ORH_wxman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 38 minutes ago, Morch Madness said: Would like to see a model besides the Euro pick up on this for SNE. Though it's probably the only model that can be on its own and still be taken seriously Ukie has it and so does JMA....GFS is too far north right now for much snow...maybe a little. GGEM ironaically is a bit too far south...it doesn't get going until east of us. It does give a couple inches though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 How're the GEFS for Vday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 18z GFS took a step in the right direction. Gets it going a little late, but is alot colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: 18z GFS took a step in the right direction. Gets it going a little late, but is alot colder The trend is our friend. Still time to get this right. EURO for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Amazing Hope that storm trends south so we can all cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Amazing Hope that storm trends south so we can all cash in This is New England. We hope you rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is New England. We hope you rain. Harsh...But accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is New England. We hope you rain. This is NNE... we hope SNE rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: This is NNE... we hope SNE rains. You don't like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You don't like snow. I don't like light snow that takes all day to get 5 inches. I love heavy precip no matter what form it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I hope It rains in SNE too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, The Graupler said: I hope It rains in SNE too Lincoln NH FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, The Graupler said: I hope It rains in SNE too Are you dangerous danny davis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Seems like a precarious setup for Alb to Bos south. Feels like a thread the needle for southern areas unless it really digs. NNE could really cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 32 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is New England. We hope you rain. This. Word is that Shelburne got 6". I knew we were on the outskirts, but that sucks. Still snowing at a good clip up here in Maine. 13* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 This thread is useless without Kuchera maps #KuKuKuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 I'm struggling to see how the GFS improved. I see how it got colder but it's also more progressive than 12z. Not that it matters much for me as the ceiling is pretty low here imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I'm struggling to see how the GFS improved. I see how it got colder but it's also more progressive than 12z. Not that it matters much for me as the ceiling is pretty low here imo. Not our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Need Robert to start a thread (at appropriate time) on this to keep juju rolling. It has legs! GOOFuS is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 Fantastic tantalizing WPC discussion for New England, particularly CNE and NNE: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1057 AM EST THU FEB 09 2017 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 12 2017 - 12Z THU FEB 16 2017 PATTERN OVERVIEW/GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A PERSISTENT CENTRAL TO EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH....WITH DOWNSTREAM HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS FAVORS A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE MODELS SHOW 2 DISTINCT WAVES CROSSING THE REGION...WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMATION OCCURRING NEAR THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...PROVIDING POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR PRECIPITATION AND WIND/WAVE EVENT. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES FROM THE DAKOTAS MON TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW YORK WED. TRIPLE POINT LOW REDEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT EITHER IN THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. THE DEBATE ON THIS SYSTEM IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH PHASING OCCURS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-UPPER TROUGH...WHICH STARTS AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF OPERATIONAL/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MOVE THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY FASTER THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/PHASING FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE GFS AND ALSO BETWEEN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ALSO BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND ITS ENSEMBLE LEAN. THE FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A SLOWER MOTION TO THIS SYSTEM AS NO KICKER SHORTWAVES APPEAR TO BE PRESENT TO EJECT THE LOW QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS WERE ON THE SLOWER PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE DISTRIBUTION...THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE BLEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE SLOWER MOTION BEING MORE CORRECT. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z NAEFS MEAN WERE IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT AND INCLUDED AS WELL. THE DAYS 3-7 FORECASTS WERE BASED ON MAINLY AN 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/06Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND WITH MORE WEIGHTING TO THE MEANS NEXT THU 16 FEB. WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE..SYSTEMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SLOW TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. A FEW OF THE RUNS HAVE A STORM APPROACHING CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST DURING NEXT THU 16 FEB...WITH THE SLOWER GFS INCLUDED IN THE BLEND AS A COUNTER TO FASTER ECMWF/CANADIAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION. WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE 2 BIG STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AND/OR SNOW FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 4 MON 13 DEF AND DAYS 6 WED 13 FEB INTO DAY 7 THU 14 FEB. THERE ARE MULTIPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1-2 FEET OF SNOW WITH GOOD CLUSTERING ON THE MON EVENT AND BIGGER SPREAD ON THE WED-THU POTENTIAL EVENT IN IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE DRIFTS EAST, IT SHOULD PROMOTE A THREAT FOR HEAVY RNFL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE NEXT PACIFIC CYCLONE OFF THE COAST DAY 7 16 FEB MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN COASTAL AREAS FROM NORTHERN CA NORTH ACROSS WESTERN OR AND WA. THE MOST ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE DAY 3 FROM TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL. SOME DAILY RECORDS FOR HIGHS/WARM MINIMA ARE PSBL. THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY ALSO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DAYS 3-4 BEFORE REVERTING CLOSER TO NORMAL MID WEEK. THE BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE OUT WEST SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS A WIDE PORTION OF THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST US DAYS 4-7. PETERSEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I'm struggling to see how the GFS improved. I see how it got colder but it's also more progressive than 12z. Not that it matters much for me as the ceiling is pretty low here imo. I agree...its colder because there is less warm air advection since cyclogenesis is meager at this latitude. Run sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 27 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I'm struggling to see how the GFS improved. I see how it got colder but it's also more progressive than 12z. Not that it matters much for me as the ceiling is pretty low here imo. Earlier cyclogenesis south of LI. The earlier cyclogenesis occurs the better chance it goes through full synoptic wave developnwnt while still close enough to give us significant snow. -NAO , --AO, ++ PNA; best combo for a MECS. And we have a well modeled deep UL trough over the eastern CONUS coinciding with a potent disturbance (shortwave). All of eastern NE and NYC metro should be very interested in this one. I like this one. A LOT. The -NAO, which we didn't have this time, will also help to slow this guy down as he travels NE and rapidly intensifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Earlier cyclogenesis south of LI. The earlier cyclogenesis occurs the better chance it goes through full synoptic wave developnwnt while still close enough to give us significant snow. -NAO , --AO, ++ PNA; best combo for a MECS. And we have a well modeled deep UL trough over the eastern CONUS and with a potent disturbance (shortwave). All of eastern NE and NYC metro should be very interested in this one. I like this one. A LOT. The -NAO, which we didn't have this time, will also help to slow this guy down as he travels NE and rapidly intensifies. This is wrong. Assuming you are comparing 18z to 12z..the trend is the opposite because H5 is more progressive. Not saying we won't end up with a storm, but that run was a step in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 For Monday, us southerners need the trough in the Soutwest to be weaker or further west, which will allow more "dig room" in the East. Or, the block showing up to the east of Greenland needs to be a bit stronger, or more westward. Perhaps the two go together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This wrong. Assuming you are comparing 18z to 12z..the trend is the opposite because H5 is more progressive. No its not, H5 closes off faster relative to 12z. The wave moves in/out earlier but that does not count for "progressive". To me H5 improved, and is less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 18z looked better to me but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 H5 closes off faster on 18z. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, jbenedet said: No its not, H5 closes off faster relative to 12z. The wave moves in/out earlier but that does not count for "progressive". To me H5 improved, and is less progressive. Well, it closed just as earlier last run, at least on the large scale CONUS graphics....but it is deeper this run. I looked at the more progressive trough and huge QPF cut. SLP is not any deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 It's a real nice piece of energy for sure. Someone will have a lot of fun, but my money's on Sunday River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 9, 2017 Share Posted February 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: H5 closes off faster on 18z. 18z 12z Fair enough.....those graphics are better than the CONUS weather ball charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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