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Model Mayhem IV!

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Close enough to feel the chill when it's dry.... but warm enough to rain when we get moisture.

I won't melt because I'm not far from average.... but outside of a 3 day stretch in early jan... this winter has been incredibly forgettable 

You sniffed the sarcasm.

How astute.

I'd like to see a vortex just plop its a $$ over Anchorage for the next 8 weeks.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Posted

Kind of crazy how last year we expected a rat and it ended up being ok with a big storm. Even though in a Nino you expect big storms. This year we expected a decent winter and it's turned in a complete crapper with wire to wire warmth and we may not see much more snow. But you don't expect big storms in Ninas , just nickels and dimes . So far we've faired ok with those, but our luck has run out .

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Kind of crazy how last year we expected a rat and it ended up being ok with a big storm. Even though in a Nino you expect big storms. This year we expected a decent winter and it's turned in a complete crapper with wire to wire warmth and we may not see much more snow. But you don't expect big storms in Ninas , just nickels and dimes . So far we've faired ok with those, but our luck has run out .

There was no big storm for many of us last winter and we were 50 pct of normal snowfall....it was an absolute ratter

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Kind of crazy how last year we expected a rat and it ended up being ok with a big storm. Even though in a Nino you expect big storms. This year we expected a decent winter and it's turned in a complete crapper with wire to wire warmth and we may not see much more snow. But you don't expect big storms in Ninas , just nickels and dimes . So far we've faired ok with those, but our luck has run out .

December was average for temps. 

Anyways. This system isn't even in nam range yet...id still keep a close eye on it. However, this system is trending very similarly to 12/17 in that as we got closer, the high got weaker and it got more seaward...that was after having almost a perfect high position 96 hours out. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

December was average for temps. 

Anyways. This system isn't even in nam range yet...id still keep a close eye on it. However, this system is trending very similarly to 12/17 in that as we got closer, the high got weaker and it got more seaward...that was after having almost a perfect high position 96 hours out. 

I'm holding no hope. Negative trends this close in are never good. This ones gonna rain to Maine when it's all said and done. Only thing to look forward to is big wind IMO

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Boston missed out by 10 miles on a large event. It can happen. They seem to be a local min in snow compared to all direction, even just south of them. 

All direction?

BS ...I have 20".

Who cares what could have been...it wasn't. 

Every loser could have won.....except they didn't. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Glad we don't live there. 

That is my point.....I've been porked as badly as Boston. 

I understand that we have had worse pattern, Scott.....but there are also prohibitive factors this season...perhaps the rusty coat hanger fortunes would have been enhances had we a modicum of blocking....or a perhaps better cyclogenesis may have availed of lower southern heights.

There are underlying flaws that have allowed this to suck so badly where it is...and there is also the subjective element here. The whole "it wasn't that bad everywhere else" exacerbates the issue for me, as well as others....some would also rather just go AK vortex, than continue with the sadistic cold/dry-cut-NNE-CJ shuffle.

This is why 2010 was so horrid to me...I'd take a wall-to-wall torch over this.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm quite certain 20" is well below where I should be.....and I see more of the same for Feb.

No Tobin...already jumped and passed.

I'm at peace with it, but won't understate how much it has sucked.

I'm talking overall climo. It seems that Logan perhaps averages less snow than north or south. Even Hingham snow avg is a few inches more since 1960.  But for this year, there has been a bad luck factor, especially your way. Who knows though, it can change in one storm.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

Yesterday I placed a caveat near the bottom of one of my post regarding the timing/placement of the lead-side high pressure in Ontario; namely, that if it should modulate toward a quicker passage east and/or become weaker in future model cycles, I would have less issue with warmer solutions over all...

Well, guess what - that appears to be precisely what took place.

Not a lot ... perhaps 6 to 12 hour's worth compared to 12z yesterday, both the 00z Euro and GFS guidance' are doing just that, and justly so ..the boundary layer down here gets left more open to the assault of WAA, and the models go ahead and blithely remove cold and actually do warm sector ...albeit tainted and junky of course.  The sensible difference is/was whether after some snow/mix to begin, does the event go to ice and a triple point, versus a warm flood... For now, the latter is favored based on these modeling changes.

At this point, I have no issue with the Lakes transit of that low.  I mean, for one... the NAO is positive technically; the storm track correlation for +NAOs is in fact turning them polarward prior to the 80th longitude. But, the models have been beady eyed obsessed with owing to that despite any countering veracious arguments - so it is what it is... And, it's only D4 for Michigan, so for them that is inside the Euro's wheelhouse ;)

Anyway, the only hope and salvation for recouping a winter taste from this synoptic evolution...was that high. Now, seeing that the models are toying with receding it quicker now too, we're getting darn close to 86'ing said hope as well. 

Still, one thing I have found interesting about the operational efforts in the weather this winter, is that no one has been correct at almost any of the times/circumstances?  Some of us have been 50, 60...80%, but this has been an irritating journey (eerily so at time..) where subsequent model depictions quite literally look specifically designed to countermand veracious observations and applied theory. That's creepy really -  ... And likewise, I could see four or five more cycles where that high inches ever more quicker off the table and less ... getting the board to completely ignore this event, only to have the high suddenly modeled back some two days from now ...everyone gets back on board, if for no other reason, because there's nothing else to follow, only to have the high slip off in the verification - the whole saga as though one way or the other, the atmosphere's truth must remain elusive.

Haha. You know... maybe it is like those Electron double -split experiments.  It's the creepy effect (or is it 'affect' in this context?) when Physicists monitor electrons as they are guided through apertures, the electrons always choose an opposing route/slit where they can't being monitored. It really is as though they "don't want to be seen"  - 

In this nutty comparison... the science of operational Meteorology has been benefiting from ever improving technologies. Perhaps all the electrons that intrinsically enrapture all molecules in the atmosphere are getting annoyed that the science is closing in on predicting matters ... and just like the double-slit experiments, if perhaps en masse, are conspiring against us - muah ahahhahha.  It's been petty about it, too - incredible.   

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