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Model Mayhem IV!


Typhoon Tip

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  On 2/4/2017 at 11:08 PM, CoastalWx said:

That's gonna happen though. But there is a clear reason why you average more than they do and by a significant amount. You'll get yours eventually. 

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Lol it is funny ever since he lost it on Kevin in 11 and went off on regression to the mean he can't get that one up on Kev, after all this is really what it's about. I mean who thinks they got shafted anywhere in ENE in 15 relative to anyone in the same area.

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Funny...if big bombs show on gfs some peeps say its fantasy fodder but if nothing shows, the same peeps have the winter is over blues. A true cant win scenario unless a 2 footer is knocking hard on their door. Truth is, many good systems pop up in the D4  /5 range so getting emotionally invested beyond that one way or another either crushes your dreams or makes you dust off your swim trunks. And besides the snow pack snobs who worry about tomorrows melt, we all would take a big one very late in the season. Sh*t is far from over, hold it together.... and stop embarassing the region. 

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  On 2/5/2017 at 1:16 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Funny...if big bombs show on gfs some peeps say its fantasy fodder but if nothing shows, the same peeps have the winter is over blues. A true cant win scenario unless a 2 footer is knocking hard on their door. Truth is, many good systems pop up in the D4  /5 range so getting emotionally invested beyond that one way or another either crushes your dreams or makes you dust off your swim trunks. And besides the snow pack snobs who worry about tomorrows melt, we all would take a big one very late in the season. Sh*t is far from over, hold it together.... and stop embarassing the region. 

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The best part of the winter on here are the melts. 

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Tuesday AM looks a bit interesting, especially back here across CT.  Very steep lapse rates advection in and both NAM and GFS suggest a nice little dry punch working in between like 500 and 650mb.  That could really help to generate either some convection or convective-like elements...maybe some thunder snow/sleet/freezing rain or whatever?  

Whole system seems like a mess though...no real good strong mid or upper level jet forcing moving overhead, best LLJ works off the coast but 850 jet increases late afternoon.  Seems like a whole mess of parameters not really lining up together.  

Also, given degree of warm sectoring ahead of the cold front, if we're able to hold onto those steep lapse rates Wednesday we could see a forced line develop...pretty impressive mid-level jet punches in ahead of the front.  

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  On 2/5/2017 at 1:22 AM, powderfreak said:

18z GFS was a fun run.  Active.

Eyewall's woes would continue though...5" BTV and 23"/27" MVL/MPV lol.

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It would be better if those 5" all came in one event rather than spread out over the course of 384 hours. Just accumulate to 5.4" and keep the streak alive.

Or would it be worse to have BTV issue a warning only to fall short of 6"?

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  On 2/5/2017 at 1:22 AM, Ginx snewx said:

The best part of the winter on here are the melts. 

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It is, dont disagree. But man, folks from other regions browse here and what a bunch of spoiled bratty if i dont get max snows on my nips like whipped cream topped with a cherry attitude, gives the area a bad rep. 

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  On 2/5/2017 at 1:37 AM, Powderboy413 said:

I think the chance for a big snowstorm will come during the last week of February.If we still have a -ao and +pna I can see potential for a big one. Fingers crossed because I haven't had a winter storm warning around here since feb 2015 lol

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The best bet would be to have a system coinciding with the AO heading towards negative territory.  This would allow for the trough to dig with the trough axis extending into the SE and with the AO heading negative at this time (hopefully NAO too) would favor riding building west into Atlantic preventing an escape out to sea.  If a -AO comes into place before hand and we see the AO tank as negative as some projections show (very tough forecast...a lot depends on how stratosphere exactly evolves) there is a strong likelihood for suppression.  

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  On 2/5/2017 at 1:31 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It is, dont disagree. But man, folks from other regions browse here and what a bunch of spoiled bratty if i dont get max snows on my nips like whipped cream topped with a cherry attitude, gives the area a bad rep. 

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Who cares we are the ugly step children anyways. Lol Most of it is faux melt , well besides Ray

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  On 2/5/2017 at 2:54 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Nam is still out of its range but there isn't much sign of warm sector hitting the interior on that run. Prob wouldn't spike until FROPA

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What was the major difference between the 18z NAM and GFS as to why the GFS was much quicker with the warmth at 850 than the NAM?  Only able to look at stuff from my phone so hard to do everything but what I was thinking was it having to do with perhaps strength or track of 850 low?  

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  On 2/5/2017 at 1:27 AM, DavisStraight said:

Is that 38 the summit of Mt washington?

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I think it's my house if I get my snow gun going lol. 

Yes that should be Mt Washington, and Whitefield to its west. Numbers seem very high especially for Whitefield, we'll probably see much more downsloping and warm temps in the higher elevations around me

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