Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 I joked about this a month ago but heh... I'll be damned if it isn't actually looking like a March 1956 (or was it 1957?) ... type of winter. Not so much that it will all happen in March this go ..but the idea of being like 90% back-ass loaded. ... There are two near misses on this 00z GFS that if things modulated like a pube overall and most climo sites from the MA to NE go quite some distance toward adjusting their seasonal snowfall totals... That stream interaction out around 200-240 hours is really f close to being one of those subsume scenarios... Then, the model tries to do again like 5 days later. Impressive run really... Plus, the ideas put forth by the teleoconnectors yesterday haven't changed. Still a pretty impressive convergence of signals over eastern N/A ... MJO is wildly powerful into the 8th wave space, at the same time the PNA is rising boldly to some +3 SD... In fact, those two teleconnectors tend to positively interfere/construct one another so that's really a steep signal for the flow in western Canada man. And, the NAO is trying to edge negative... Somehwere out there around D8-12 there is pretty hefty signal folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2017 Author Share Posted February 7, 2017 There also small event that Will mentioned early Saturday showing up .. but, more importantly perhaps, there's a D 6/7 'between' event prior to the louder teleconnector signal that D8+ That one's showing up on multiple GEF members, including the Euro and GFS operational runs... It's a quick mover with high favorably placed up N to force a higher latitude secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It does look tantalizing doesn't it - I think the SPV elongation is tempting but ... it's just littttle too strong there. The wave timing is in sync but not so much the wave space there. The southern stream impulse could instantiate the western end of the SPV to come south/fragment off the total structure up there, and then the phasing commences... yadda yadda ... 1978 sort of deal. That's what led to Feb 5-7 1978 was a subsume phase.. An intermediate/southern stream impulse lowered the resistance south of a SPV fragmentation and down she came... assuming/bullying the wave space and the two absolutely partied their asses off east of Long Island. That evolution above is similar - possibly - if only in spirit. The details surrounding it don't look very comparable, however, so total analog is probably low. fascinating nonetheless Yes, as presently shown the storm is probably like 1/30/10 or 2/5/10, more of a southern slider. As I said in the NYC threads, there is definitely a chance that the event ends up suppressed due to the SPV in Quebec. However, there's also potential for a polar vortex phase which could be similar to Feb '78 or Mar '93 as a piece of that SPV could drop south and phase in...the event would bump north but the poleward nature of the PNA ridge should lock in a cold airmass with Arctic origins. This isn't your typical PNA ridge with modified western Canadja air; this is a highly amplified ridge that taps the Arctic, and even, on some models, Siberian cross-polar flow. Very intruguing opportunities in the next 3-4 weeks. Ignoring the "winter's over " talk and instead looking at strat warming, MJO-induced +PNA, and reactivated southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Just had to post this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Clipper looks on track too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 And the Day 9 5h look is tasty as has been discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And the Day 9 5h look is tasty as has been discussed. I'll take the Day 16 look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Euro Clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Euro Clipper? 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I joked about this a month ago but heh... I'll be damned if it isn't actually looking like a March 1956 (or was it 1957?) ... type of winter. 1956. That's when Norfolk in NW CT had 77" for the month. We had 24" in NNJ from the 18-19 storm, earliest memory of a truly big snowfall. (Was 21 months old in Dec 1947.) Later GFS runs are the tastiest I've seen in 2 years. Thursday's event has gone from a whiff to possible advisory level for central Maine (temps suggest ratios in the 15-20 range, if moisture is there), then a qpf bomb early next week. Still time for multiple fails, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 GFS has our mid month snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 That is a snowy run of the gfs for most of the northeast. Most places have over 15" by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS has our mid month snowstorm That's a helluva wide-spanning storm on the GFS mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 In other news, Saturday is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 roids r us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Absolutely comical GFS run. Has the Saturday clipper... a SW flow event Sunday into Monday... and another clipper on Tuesday. That is all within a week. it then has a storm coming up late next week that looks big. At least a half dozen chances for snow that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Absolutely comical GFS run. Has the Saturday clipper... a SW flow event Sunday into Monday... and another clipper on Tuesday. That is all within a week. it then has a storm coming up late next week that looks big. At least a half dozen chances for snow that run Wish there was a "like" button here somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 GGEM also has the big storm a week from now...potentially exciting times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: GGEM also has the big storm a week from now...potentially exciting times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Still a nice look to the clipper Saturday morning. 1-3/2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Can see how far NW that band gets..up into S VT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 That's orographics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Still a nice look to the clipper Saturday morning. 1-3/2-4 snowiest week of the winter? this might be it.. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can see how far NW that band gets..up into S VT. Quote Half of that QPF, maybe more, in SVT is from last night---- overnight rain/sleet/ZR from initialization time until this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Saturday could overperform Another event Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another event Sunday night. That's prob gonna be liquid for most of us in SNE. Maybe a bit of ZR to start...or even a flake or three north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That's prob gonna be liquid for most of us in SNE. Maybe a bit of ZR to start...or even a flake or three north of the pike. Possible though with hints of a secondary we may be able to ice decently with deep pack and low level cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Possible though with hints of a secondary we may be able to ice decently with deep pack and low level cold There have been a couple runs here and there that try and keep us frozen, but the Euro has been pretty stubbornly against that idea...hopefully it comes more on board. At the very least, I'd take part of the event being frozen and a quick FROPA so that we don't really do any damage to the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There have been a couple runs here and there that try and keep us frozen, but the Euro has been pretty stubbornly against that idea...hopefully it comes more on board. At the very least, I'd take part of the event being frozen and a quick FROPA so that we don't really do any damage to the pack. You know that's what he's getting at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2017 Share Posted February 8, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There have been a couple runs here and there that try and keep us frozen, but the Euro has been pretty stubbornly against that idea...hopefully it comes more on board. At the very least, I'd take part of the event being frozen and a quick FROPA so that we don't really do any damage to the pack. Yeah ice to 38 or something would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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