Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2017 Author Share Posted February 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: OK, so Tip are you saying that you think this High to the north is going to hold longer and stronger to squeeze this low south/east?? I'd be inclined to think so... but just to clarify, it doesn't mean 'forcing' the low necessarily SE either. Will mentioned 'triple point'... That's a Met term for where the occluded boundary connects with the cold and warm fronts... Any time a warm sectors fails to move along with the low pressure , a triple point forms (the warm sector is lifted above the wrap around air mass).... That process would pinch off the warm sector from getting much north of (typically in those cold high bumper scenarios) of LI or the south coast. When a cold high is in place up there, that pretty much ko's the ability for warm air to scour out the interior because the low levels go into what is call ageostrophic wind and...well, it's complicating. Bottom line (puns always intended..) that resistance assists in stopping the warm penetration. anyway it's really about preventing the north penetration of the warm front more so than forcing the the primary SE. That's usually more having to do with confluent mid level flow up in Canada N of the Lakes. Lows will tend to lift aggressively N toward Michigan/western NY and so forth, then screech to a halt there because the mechanics aloft stop moving N at that point... Get's into Miller B stuff there after. In this Euro run, there isn't enough confluence to stop the mid/u/a support for the low moving up N and taking the surface low with it.. BUT, there is enough lead side denser cold air to stop the warm sector/ force the triple point east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Stakes aren't that high for sne imo...do you keep an inch or two of crust, or don't you. I'd rather melt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 NAM is so close to hitting our region with heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 looks to me eps says op is too harsh with the inferno at d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM is so close to hitting our region with heavy snows. come on bro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: come on bro.... Look at it for crying out loud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 hours ago, dryslot said: Still a strong cad signal even with a less then favorable solution this run on the GFS. Odd to see H8 at 1C for RUM while the 2m temp is 10F. That would ensure the sleet is fully frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Look at it for crying out loud I am from for crying out loud, really loud.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I am from for crying out loud, really loud.... 6"+ for Cape Cod, MA last event!!@! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 James, tuck in the weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: James, tuck in the weenie. Silence of the Lambs? sew it up and in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Would be nice if we could repeat last Feb 3rd with the big cutter followed 2 days later with the tail end Charlie, 12Z GFS wasn't far off from that, little sharper and would be, but hey congrats outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 If you just change like 7 things on the NAM it would have shown the Dawn Awakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Silence of the Lambs? sew it up and in? Put the NAM in the basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 18z GFS is lower with heights over our area and higher in the west at 84h...that's prob gonna mean a bit better storm outcome than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 I'm hanging it up. This winter had promise, but it wound up blowing chunks. I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: James, tuck in the weenie. This one cracked me up. James of La Mancha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm hanging it up. Nice melt , I just read the Feb 2nd 2015 storm where you melted big time just prior to gettng a foot, see ya next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm hanging it up. This winter had promise, but it wound up blowing chunks. I'm done. Not bad...you lasted longer than Jerry and Ray which I wouldn't have bet on...maybe Ray and you would have been a close call in preseason betting, but not Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 lol, Next year we need to have an opening line on the melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: lol, Next year we need to have an opening line on the melts. I will take Ray every year and win 85% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I will take Ray every year and win 85% of the time Yeah but the lines will take that into account...MPM and Ray won't have big payouts because they are favorites, lol. Like if you bet on Jerry this year, that would have been a good value...his payout is def higher. He normally doesn't melt that early. I prob would put Jerry at like 25 to 1 in preseason whereas MPM is like 2 to 1, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 GFS is a nice thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah but the lines will take that into account...MPM and Ray won't have big payouts because they are favorites, lol. Like if you bet on Jerry this year, that would have been a good value...his payout is def higher. He normally doesn't melt that early. I prob would put Jerry at like 25 to 1 in preseason whereas MPM is like 2 to 1, lol. yea Jerry would have been an easy choice though with his huge winter call, the ones that expect the most usually melt early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah but the lines will take that into account...MPM and Ray won't have big payouts because they are favorites, lol. Like if you bet on Jerry this year, that would have been a good value...his payout is def higher. He normally doesn't melt that early. I prob would put Jerry at like 25 to 1 in preseason whereas MPM is like 2 to 1, lol. Eyewall would be taken of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is a nice thump. Check out the difference in the GOAK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, mreaves said: Eyewall would be taken of the board. Lol, yeah I forgot about him. He'd prob have like 1 to 4 odds, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 GFS is def colder on the front end, but the primary is more wrapped up than the 12z run...that's a trend I would want to see reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is def colder on the front end, but the primary is more wrapped up than the 12z run...that's a trend I would want to see reverse. Geezus thats a birch bender in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2017 Share Posted February 2, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS is def colder on the front end, but the primary is more wrapped up than the 12z run...that's a trend I would want to see reverse. Probably the best we can do. It's gonna go near Toronto's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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