 news. And Brad Field mentioned it again during his segment during the 6:00 news. Saying there were signs of a system, and there was a first alert weather day for Wed/Thur. Brad mentioned that one model was showing a big storm, and cited the Euro. They said they were watching that Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Trough continues to outrun the ULL on the GFS. On a quasi-related note, I've heard the GFS has a bias of moving the northern stream too quickly. Anything know if that's actually a thing? It deff was the case back in the day. I still think it does have a progressive bias so last several winters which has been in a mostly progressive flow, it can score coops. Havent really seen it perform in blocky patterns lately cuz we havent had them lol. So Im interested to see the battle that ensues between it vs euro with this is. Theres no excuses here, textbook upper air charts....either euro does what it does best and sh*ts on the gfs here or we can literally put to rest the idea that it is so superior we ignore the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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