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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Depends on which event. Sunday I would for you. Monday is very tricky...need more time.

wait we have a small event tonite into sat am.

Then separate events Sunday and Monday or just a prolonged deal with a better shot of cashing in Sunday. 

6z nam barely stops the snow for NE mass Saturday before the Meso low SN showers move in 

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually liked 12z better.

This one starts off digging more than 12z, but it is a bit more progressive. It's pretty cold though...its mostly snow for SNE north of the pike and away from the coast.

The 12z (yesterday) Euro Op was a bit better for all vs 00z.

2 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

Will and others similar to him can critique me...

Thought euro ensembles looked better than the op. Looks like secondary surface low is south of op. The midlevels would suggest plowable. Closed 5h off the Cape.

However, the 00z Ensemble took a nice step in the right direction.  The cluster became more organized and shifted southwest.  Something to keep an eye on.

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

depends what your anticipating

Those euro weenie maps are not happening, or should i say i see very little shot of a foot of snow anywhere in NE mass but well see if thing can go gangbusters like it almost did last nite then that happens. I'm imagining high end advisory low end warning up here.

Yea....exactly.

I could see like 4-8" maybe....but not feeling a big event here.

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Man, there is just a bright bright signal in the GEF's derived teleconnector spread and evolution for a bigger event mid-end business week but the operational GFS just refuses to really do anything other than create an entangled mess of intra-long-wave negative inferences... 

Meanwhile, the Euro (oper.) evolved a classic subsume scenario - very 1978'esque actually, perilously missing the region with the storm of the season. 

 

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42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man, there is just a bright bright signal in the GEF's derived teleconnector spread and evolution for a bigger event mid-end business week but the operational GFS just refuses to really do anything other than create an entangled mess of intra-long-wave negative inferences... 

Meanwhile, the Euro (oper.) evolved a classic subsume scenario - very 1978'esque actually, perilously missing the region with the storm of the season. 

 

Jebus, Tip, you ain't kidding. I've been so myopically entranced by yesterday's and this weekend's evolutions, I totally overlooked the longer range. The signal has been there a while, but wow. Exotic. Back that puppy a few hundred miles west and lawd help us all.

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