ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Winds are more N-NNW so not even CJ worthy. Might be Bruce Willis on the NW side of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Might be Bruce Willis on the NW side of the precip shield. I thought about that. I'm usually not a fan of pressing cold on downslope NNW flow and a burgeoning precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seemed similar, but I'm mobile and it's difficult to compare. Maybe someone else can. Thanks... yeah this will be a miss or a graze at best... fits the season perfectly. Inside 4 days now.... asking for a lot to get this to be a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Thanks... yeah this will be a miss or a graze at best... fits the season perfectly. Inside 4 days now.... asking for a lot to get this to be a decent event. A few inches definitely wouldn't be hard to do in SE areas. But as Will and I were saying...I'm not a fan of these setups unless this really had room to amp up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm fully on board for a good hit Thursday. That ensemble support is hard to ignore. We've seen these so many times over the years. Op runs see it, lose it and ensembles get stronger and closer every run . Then op runs pick it up again . Should be a solid event and best case is SNE biggest snowfall of winter You sure know how to set yourself up for disappointment. Definitely possible it's a very solid event but not sure I've seen you go all in based on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The ENS always follow the op. This is going to be a regionwide SNE hit.. and probably up into CNE.. SE ridge flex and baroclinic zone near shore . Invest in this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: You sure know how to set yourself up for disappointment. Definitely possible it's a very solid event but not sure I've seen you go all in based on the GEFS. He just told us not to use the GFS, but is using the GEFS for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: He just told us not to use the GFS, but is using the GEFS for Thursday. Using past climo and analogs and GEFS as support. It's a nice looking setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Using past climo and analogs and GEFS as support. It's a nice looking setup Looks like a fast mover with very little room to amplify.... not sure I'd call that a nice setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like a fast mover with very little room to amplify.... not sure I'd call that a nice setup Shocking you are downplaying a snowstorm. Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He just told us not to use the GFS, but is using the GEFS for Thursday. 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Using past climo and analogs and GEFS as support. It's a nice looking setup Analogs look great. If you enjoy LES and upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Shocking you are downplaying a snowstorm. Shocking I didn't say it wouldn't happen.... I'm downplaying the potential based on a number of mitigating factors. The odds are against it... no doubt about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The only guidance that has a decent signal is the GEFS. Most everything else doesn't look to hot now. So why would anybody be "all in" for a solid region wide event in SNE FROM THIS? When this goes down the tubes tonight, he'll have a whole different attitude tmrw morning.. it'll be winter is over ..bring on Morch lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Eps individual members are pretty meh... decent camp that is way out to sea. Ill take the 978 50 miles east of the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Ya Wouldn't right it off just yet...but this is looking like most everything else this season, which is pretty paltry/or a miss. It hasn't gained any steam today...that's not a good sign in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Meh.... a graze still on the 18z GFS... looks weaker too... probably not a good sign. the gefs can show whatever they want... at some point we need the op to come on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 at least its still there....wait for gefs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 Just now, Powderboy413 said: at least its still there....wait for gefs now It's there but we're just about inside 4 days now. I'd also say this run is slightly worse than 12z. Going to need more than ensemble support pretty soon here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like a fast mover with very little room to amplify.... not sure I'd call that a nice setup Its only Sunday Be happy the wave is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It's there but we're just about inside 4 days now. I'd also say this run is slightly worse than 12z. Going to need more than ensemble support pretty soon here A small change means you have warning snow. As it stands now you're not that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: A small change means you have warning snow. As it stands now you're not that far off. A small change also means nothing... goes both ways. see what 00z shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 RGEM had decent hit here before changeover Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Analogs look great. If you enjoy LES and upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Shocking you are downplaying a snowstorm. Shocking The two of you are polar opposites. I hope this works out for you guys but calling this a "snowstorm" at this point in time seems a bit much. But anything is on the table at 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: A small change also means nothing... goes both ways. see what 00z shows True. These thread the needle deals are tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 I thought gefs looked good and maybe even a tad nw with the low. Precip looks about the same as 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 The GEFS looked pretty good, but still a huge spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 18z gefs pretty similar to 12z. QPF maybe trimmed a hair all around... especially on the north edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2017 Share Posted February 5, 2017 31 minutes ago, Morch Madness said: The GEFS looked pretty good, but still a huge spread Looks alot better than 12z down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 6, 2017 Share Posted February 6, 2017 22 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks alot better than 12z down here glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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