512high Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro with more CAD this run. Gonna have to watch for a tuck too in eastern areas. Little meso low. ORH- when this passes through, tailed end looks colder again, any chance that moves in quicker to change back to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, 512high said: ORH- when this passes through, tailed end looks colder again, any chance that moves in quicker to change back to snow? No. The dynamics for good precip are long gone by the time the cold funnels back in. At least down at our latitude. Further north they may get a period of snow at the end. The bigger concern for S NH this run would be prolonged icing. Prob more than 6-8 hours worth. Luckily it isn't a ton of qpf but it could make things pretty nasty for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: No. The dynamics for good precip are long gone by the time the cold funnels back in. At least down at our latitude. Further north they may get a period of snow at the end. The bigger concern for S NH this run would be prolonged icing. Prob more than 6-8 hours worth. Luckily it isn't a ton of qpf but it could make things pretty nasty for a while. ok thanks,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 So glad I have checked out. Looking forward to longer days and warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: So glad I have checked out. Looking forward to longer days and warmer temps. I couldn't agree more, even if we did have a big event seems it would melt away quick, i can feel that sun angle, I'm just a fall/winter person, oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: How was 2015 for you? Relative to climo conpared to area just south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: several being 1.7 Ignorant post. Relative to climo in the aggregate the past several seasons, I'm inferior to most of sne east of I 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 27 minutes ago, weathafella said: So glad I have checked out. Looking forward to longer days and warmer temps. Yup. Eager to finish readying pit2 for rental season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ignorant post. Relative to climo in the aggregate the past several seasons, I'm inferior to most of sne east of I 91. JP fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 I wonder if that trailing sw over the western plains that continues to show up on guidance around hr 66 can help flatten this guy out in the way of destructive interence. I mean the whole evolution per the GFS is odd in that the main system should really be the trailing SW which contains the better UL dynamics. The GFS eventually consolidates things but I doubt that evolution occurs verbatim. I'm beginning to think the southern stream lead disturbance fizzles and this becomes entirely a northern stream event--similar to tomorrow's system (only deeper). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Anyone look at the AO recently? This certainly argues for an arctic blast leading up to the storm on tues/wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ignorant post. Relative to climo in the aggregate the past several seasons, I'm inferior to most of sne east of I 91. No. SE MA averages maybe a bit more than half of your climo. So in good years like 2012-13 they will double, if you double, it tends to be a blockbuster for all and they will triple. That doesn't mean they did better than you anymore than when you get 100 and RDU gets 30 RDU had a better year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 What storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: No. SE MA averages maybe a bit more than half of your climo. So in good years like 2012-13 they will double, if you double, it tends to be a blockbuster for all and they will triple. That doesn't mean they did better than you anymore than when you get 100 and RDU gets 30 RDU had a better year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What storm? The one in 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: No. SE MA averages maybe a bit more than half of your climo. So in good years like 2012-13 they will double, if you double, it tends to be a blockbuster for all and they will triple. That doesn't mean they did better than you anymore than when you get 100 and RDU gets 30 RDU had a better year. He's mostly just grumpy that he got less snowfall than places in SE MA for 3 winters in a row. But whatever. It happens. Nobody who is more than 100 miles west, north, or southwest is going to feel remotely sorry...it's still been a good few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The one in 3-4 days. The AO going negative next week isn't going to have any effect on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: He's mostly just grumpy that he got less snowfall than places in SE MA for 3 winters in a row. But whatever. It happens. Nobody who is more than 100 miles west, north, or southwest is going to feel remotely sorry...it's still been a good few years. I mean cmon 107 in 2015, like Jerry said he goes 200% I go 250% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: No. SE MA averages maybe a bit more than half of your climo. So in good years like 2012-13 they will double, if you double, it tends to be a blockbuster for all and they will triple. That doesn't mean they did better than you anymore than when you get 100 and RDU gets 30 RDU had a better year. Ray did better than SE MA in 13-14. I think he may have been close to me that year...but I thought he was 70+" which would best pretty much all of SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Ray did better than SE MA in 13-14. I think he may have been close to me that year...but I thought he was 70+" which would best pretty much all of SE MA. rays saying relative to climo he got the shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: rays saying relative to climo he got the shaft I feel like the higher your annual average is the more relative shaft you are going to get. Your chances for higher percentage of normal is much diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: rays saying relative to climo he got the shaft I know what he means....but when you take into account the SD of snowfall in SE MA...it's loaded with variance. His is more stable relatively speaking. I mean SE MA could get skunked the next few years too. Nobody remembers how bad far SE MA got porked in 10-11. If you want to talk anomalies...then I would say from MQE-GHG and points in between are definitely taking no prisoners relative to avg. They have been the sweet spot relative to avg. I'm sure it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I feel like the higher your annual average is the more relative shaft you are going to get. Your chances for higher percentage of normal is much diminished. of course, back to this storm, minimal damage up north, more qpf to the pack with sleet and then a solid old school overunning event on tap. nice winter for the big boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: of course, back to this storm, minimal damage up north, more qpf to the pack with sleet and then a solid old school overunning event on tap. nice winter for the big boys Far from tossing in the towel up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 44 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I feel like the higher your annual average is the more relative shaft you are going to get. Your chances for higher percentage of normal is much diminished. That's why you don't use percentage. Use standard deviation. That normalizes all comparisons. 2 standard deviations for BOS might be 175-200% of climo while it is 150% for Ray. So the percentages won't be accurate in telling the story...it's almost an apples to oranges comparison To put it in extreme context, nobody would say ORH got shafted relative to climo if they got 110" (160% of climo) vs DCA getting 40" (260%) of climo. Those are both pretty similar frequency occurances...so they have very similar standard dev values...but if you only went on "percent of climo", you'd be under the impression that DCA had a much better winter than ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 Isotherm, who for my money is the best of the best, is guardedly optimistic post February 15th. Don't fold em just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 34 minutes ago, dryslot said: Far from tossing in the towel up here. In reality, nobody on February 4th should be throwing in the towel anywhere in New England. Astronomically we are only half way through winter...6.5 weeks down, 6.5 weeks to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 In reality, nobody on February 4th should be throwing in the towel anywhere in New England. Astronomically we are only half way through winter...6.5 weeks down, 6.5 weeks to go.True but some have checked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Isotherm, who for my money is the best of the best, is guardedly optimistic post February 15th. Don't fold em just yet. All based on a SSW that it's too late in season to help winter unless you like Mid Morch snow that melts next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2017 Share Posted February 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: All based on a SSW that it's too late in season to help winter unless you like Mid Morch snow that melts next day lol it's been melting the next day since this season began though...so what's the difference this year?? But I here you..I'm not banking on that strat warm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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